Are young voters in play?

[SillyAmerican]

I just read that on Monday, 84% of those under the age of 30 caucused for Sanders. Will younger voters continue to break for Sanders, or will Clinton find a way to attract the younger crowd to her?

[Torie]

In general, I think not, but then in a regular primary, rather than a caucus, and with persons of color, Hillary will get a larger share than in Iowa, maybe say a quarter or a third of them perhaps.

[DS0816]

Going by those Iowa Democratic caucus polls (from CNN)…

@ http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ia/Dem

Immediately noticeable: The younger voters are not in agreement with the older voters for who should win the Democratic presidential nomination for 2016. Take a look at the income levels. A big gap there as well. (The people with more money are there for Hillary Clinton.) It's also interesting to note that, in a general election, those two voting-age groups combined outpace what is normally the turnout for the two youngest voting-age groups. And it's also the case with those low-income versus higher-income voters.

My own theory is this: The older two groups for Hillary Clinton have more the background for experiencing the 1990s with a President Bill Clinton. Using 2015 as the cut-off, those age 45 were born, at the latest, in1970. The 1988 and 1992 elections were their first as adults. But those age 65 or older were born, at the latest, 1950—and they appreciated the Clinton White House years. But, those who were born in 1998 (that CNN poll listed the youngest group starting at age 17) are not sharing that sentiment. And they don't share the same issues. (Starting with their incomes.) They don't have a shared perspective but there experiences are not comparable. The oldest group was there for Republican realigning election of 1968 and, twelve years later, for Ronald Reagan in 1980. We're a good 35 years past Reagan's first election. And what those 65 and older people—well-established, better earnings, some still working and some retired—are not having the same issues as those who 18-plus in 2016. The "Millenials" are liberal. (The 65 and older voting-age group are not.) The youngest voting-age group (and including much of the party base including Generation X who, perhaps, were born at some point around the mid-1970s), are wanting a Democratic Party which is aggressively liberal on all policies represented in leadership not just on the campaign trail but when serving in office (very much including the presidency). And the Democratic Party—with examining this—has to realize they have a leadership concern with regard for the direction of the party before discussing more deeply direction for the United States. The party cannot run like it is 1996 rather than 2016. That is not where the nation is. If Bernie Sanders wins this 2016 Democratic presidential nomination over Hillary Clinton, a big part of what will explain is that he performed stronger with connecting and showing he is in touch. Hillary Clinton has time to rebound. But, she will need to adjust and become more aggressively liberal.

[MasterJedi]

Sanders wins them, if he doesn't win a lot of them are not the brightest so they'll likely stay home instead of voting for Clinton though Rubio may pick up a few.

[Figueira]

Clinton can probably cut into his lead a little, but Sanders is definitely winning more young voters than her.

[Asian Nazi]

Sanders will continue to win younger (under 30 y.o.) voters.  Maybe not quite by the margin he did in Iowa, but he will definitely continue to carry them.  I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to carry millennials by over 30 points until the day he drops out, though enthusiasm and turnout will taper off if it looks like he has no chance of winning.  But thanks to the proportional system that the Democratic Party uses, he will continue to look competitive for quite some time, even if he doesn't have a real chance.

[Frodo]

I think Hillary should cede the 18-29 (particularly white) youth vote to Sanders, and focus on older (and more reliable) constituencies.  There is no way she will ever appeal to them, at least during the primaries.    

[Figueira]

I think Hillary should cede the 18-29 (particularly white) youth vote to Sanders, and focus on older (and more reliable) constituencies.  There is no way she will ever appeal to them, at least during the primaries.    

She has to appeal to them in the general, but yeah.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In the General, no.

[NerdyBohemian]

One of the reasons I hate Bernie-bots so much is that they keep making these memes to discredit Hillary and drive youth enthusiasm down. They are literally doing the Republicans' job for them.

[Comrade Funk]

One of the reasons I hate Bernie-bots so much is that they keep making these memes to discredit Hillary and drive youth enthusiasm down. They are literally doing the Republicans' job for them.

She does that herself with her lame appeals through emojis and Ellen.

[Virginiá]

Young voters are probably not in play in either the primary or general election. Clinton isn't going to snatch them away from Sanders, and none of the current Republicans have any real shot at getting any of them, either. Republicans can't expect young voters to drift their way by taking up positions even further away from where the young ones stand.

[Shadows]

One of the reasons I hate Bernie-bots so much is that they keep making these memes to discredit Hillary and drive youth enthusiasm down. They are literally doing the Republicans' job for them.

You still don't get it do you? You can't win it by being dishonest & lying every single time? And neither can you be being a robot. When a Hillary seems like an honest real person to whom young voters can connect to, they will go after him.

Clinton's supporters have to address her fundamental flaws rather than blaming X or Y

[Asian Nazi]

One of the reasons I hate Bernie-bots so much is that they keep making these memes to discredit Hillary and drive youth enthusiasm down. They are literally doing the Republicans' job for them.

If Clinton is a weak enough candidate to lose because of internet memes, she never had a chance in the first place.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Not until the general.  I maintain that Rubio would win the 18-24 vote against Hillary and come quite close in the young vote overall.

[whanztastic]

Not until the general.  I maintain that Rubio would win the 18-24 vote against Hillary and come quite close in the young vote overall.

The anti-gay marriage, pro-keep a rapist's fetus candidate would beat the Dems in the youth vote?  

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Not until the general.  I maintain that Rubio would win the 18-24 vote against Hillary and come quite close in the young vote overall.

The anti-gay marriage, pro-keep a rapist's fetus candidate would beat the Dems in the youth vote?  

Young voters are actually more pro-life than their parents

[Thomas D]

Not until the general.  I maintain that Rubio would win the 18-24 vote against Hillary and come quite close in the young vote overall.

The anti-gay marriage, pro-keep a rapist's fetus candidate would beat the Dems in the youth vote?  

Young voters are actually more pro-life than their parents

But they still support exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.

[Higgs]

Not until the general.  I maintain that Rubio would win the 18-24 vote against Hillary and come quite close in the young vote overall.

The anti-gay marriage, pro-keep a rapist's fetus candidate would beat the Dems in the youth vote?  

Young voters are actually more pro-life than their parents

But they still support exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.

Well most people don't vote on the basis of one issue and especially one as specific as that

[TJ in Oregon]

Some are, some aren't, like pretty much every other group.

[Adam Griffin]

Obama won well over 60% of the primary vote against Clinton in 2008.

Thus far, Sanders has out-performed Obama with 18-29 year-olds (84% in IA for Sanders among this group, versus 81% for Obama). I highly doubt this will continue to be the case as we move into more diverse states, but it's also worth noting that despite the fact that millennials are the most diverse generation racially-speaking, the racial gap in the 18-29 group between the Democratic candidates seems to be a lot smaller than it is overall (just like with the gender gap); it's mostly being fueled by older voters, who are a disproportionate chunk of the primary vote. It's also worth noting that the 18-29 bloc of registered voters who vote in primaries is quite a bit whiter than the 18-29 population group - it wouldn't surprise me if it mirrors the national population (63% white or so).

18-29 whites are likely going to be a bit more for Sanders than Obama; 18-29 non-whites will be less so. Even though non-whites will at most make up 40% of this group, their swing away from Sanders will probably be more in net terms than whites' swing toward Sanders. In the end, Sanders does a bit worse than Obama in the primary, but I don't think Sanders falls below 60% with the 18-29 demographic.

[Xing]

Not in either case. They'll continue to support Sanders, and then support whoever the Democratic candidate is in the general election. Unless Republicans moderate a lot on social issues, they're going to keep getting crushed among young voters.