Who are Trump voters?

[The Free North]

Much has been made about who Donald's target demographic is. Rubio is now the Establishment/suburban guy, Cruz will win the grassroots, evangelical vote. Who's voting for Trump then? The other 2 candidates take occupy the main cleavages in the Republican Party, is there a third lane? Who are the Trump voters? How can we classify them?

Hint: They're poor.


A comparison's sake in Iowa






Now, it should be noted that Cruz's scatter demonstrates similar behavior to Trump's but given the correlation between lower income and evangelical, rural counties, I dont think it's fair to attribute his success solely based on socioeconomic status. Or am I wrong? Can we define Trump supporters in a similar light to Cruz?

[RI]

I can't imagine the R-squared on that Trump graph is very high.

[Torie]

Cruz's vote goes down as income rises like Trump's? That surprises me if true. I would think it would be relatively flat. Anyway, Trump's voters tend to be lower income, less education, and less religious, and probably more socially anomic.

[The Free North]

I can't imagine the R-squared on that Trump graph is very high.

None of them are. There is certainly a lot of noise.

Which is why this started as an open ended question. While Trump voters are certainly not as well to do, there doesn't appear to be as strong a relationship as we might originally think.
Here is Cruz BTW, it's actually far more pronounced than I thought, very interesting.





 

[RI]

I ran some quick regressions on Trump's percentage by county. Income (and poverty rate) weren't significant. Here's the Stata results:

[komodozer]

People who loathe Obama, and believe he's foreign born.

[The Free North]

I ran some quick regressions on Trump's percentage by county. Income (and poverty rate) weren't significant. Here's the Stata results:

Awesome stuff, where did you get the data for this?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't know. The Trump voters I know here are olds with money. Some of the others support Bush. Rubio seems to have the younger voters around my age if they aren't for Sanders, and I don't know anyone supporting Cruz.

[RI]

Awesome stuff, where did you get the data for this?

Census, mostly. I'm going to add a few more variables and see if anything pops.

EDIT: I checked age and religion and neither came back significant.

[Torie]

Using income by county in a state like Iowa is probably not too good an idea. Incomes vary within counties. One might just look at rural counties, where there is a substantial difference in income, and see what is happening, or Dallas county which has more uniform wealth, compared to elsewhere. More helpful would be to look at cities and townships. Bettendorf is high income, as are some of the cities around Des Moines.

[RI]

Based on my regressions, counties that gave more support for Trump tended to have fewer people with college degrees; more people employed in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation (i.e. truckers), finance, healthcare, and accommodations (hotel workers); more veterans; less land overall devoted to agriculture, though the land that is for farms is more to pastures; lower average elevation, but higher maximum elevation.

Also, it seems the Asians and the Natives are fans of Trump, but not the Blacks or the Hispanics.

[Uhh_murican]

Also, it seems the Asians and the Natives are fans of Trump, but not the Blacks or the Hispanics.

That's nonsense. The blacks love him.

[Rockefeller GOP]

People who weren't Republicans 10 years ago.

[Vosem]

lower average elevation, but higher maximum elevation.

This explains everything.