CNN/WMUR NH polls coming at 5 and 6 PM ET.
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  CNN/WMUR NH polls coming at 5 and 6 PM ET.		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: CNN/WMUR NH polls coming at 5 and 6 PM ET.  (Read 369 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: February 04, 2016, 02:32:22 PM »
Breaking.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2016, 02:36:29 PM »
Prediction: Sanders leads 60-32
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2016, 03:17:46 PM »
CNN had the absolute worst Iowa poll of them all (Sanders +8, Trump +11)
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2016, 03:24:51 PM »
Now if we could only get some damn Nevada polls...
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2016, 03:27:17 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on February 04, 2016, 03:17:46 PM
CNN had the absolute worst Iowa poll of them all (Sanders +8, Trump +11)

I think the CNN/WMUR poll uses a different pollster (University of New Hampshire) than CNN's regular polls (ORC).  We need to keep that in mind when figuring out the trends, as ORC has polled New Hampshire for CNN from time to time, too.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2016, 03:28:50 PM »
In general, I only trust the poll averages anymore. So, throw it in the mix.

IA was probably especially bad for pollsters, because turnout was epically low (~16% of the VEP).

NH should be more accurate because turnout should be ~45 to 50% of the VEP.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_2zR7LlDVUpVs1WM5S_bzeuooOvlVPvJVsEj4MXCOa4/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=0
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2016, 03:33:08 PM »
Do you think the polls will show a smaller Trump lead after his Iowa defeat?  Or maybe a bit of a Cruz/Rubio surge?
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