NH-ARG daily tracking poll thread

[Kingpoleon]

I think maybe what happened in Iowa is that pollsters severely overrated Trump's chances. With the exception of Rubio's strong third place, the Cruz-Trump margin looked pretty similar to what the polls were saying before Trump's supposed final week surge, when Cruz was leading.

Atlas:

So, cancel out a week for NH, plus Cruz's "Trump Challenger Effect", which means... Kasich beats Trump by 5!

[Mr. Morden]

Again, I can’t access ARG’s website, but according to RCP, today’s update (Feb. 4-5) is:

link

Trump 34%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 9%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

[Tender Branson]

Again, I can’t access ARG’s website, but according to RCP, today’s update (Feb. 4-5) is:

link

Trump 34%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 9%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

Looks like Fiorina and Carson are heading for landslide-victories.

Anyway, RIP Trump and Kasich ...

[Torie]

Again, I can’t access ARG’s website, but according to RCP, today’s update (Feb. 4-5) is:

link

Trump 34%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 9%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

I love this poll.

This one would be even better:

Trump 26%
Kasich 23%
Rubio 21%
Bush 7%
Christie 6%
Cruz 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

[Lief 🗽]

Again, I can’t access ARG’s website, but according to RCP, today’s update (Feb. 4-5) is:

link

Trump 34%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 9%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

I love this poll.

This one would be even better:

Trump 26%
Kasich 23%
Rubio 21%
Bush 7%
Christie 6%
Cruz 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

Hell, even I'd love that result!

[Torie]

Again, I can’t access ARG’s website, but according to RCP, today’s update (Feb. 4-5) is:

link

Trump 34%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 9%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

I love this poll.

This one would be even better:

Trump 26%
Kasich 23%
Rubio 21%
Bush 7%
Christie 6%
Cruz 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

Hell, even I'd love that result!

You a Kasich fan now, or is your hard on a function of Cruz's anemic number, or would you just be relieved that TRUMP held on to first place?

[Ronnie]

Again, I can’t access ARG’s website, but according to RCP, today’s update (Feb. 4-5) is:

link

Trump 34%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 9%
Bush 8%
Christie 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

I love this poll.

This one would be even better:

Trump 26%
Kasich 23%
Rubio 21%
Bush 7%
Christie 6%
Cruz 5%
Carson 2%
Fiorina 2%

Hell, even I'd love that result!

You a Kasich fan now, or is your hard on a function of Cruz's anemic number, or would you just be relieved that TRUMP held on to first place?

In that scenario, the 3-person race narrative would be called into question, which would be terrible for Rubio, and consequently, good for Trump.

[Lief 🗽]

^^^Exactly.

[Lyin' Steve]

Is ARG paid by Kasich to create a comeback narrative for him?  They consistently show him higher than the other establishment candidates in a way that is not reflected in other polls.

[Torie]

Maybe. I don't see Kasich cutting much into Rubio's numbers in the south and west. In some places, Rubio might be forced to do a deal with Kasich to give him a clear lane in places like say Ohio, least delegates get siphoned off to Trump. Anyway, that is my thinking that makes the cost of avoiding putting all the eggs in the Rubio basket as the moment, to be affordable, which it would not be if it unduly increased the odds of Trump getting the nomination. In the end, I really don't see a path for Cruz to get there, particularly after he gets a good thrashing in New Hampshire.

[Maxwell]

Kasich would absolutely lose in a 1-v-1 race with Trump, so I agree with Lief, that's a terrific result.

[Torie]

Kasich would absolutely lose in a 1-v-1 race with Trump, so I agree with Lief, that's a terrific result.

No, the idea is that Kasich and Rubio have an implicit agreement, and have enough delegates between them to get to a majority. Obviously, Kasich getting a majority on his own, is absolutely ludicrous. Or Rubio over time proves he has the right stuff, and gets there on his own.

[Mr. Morden]

If Rubio doesn't at least finish first in NH among the "establishment" candidates, the post-NH media narrative will be pretty disastrous for him.  As I said in my thread on this, his #1 priority should be driving Bush/Christie/Kasich out of the race as soon as possible.  Heck, Rubio finishing behind Kasich might also encourage Bush to stick it out longer, on the theory that the "establishment lane" is now a muddle, so maybe he still has time for a comeback.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, NH is kind of make or break for both Rubio and Trump, in different ways, to be sure.

[Tender Branson]

In ARG's updates today, Hillary and Rubio are still gaining and Sanders, Trump losing (which probably means in reality that Sanders and Trump are expaning their leads).

[Mr. Morden]

Today’s update (Feb. 5-6):

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23697
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23696

Dems

Sanders 53%
Clinton 42%

GOP

Trump 31%
Kasich 17%
Rubio 17%
Bush 9%
Cruz 9%
Christie 5%
Fiorina 2%
Carson 1%

[Xing]

Keep in mind that this poll doesn't include post-debate numbers yet.

[The Other Castro]

They posted the numbers for February 6-7:

Dems

Sanders 53% (0)
Clinton 41% (-1)

GOP

Trump 30% (-1)
Kasich 16% (-1)
Rubio 16% (-1)
Cruz 10% (+1)
Bush 9% (0)
Christie 6% (+1)
Fiorina 3% (+1)
Carson 1% (0)

[Mike Thick]

Very interesting. It seems Rubio isn't imploding as much as Atlas expected...

[The Other Castro]

Very interesting. It seems Rubio isn't imploding as much as Atlas expected...

Well, it has only been one day and this is half pre-debate.

[YPestis25]

Very interesting. It seems Rubio isn't imploding as much as Atlas expected...

Well, it has only been one day and this is half pre-debate.

Plus it's ARG, which is pretty awful in general. Hopefully we get some reliable polls tomorrow to see if he's tanking.

[Maxwell]

Daily tracking polls are horrendous, ARG is horrendous, ARG daily tracking polls are horrendous squared.

[Mehmentum]

No thank you.  I'll take the Kasich internals over this.  At least with the internals I know in which direction they'll be off.

[Mike Thick]

Very interesting. It seems Rubio isn't imploding as much as Atlas expected...

Well, it has only been one day and this is half pre-debate.

Plus it's ARG, which is pretty awful in general. Hopefully we get some reliable polls tomorrow to see if he's tanking.

Ah. There's that Kasich internal showing him at 10%, which I am inclined to trust a bit more (although it is an internal).

[Maxwell]

I will point out that internals showed Marco's rise in Iowa while regular pollsters did not.