NH-Harper Polling: Trump far ahead
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  NH-Harper Polling: Trump far ahead
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Author Topic: NH-Harper Polling: Trump far ahead  (Read 2562 times)
Lief 🗽
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« on: February 03, 2016, 12:17:59 PM »

https://twitter.com/ryangop/status/694929326433787904

Trump 31%
Bush 14%
Kasich 12%
Rubio 10%
Cruz 9%
Christie 6%
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2016, 12:20:16 PM »

Feb. 1-2

Trump: 31
Bush: 14
Kasich: 12
Rubio: 10
Cruz: 9
Christie: 6
Fiorina: 5
Carson: 3
Paul (out): 3
Gilmore/Huckabee (out)/Santorum: 0

http://harperpolling.com/polls/new-hampshire-republican-presidential-primary-poll
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Oakvale
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« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2016, 12:39:55 PM »

This might actually be not a million miles off the result, especially after Rubes gets slaughtered on Saturday.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2016, 12:42:29 PM »

Cruz at 9 after win in Iowa
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2016, 12:46:15 PM »

This might be true. This is the second poll showing Jeb in 2nd, and a lot of word on the ground there is he's doing well, and people are saying to keep an eye on him, sort of like what we heard about Rubio in Iowa.

I'm hopeful Jeb! or Kasich does well, because if they don't, it looks like I'll jump aboard the Hillary train.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2016, 12:52:58 PM »

Favorability amongst likely Republican primary voters:
Candidate — Favorable-Unfavorable (Net)
Trump — 51-47 (+4)
Kasich — 45-50 (-5)
Bush — 45-50 (-5)
Rubio — 42-53 (-11)
Carson — 40-55 (-15)
Fiorina — 40-56 (-16)
Christie — 40-56 (-16)
Cruz — 36-61 (-25)
Paul* — 29-62 (-33)
Huckabee* — 24-64 (-40)
Santorum — 18-69 (-51)
Gilmore — 9-66 (-57)

I guess the voters just aren't feeling generous today. Also, this is more of a mid Caucus poll, because it does include 2/1/2016.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2016, 12:59:39 PM »

KASICH & Christie & Jeb seems to be splitting vote. Jeb wont win here.
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RI
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« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2016, 12:59:55 PM »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Harper Polling on 2016-02-02

Summary:
Trump:
31%
Bush:
14%
Kasich:
12%
Rubio:
10%
Cruz:
9%
Christie:
6%
Other:
10%
Undecided:
8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2016, 01:00:54 PM »

Holy cow, how is any establishment guy going to consolidate vote with those favorabilities?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2016, 01:07:29 PM »

How on earth do two-thirds have an unfavorable view of Gilmore? Presumably they just saw the name and thought "never heard of him but he's a politician so he's probably bad".
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mds32
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« Reply #10 on: February 03, 2016, 01:13:53 PM »

Favorability amongst likely Republican primary voters:
Candidate — Favorable-Unfavorable (Net)
Trump — 51-47 (+4)
Kasich — 45-50 (-5)
Bush — 45-50 (-5)
Rubio — 42-53 (-11)
Carson — 40-55 (-15)
Fiorina — 40-56 (-16)
Christie — 40-56 (-16)
Cruz — 36-61 (-25)
Paul* — 29-62 (-33)
Huckabee* — 24-64 (-40)
Santorum — 18-69 (-51)
Gilmore — 9-66 (-57)

I guess the voters just aren't feeling generous today. Also, this is more of a mid Caucus poll, because it does include 2/1/2016.

garbage poll
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2016, 01:14:41 PM »

According to Harper there wasn't any significant change in candidates' numbers before and after Iowa.
Then again Selzer said the same thing about Rubio after the last debate.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: February 03, 2016, 01:34:27 PM »

Well I mean, all the non-Trumps have been demolishing one another with negative ads.
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The Free North
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« Reply #13 on: February 03, 2016, 01:37:22 PM »

Favorability amongst likely Republican primary voters:
Candidate — Favorable-Unfavorable (Net)
Trump — 51-47 (+4)
Kasich — 45-50 (-5)
Bush — 45-50 (-5)
Rubio — 42-53 (-11)
Carson — 40-55 (-15)
Fiorina — 40-56 (-16)
Christie — 40-56 (-16)
Cruz — 36-61 (-25)
Paul* — 29-62 (-33)
Huckabee* — 24-64 (-40)
Santorum — 18-69 (-51)
Gilmore — 9-66 (-57)

I guess the voters just aren't feeling generous today. Also, this is more of a mid Caucus poll, because it does include 2/1/2016.

1) People still dont like Rubio
2) People HATE Gilmore
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Holmes
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« Reply #14 on: February 03, 2016, 01:46:39 PM »

I love it.
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Broken System
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« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2016, 01:49:54 PM »

Garbage. Half of the poll is pre-Iowa.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: February 03, 2016, 01:51:25 PM »

Why do we have two different threads for the same poll?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #17 on: February 03, 2016, 02:44:25 PM »

The big problem I notice in this poll is that the regional samples are way off. Only 18% of the poll is from Hillsborough County, even though 30% of the votes in both the 2008 and 2012 came from there. The northern half of the state was very over-polled; 25% of the poll was in either the Burlington or Portland media markets, when only 15% of the actual vote came from there in the last two primaries.

I looked at the crosstabs and did some quick math to properly weigh the results by region, and here's what I got:

Trump 31%
Kasich 13%
Bush 12%
Rubio 10%
Cruz 9%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 5%
Paul 3%
Carson 2%
undecided 7%


and a few interesting notes:
1. Gilmore actually had more supporters than Huckabee (0.42% to 0.38%)
2. While those two only round down to 0, literally nobody in the state voted for Santorum
3. Rand Paul has 0% in the county his dad won
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #18 on: February 03, 2016, 02:46:13 PM »

Kasich in 3rd place?......in the trash!!!!
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Skye
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« Reply #19 on: February 03, 2016, 04:01:34 PM »

I wonder how disastrous the field would look like if Bush tops Rubio and Cruz. Everyone is expecting a 3-way between Donald, Cruz, and Rubio.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: February 03, 2016, 04:06:42 PM »

I bet Jeb paid for this poll.
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cinyc
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« Reply #21 on: February 03, 2016, 04:22:59 PM »

The big problem I notice in this poll is that the regional samples are way off. Only 18% of the poll is from Hillsborough County, even though 30% of the votes in both the 2008 and 2012 came from there. The northern half of the state was very over-polled; 25% of the poll was in either the Burlington or Portland media markets, when only 15% of the actual vote came from there in the last two primaries.

I looked at the crosstabs and did some quick math to properly weigh the results by region, and here's what I got:

Trump 31%
Kasich 13%
Bush 12%
Rubio 10%
Cruz 9%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 5%
Paul 3%
Carson 2%
undecided 7%


and a few interesting notes:
1. Gilmore actually had more supporters than Huckabee (0.42% to 0.38%)
2. While those two only round down to 0, literally nobody in the state voted for Santorum
3. Rand Paul has 0% in the county his dad won

You're assuming Harper didn't already weigh the results by region, which may or may not be true.
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