How the hell did Rubio beat his polls by so much?

[Lyin' Steve]

The guy's a scrub, how did he pull it off?

[Ronnie]

Unexpectedly strong turnout of college moderates nervous about Cruz and scared to death of Trump?

Rubio isn't a moderate by any stretch of the imagination, and the fact that Cruz and Trump have allowed candidates like him to frame their policies as comparably reasonable is beyond frightening.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Obviously the establishment moved heaven and earth to prop him up. Branstad, Grassley and Ernst must have used their personal influence and political networks to bring votes for him.
Also, all this brainwashing about his "momentum" after some point it became self-fulflling prophecy.

[BlueSwan]

He didn't necessarily beat them by that much. The latest polls had Rubio surging and maybe that surge just continued. It has been seen before (like Kerry, 2004).

[Bob Dole '96]

He's enormously likable and is one of the most talented candidates either party has seen in 30 years, Obama included.  As people got to know him they liked him and his debating ability is second to none.  I think he cruises to the nomination after losing a handful of states to Cruz.  He'll crush Hillary and that will be that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He's enormously likable and is one of the most talented candidates either party has seen in 30 years, Obama included.  As people got to know him they liked him and his debating ability is second to none.  I think he cruises to the nomination after losing a handful of states to Cruz.  He'll crush Hillary and that will be that.

Nice to have you here Mrs. Rubio.

[Zanas]

He didn't beat his last polls by that much. Moderate people previously unwilling to participate in the caucuses just decided on the last two days to bother showing up and cast a vote for the "sane and establishment moderate that will not make us conservatives look like moron or freaks".

You will object that he is not a moderate. But since when do people know anything about anything, especially about political ideologies and issues ?

[Trapsy]

He's enormously likable and is one of the most talented candidates either party has seen in 30 years, Obama included.  As people got to know him they liked him and his debating ability is second to none.  I think he cruises to the nomination after losing a handful of states to Cruz.  He'll crush Hillary and that will be that.

HAHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

EDIT: Rubio please be the nominee I want Obama to tear this guy apart.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

All moderates in Iowa supported Trump (high 40s), so this thread is beyond the usual STUPITY of old Atlas.

[Oakvale]

All moderates in Iowa supported Trump (high 40s), so this thread is beyond the usual STUPITY of old Atlas.

^ THIS.

Anyway the answer is a combination of the shill establishment pulling out all the stops, including FOX News to steal as many votes for Rubio as possible, probably coupled with some voter fraud.

[Vern]

Because at the last minute the "somewhat" conservative voters voted for him

[Averroës Nix]

1. Slight of hand. He didn't outperform the polls by much, but everyone's talking about it so much that we now all believe that he did

2. He probably won more supporters from the lower-tier candidates who underperformed than Cruz did.

3. His last-minute ad buy probably helped. He timed a burst of publicity just early enough to be a topic of conversation, but too early for anyone to damage him.

[EliteLX]

All moderates in Iowa supported Trump (high 40s), so this thread is beyond the usual STUPITY of old Atlas.

^ THIS.

Anyway the answer is a combination of the shill establishment pulling out all the stops, including FOX News to steal as many votes for Rubio as possible, probably coupled with some voter fraud.

It's so funny seeing the panicking sore-loser shills scream "voter fraud" because they don't know how to handle actual results.

[pho]

A combination of a late surge and benefiting from the intimate nature of caucuses suppressing turnout for "less serious" candidates.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The fact that Rubio is considered a moderate is a testament to how far right the GOP has moved. There's really nothing moderate about Rubio, and wrapping himself in God during Iowa really turned me off to him.

[Oakvale]

The fact that Rubio is considered a moderate is a testament to how far right the GOP has moved. There's really nothing moderate about Rubio, and wrapping himself in God during Iowa really turned me off to him.

Yes.

Nix had a great post on AAD about how concerning is that the establishment is throwing their lot in with Rubio because he quite genuinely doesn't seem prepared to be President. It's a scary prospect.

[Asian Nazi]

Voter fraud

[Landslide Lyndon]

The fact that Rubio is considered a moderate is a testament to how far right the GOP has moved. There's really nothing moderate about Rubio, and wrapping himself in God during Iowa really turned me off to him.

Yes.

Nix had a great post on AAD about how concerning is that the establishment is throwing their lot in with Rubio because he quite genuinely doesn't seem prepared to be President. It's a scary prospect.

