Bacon King
Atlas Politician
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Posts: 18,833
Political Matrix E: -7.63, S: -9.49
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« on: February 03, 2016, 02:44:25 PM » |
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The big problem I notice in this poll is that the regional samples are way off. Only 18% of the poll is from Hillsborough County, even though 30% of the votes in both the 2008 and 2012 came from there. The northern half of the state was very over-polled; 25% of the poll was in either the Burlington or Portland media markets, when only 15% of the actual vote came from there in the last two primaries.
I looked at the crosstabs and did some quick math to properly weigh the results by region, and here's what I got:
Trump 31% Kasich 13% Bush 12% Rubio 10% Cruz 9% Christie 6% Fiorina 5% Paul 3% Carson 2% undecided 7%
and a few interesting notes: 1. Gilmore actually had more supporters than Huckabee (0.42% to 0.38%) 2. While those two only round down to 0, literally nobody in the state voted for Santorum 3. Rand Paul has 0% in the county his dad won
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