NH-Harper Polling: Trump far ahead (user search)
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  NH-Harper Polling: Trump far ahead (search mode)
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Author Topic: NH-Harper Polling: Trump far ahead  (Read 2571 times)
cinyc
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« on: February 03, 2016, 04:22:59 PM »

The big problem I notice in this poll is that the regional samples are way off. Only 18% of the poll is from Hillsborough County, even though 30% of the votes in both the 2008 and 2012 came from there. The northern half of the state was very over-polled; 25% of the poll was in either the Burlington or Portland media markets, when only 15% of the actual vote came from there in the last two primaries.

I looked at the crosstabs and did some quick math to properly weigh the results by region, and here's what I got:

Trump 31%
Kasich 13%
Bush 12%
Rubio 10%
Cruz 9%
Christie 6%
Fiorina 5%
Paul 3%
Carson 2%
undecided 7%


and a few interesting notes:
1. Gilmore actually had more supporters than Huckabee (0.42% to 0.38%)
2. While those two only round down to 0, literally nobody in the state voted for Santorum
3. Rand Paul has 0% in the county his dad won

You're assuming Harper didn't already weigh the results by region, which may or may not be true.
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