NH-CNN/WMUR Poll: Trump leading, Rubio in 2nd

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

IMPORTANT ISSUE WITH THIS POLL

only 38% of responders say they have a college degree.

In 2012, 56% of NH primary voters had a degree.

That's even more bad news for Trump.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IMPORTANT ISSUE WITH THIS POLL

only 38% of responders say they have a college degree.

In 2012, 56% of NH primary voters had a degree.

Trump attracts uneducated voters

[Mr. Morden]

I feel like we're going to be flying blind on the GOP side going into Tuesday, since there are only a couple more days to poll, there's a debate on Saturday which could shake things up further, Sunday is pretty much impossible to poll since it's the Super Bowl, and most of the good pollsters don't seem to be bothering with NH polls at the moment.

[Ronnie]

If this election cycle will have shown us anything, it's the shockingly disproportionate extent to which Iowa influences the electoral process.  RIP Trump.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Based on MoE:

it could be from 36% Trump  - 11% Rubio to 24% Rubio - 22% Trump. Nerve-racking

Unless I'm an idiot, I'm not a stats person so I may be completely wrong lol.

[cinyc]

Based on MoE:

it could be from 36% Trump  - 11% Rubio to 24% Rubio - 22% Trump. Nerve-racking

Unless I'm an idiot, I'm not a stats person so I may be completely wrong lol.

Margins of error shrink as a candidate's support moves away from 50%.  I don't remember how to calculate specific error bands, but Muon or someone else has done so in other posts.

Edited to add: If I've done the math right and Wikipedia has the correct formula (i.e. the margin of error at a 95% confidence interval is equal to 1.96 times the square root of (p*(1-p)/n), where p is the candidate's percentage and n is the sample size), the possible results end up as follows:

Candidate	Low	High
Trump	22.8%	35.2%
Rubio	12.8%	23.2%
Cruz	8.4%	17.6%
Kasich	7.6%	16.4%
Bush	5.9%	14.1%
Christie	1.3%	6.7%
Fiorina	1.3%	6.7%
Carson	0.1%	3.9%

So there's a very low probability that Rubio is ahead of Trump given this poll, but it's probably not more than 10%.  Someone better at math can calculate it.  And there's a 5% chance that the results could exceed the highs and lows, anyway (2.5% on each side, except for Carson, since you can't get negative votes).  We're also assuming that the candidate received exactly his percentage instead of something like 28.4% rounded down to 28%.  The bands would slightly move if we lol decimaled the poll.

[EliteLX]

IMPORTANT ISSUE WITH THIS POLL

only 38% of responders say they have a college degree.

In 2012, 56% of NH primary voters had a degree.

.. And this does nothing but help Rubio even more.

One of Donald's worst enemy is a college educated Republican.

[Shadows]

There's still about 10 percent of the vote to grab as well. If NH turns out to be anything like Iowa for Rubio, it's bad news for just about everyone in the field.

Rubio's going to get absolutely destroyed at the debate this weekend.

He would not. Carson has vowed to go after Cruz. Trump has said he will file a suit or something & calls it illegal & is continually going after Cruz. Both of them will go after Cruz. Maybe Jeb Bush & Christie will take a shot.

But Cruz standing in the middle after Iowa will get some slack too, as will Rubio & Trump to a much lesser extent will be mocked for loosing

[RodPresident]

With Democratic primary likely-to-safe to Sanders, then Independents will have a strong say in Republican primary. And this can help Trump.
Establishment trio (Kasich, Jeb and Christie) should go all-out on Rubio saying that he's unexperienced to be the nominee.

[mds32]

IMPORTANT ISSUE WITH THIS POLL

only 38% of responders say they have a college degree.

In 2012, 56% of NH primary voters had a degree.

Sounds like Rubio would have more to gain from an increase.

[Landslide Lyndon]

With Democratic primary likely-to-safe to Sanders, then Independents will have a strong say in Republican primary. And this can help Trump.
Establishment trio (Kasich, Jeb and Christie) should go all-out on Rubio saying that he's unexperienced to be the nominee.

This. A big reason why Obama lost in 2008 is because independents thought he had it in the bag and preferred to vote in the Republican primary for their other darling, John McCain.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

You have to wonder about the debate. I assume Rubio will be getting hit from all sides, and since he really has no record to run on, it might get ugly.

[Mr. Morden]

Which of the candidates would you *not* vote for under any circumstances?

Trump 37%
Cruz 13%
Bush 7%
Rubio 5%
Carson 3%
Christie 3%
Gilmore 3%
Fiorina 2%
Kasich 1%

[ProgressiveCanadian]

IMPORTANT ISSUE WITH THIS POLL

only 38% of responders say they have a college degree.

In 2012, 56% of NH primary voters had a degree.

In 2012 Obama was the incumbent...your argument makes no sense.

[Pandaguineapig]

IMPORTANT ISSUE WITH THIS POLL

only 38% of responders say they have a college degree.

In 2012, 56% of NH primary voters had a degree.

In 2012 Obama was the incumbent...your argument makes no sense.

Republican primary

[Xing]

I'm guessing that if Rubio does get second place, the narrative will be that he "won" NH, just like he "won" IA. Must be nice to be a winner without actually getting first.

[The Other Castro]

I'm guessing that if Rubio does get second place, the narrative will be that he "won" NH, just like he "won" IA. Must be nice to be a winner without actually getting first.

Well, in the early primary season, winning is mainly about the expectations game. Rubio easily won the Iowa expectations game by coming 1% away from beating the supposed frontrunner. If Rubio comes within 5 points of Trump in New Hampshire, he will have won the expectations game again, as well as the top establishment game. That's big going into South Carolina.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, the polls in NH were very varying from time to time. The Trumpster was always between the mid/high twenties to the high thirties. Right now, I don’t see him losing even if he underperforms the polls. The worst scenario I see for him is a 25-22% win.