The gender gap in the Democratic primaries

[Asian Nazi]

I think another important thing to note is that very very few people are voting against Clinton or against Sanders in the primaries.  Both candidates have above an 80% favorability rating among Democratic voters.  Clinton's speech was cheered at the Sanders rally, and I'd assume vice versa.  Voters are seeing this as a friendly popularity contest, not some sort of existential struggle or trench war.  

[NeverAgain]

Let's not pretend Bernie Sanders would have nearly as much enthusiastic support from young white men if his name was Betsy Sanders. It cuts both ways.

To be fair, Betsy is a pretty ugly name.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I can't seem to find any exit polls that combine both age and gender, but CBS has an exit poll that asked about marital status, and there is an interesting married/unmarried divide.


Gender by marital status

Clinton   Sanders   Demographic
    52%        43%      Married men (27%)
    60%        34%      Married women (33%)
    30%        66%      Unmarried men (16%)
    43%        53%      Unmarried women (25%)


Unmarried men are Sanders' prime demographic, married women are Hillary's, and unmarried women and married men are relatively competitive groups.

[Asian Nazi]

I can't seem to find any exit polls that combine both age and gender, but CBS has an exit poll that asked about marital status, and there is an interesting married/unmarried divide.


Gender by marital status

Clinton   Sanders   Demographic
    52%        43%      Married men (27%)
    60%        34%      Married women (33%)
    30%        66%      Unmarried men (16%)
    43%        53%      Unmarried women (25%)


Unmarried men are Sanders' prime demographic, married women are Hillary's, and unmarried women and married men are relatively competitive groups.

I'm pretty sure this is almost entirely a function of the age gap.

[This account no longer in use.]

Let's not pretend Bernie Sanders would have nearly as much enthusiastic support from young white men if his name was Betsy Sanders. It cuts both ways.

To be fair, Betsy is a pretty ugly name.

It's better than 'Bernadette' proposed by others.

[psychprofessor]

right now we are seeing the first votes of mostly white men and women...i'm not so sure younger blacks and hispanics will break the same way white millennials are.

[This account no longer in use.]

right now we are seeing the first votes of mostly white men and women...i'm not so sure younger blacks and hispanics will break the same way white millennials are.

I'm pretty sure millennials are more or less breaking for Sanders regardless of race. It's more of the older minorities that are heavily Clinton.

[Beet]

If you're a millennial left-of-center, your universe of information is almost entirely pro-Sanders and anti-Clinton. Millennial women are certainly more inclined to support a woman candidate, but they would have to be able to justify it to themselves at a base level before the identity advantage/disadvantage could come into play. Without *any* significant positive information stream about Clinton, there is no room for difference of opinion. No matter how much more inclined I am to support a candidate from my home state, for instance, I will not if I hear nothing positive about him. White men largely control the information streams, by virtue of holding more positions and being better informed, than any other demographic, and this is the real advantage for the white male demographic, despite being a small minority in the Democratic party. Progressives and other ideologues also hold an advantage as they tend to be better informed. (Also, there's the fact that Clinton has a tremendous tin ear for what would appeal to young people.)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I can't seem to find any exit polls that combine both age and gender, but CBS has an exit poll that asked about marital status, and there is an interesting married/unmarried divide.


Gender by marital status

Clinton   Sanders   Demographic
    52%        43%      Married men (27%)
    60%        34%      Married women (33%)
    30%        66%      Unmarried men (16%)
    43%        53%      Unmarried women (25%)


Unmarried men are Sanders' prime demographic, married women are Hillary's, and unmarried women and married men are relatively competitive groups.

Age and household income could might completely explain the difference between unmarried and married.

[psychprofessor]

right now we are seeing the first votes of mostly white men and women...i'm not so sure younger blacks and hispanics will break the same way white millennials are.

I'm pretty sure millennials are more or less breaking for Sanders regardless of race. It's more of the older minorities that are heavily Clinton.

how are you pretty sure? we don't have any data and what we do have seems to indicate blacks breaking to clinton along the lines of 70/30. now that can change, but my basic point is, right now the data indicates white millennials overwhelmingly supporting sanders. i'm not convinced he will garner the same support with people of color until i see votes in more ethnically diverse states.

[HAnnA MArin County]

There are a lot of people, mostly women, voting for Hillary just because of her gender. These vastly outnumber the tiny amount of people who might vote against her because of her gender.

Ah yes, it was only a matter of time before the old disproven "you only like her because you both have vaginas" trope was brought out to invalidate the feelings and opinions of women who support Hillary Clinton.


If you actually look at the responses of Democrats in total and Democratic women, their views align with the Democratic establishment, and thus, Hillary Clinton. Those polls are objective facts, not your opinions that you keep pulling out of your end to cope with losing.

Hillary being a woman is the icing on the cake for these women, not the main reason. You're not a woman so I don't think you would know why it is important to these women that they elect someone who can connect with them and has experienced many of the same things they have. I know that I sure don't.

The main reason women support Hillary Clinton is because they support her plans for making college more affordable, expanding Obamacare, raising the minimum wage, creating an infrastructure bank, gun control, closing tax loopholes, regulating financial services sector, taxing high-frequency trading, healthcare and caregiver tax credits, rescheduling marijuana, criminal justice reform, restricting the usage of the death penalty, a two-state solution, crushing ISIS, etc. (list goes on and on)

If Bernie Sanders was Bernadette Sanders, you can bet Hillary would still be winning BECAUSE SHE ALIGNS WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEMOCRATS' VIEWS.

Just accept the fact that your guy is losing because his base is too small and most Democrats don't actually want Bernie Sanders. Stop whining all the damn time. Sheesh.