It's like we are back in 2000 when the establishment blindly supported W.

[Oakvale]

The fact that Rubio is considered a moderate is a testament to how far right the GOP has moved. There's really nothing moderate about Rubio, and wrapping himself in God during Iowa really turned me off to him.

Yes.

Nix had a great post on AAD about how concerning is that the establishment is throwing their lot in with Rubio because he quite genuinely doesn't seem prepared to be President. It's a scary prospect.

It's like we are back in 2000 when the establishment blindly supported W.

I mean, even then Bush had at least governed a large state for six years and had a compelling personal narrative of finding God and giving up the bottle. Rubio has never had a real job, is obviously intellectually simple and has spent his entire career as part of a do-nothing Senate in the 2010s.

[hopper]

Obviously the establishment moved heaven and earth to prop him up. Branstad, Grassley and Ernst must have used their personal influence and political networks to bring votes for him.
Also, all this brainwashing about his "momentum" after some point it became self-fulflling prophecy.

Grassley hasn't endorsed any candidate yet. Yes Branstad doesn't like Cruz and Rubio did support Ernst in 2014 so I understand your post.

On the issue of momentum Rubio's campaigning on Saturday helped him a lot I think.

[hopper]

The fact that Rubio is considered a moderate is a testament to how far right the GOP has moved. There's really nothing moderate about Rubio, and wrapping himself in God during Iowa really turned me off to him.


Yes.

Nix had a great post on AAD about how concerning is that the establishment is throwing their lot in with Rubio because he quite genuinely doesn't seem prepared to be President. It's a scary prospect.

It's like we are back in 2000 when the establishment blindly supported W.

I mean, even then Bush had at least governed a large state for six years and had a compelling personal narrative of finding God and giving up the bottle. Rubio has never had a real job, is obviously intellectually simple and has spent his entire career as part of a do-nothing Senate in the 2010s.

You could replace Rubio's name with Obama back in 2008 except for the God part in the last sentence for conservatives argument against an Obama Presidency. Obama did have jobs though from what I understand when he was younger.

[cinyc]

1. Slight of hand. He didn't outperform the polls by much, but everyone's talking about it so much that we now all believe that he did

2. He probably won more supporters from the lower-tier candidates who underperformed than Cruz did.

3. His last-minute ad buy probably helped. He timed a burst of publicity just early enough to be a topic of conversation, but too early for anyone to damage him.

The Rubio campaign had been advertising in Iowa for months.  He actually cut back on his ad buy for the last two weeks of the campaign, but his ads were still in relatively high rotation during those weeks.  The only true last-minute ad buy was for five 30 minute infomercials that few likely watched, anyway.

The rumored internal polling showed Rubio soaring above 20% in the last days before Iowa.  Cruz pivoted to attack Rubio instead of Trump in his TV ads - so those rumors were probably true.  The public polling never caught up to the internals, but the polls that were last in the field caught some movement toward Rubio.

Rubio won pragmatic late deciders who were looking for the most electable candidate.  That's why he beat the public polling.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

He's enormously likable and is one of the most talented candidates either party has seen in 30 years, Obama included.  As people got to know him they liked him and his debating ability is second to none.  I think he cruises to the nomination after losing a handful of states to Cruz.  He'll crush Hillary and that will be that.

Nice to have you here Mrs. Rubio.

*Mr. Barrios

[hopper]

The fact that Rubio is considered a moderate is a testament to how far right the GOP has moved. There's really nothing moderate about Rubio, and wrapping himself in God during Iowa really turned me off to him.

Yes.

Nix had a great post on AAD about how concerning is that the establishment is throwing their lot in with Rubio because he quite genuinely doesn't seem prepared to be President. It's a scary prospect.

It's like we are back in 2000 when the establishment blindly supported W.

Well Republicans back then always supported "The Next In-Line Presidential Candidate" and Bush W. was "Next In-Line" in 2000. The situation has flipped this cycle where the Republicans have a battle for the nomination and the Dems support "Next In-Line" with Hillary.

[hopper]

The fact that Rubio is considered a moderate is a testament to how far right the GOP has moved. There's really nothing moderate about Rubio, and wrapping himself in God during Iowa really turned me off to him.

Actually Rubio's DW- Nominate Score(0.611) is a little closer to Gerald Ford's Presidential DW-Nominate Score(0.538) than Ronald Reagan's Presidential DW-Nominate Score(0.703.)