^^Agree 100%!

Ironic that those sentiments are coming from the same faction who got their panties in a wad every time someone said that black people were only voting for Obama because he's black. I guess to them, racism is bad but sexism is more negotiable, especially when it comes to trashing Hillary Clinton.

[seb_pard]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/where-sanders-clinton-are-dominating-n505381

I don't know  if this poll is accurate but the results are very interesting, showing a strong age gap, even with minorities (specially with latinos).

[Shadows]

There is an AGE gap, no Gender Gap. Sanders is doing absolutely amazingly among younger women. Amazing

80% plus votes from young women under the age of 30. Hillary is in trouble. Fox interviewed young women - a huge section said they would skip voting in the general, called Hillary dishonest & said the email is a big issue.

I think another important thing to note is that very very few people are voting against Clinton or against Sanders in the primaries.  Both candidates have above an 80% favorability rating among Democratic voters.  Clinton's speech was cheered at the Sanders rally, and I'd assume vice versa.  Voters are seeing this as a friendly popularity contest, not some sort of existential struggle or trench war.  

There was a huge "You are a lier" chant in her rally. I doubt she can enthuse young people to vote her. They never vote anyways & even now 18% is much less than the 23% for Obama. Young people have a huge distrust with her & are less likely to vote.

Older people have no issues in making a deal with the devil, figuratively as to say.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

80% plus votes from young women under the age of 30. Hillary is in trouble. Fox interviewed young women - a huge section said they would skip voting in the general, called Hillary dishonest & said the email is a big issue.

We hear this every election from both sides and it never happens.

On November 8th, after the primaries are forgotten, Bernie campaigns for her, and months of non-stop media coverage of Trump's insane proposals, these people will be in line to vote for her. There's too much at stake to let Trump win, and anyone  who says they're going to sit out the election because their candidate lost the primary is a sore loser.

[Shadows]

80% plus votes from young women under the age of 30. Hillary is in trouble. Fox interviewed young women - a huge section said they would skip voting in the general, called Hillary dishonest & said the email is a big issue.

We hear this every election from both sides and it never happens.

On November 8th, after the primaries are forgotten, Bernie campaigns for her, and months of non-stop media coverage of Trump's insane proposals, these people will be in line to vote for her. There's too much at stake to let Trump win, and anyone  who says they're going to sit out the election because their candidate lost the primary is a sore loser.

Which world are you in? They never vote. 80% of the youth never vote? What is the total % of people voting? Less than 50%?

People NEVER vote especially young people. And for most of them THIS IS A ONCE IN A LIFETIME THING. They will have their hearts broken. Bernie can say what they want - Anti-Hillary disdain is one of the reasons fueling this pro-Bernie rise.

This is the same reason Democrats are so dumb & loose elections. They thing as if their fathers have bought the youth, not realizing that even with this Bernie wave 18-29 age group is only 18% vis-a-vis 23% for Obama, though Bernie wins a greater share. It is NOT EASY to get these people to vote.

And Hillary has to inspire these people & connect with them - Old people can vote to keep the GOP out, Young people want a positive vote, not a negative vote to stop X or Y.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

80% plus votes from young women under the age of 30. Hillary is in trouble. Fox interviewed young women - a huge section said they would skip voting in the general, called Hillary dishonest & said the email is a big issue.

We hear this every election from both sides and it never happens.

On November 8th, after the primaries are forgotten, Bernie campaigns for her, and months of non-stop media coverage of Trump's insane proposals, these people will be in line to vote for her. There's too much at stake to let Trump win, and anyone  who says they're going to sit out the election because their candidate lost the primary is a sore loser.

Which world are you in? They never vote. 80% of the youth never vote? What is the total % of people voting? Less than 50%?

People NEVER vote especially young people. And for most of them THIS IS A ONCE IN A LIFETIME THING. They will have their hearts broken. Bernie can say what they want - Anti-Hillary disdain is one of the reasons fueling this pro-Bernie rise.

This is the same reason Democrats are so dumb & loose elections. They thing as if their fathers have bought the youth, not realizing that even with this Bernie wave 18-29 age group is only 18% vis-a-vis 23% for Obama, though Bernie wins a greater share. It is NOT EASY to get these people to vote.

And Hillary has to inspire these people & connect with them - Old people can vote to keep the GOP out, Young people want a positive vote, not a negative vote to stop X or Y.

Hillary Clinton has an 70% - 80% favorability rating amongst Democrats. Despite the mudslinging in this primary, her proposals are not that different from Bernie's. Compare their websites' issues section (especially the college one; it's almost exactly the same).

The youth vote is important but it does not single-handedly decide elections. The enthusiasm gap is completely oversated. In 2004 the 18-29 cohort made up 17% of the electorate, but in 2008 it increased only to 18%. The entire change was in the margin, from 54% Kerry to 66% Obama. You really think Hillary is going to fall that far with younger voters being far more minority in 2016 than in 2004?

She doesn't get very good "trustworthy" marks but that doesn't mean she is instantly dead in a general election. That doesn't mean she can't fix her image via campaigning. Elections are not decided in February. She's been viciously attacked almost non-stop for 24+ years, yet here we are again, with her in the lead.

In November, these voters will turn out to vote as they always eventually do in the end. Hillary Clinton is loved by Democratic voters outside of a few disgruntled ones, and has experienced many campaigns (some better, some worse), and with Obama and Sanders and virtually every vestige of the Democratic Party gunning for her, in addition to the tattered remains of the image of the GOP, she will win.

Sanders supporter may be more vocal on the internet and show up to his rallies, but that doesn't mean Democrats hate Hillary and won't turn out for her. Objective polling data shows that.