Quinnipiac national: D: Clinton 44% Sanders 42%; R: Trump 31% Cruz 22% Rubio 19%

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac national poll, conducted Feb. 2-4:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2321

Dems

Clinton 44%
Sanders 42%

GOP

Trump 31%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 19%
Carson 6%
Bush 3%
Christie 3%
Kasich 3%
Fiorina 2%
Gilmore 0%

[A Perez]

Quinnipiac picked the wrong winner in Iowa for both parties.

[Phony Moderate]

Quinnipiac picked the wrong winner in Iowa for both parties.

And yet most on here took PPP's most recent national poll seriously.

[Mr. Morden]

On the GOP side, who leads among…?

men: Trump
women: Cruz
college graduate: Rubio
non-college graduate: Trump

Are there any candidates you would definitely *not* support? (multiple responses allowed)

Trump 30%
Bush 24%
Cruz 15%
Fiorina 13%
Christie 12%
Kasich 11%
Gilmore 10%
Carson 8%
Rubio 7%

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Sanders 72/10% for +62%
Clinton 75/22% for +53%

Rubio 69/8% for +61%
Cruz 68/19% for +49%
Trump 60/34% for +26%

[Zanas]

This is clearly an outlier on the Dem side. GOP looks fine. The most Hillary-ous part of this is that in their last poll in late December, Quinnipiac actually had :
Clinton 61 (-17)
Sanders 30 (+12)

Quinnipiac was consistently one of the most pro-Clinton pollster in late 2015 in the national race, but I'm pretty sure we can't use this to say "OMG this means that Sanders is actually way ahead !!!11!1!"

Still, only one recent national poll showed Clinton ahead by +20 (PPP...), and this particular poll, although an outlier, points to a narrowing of the gap.

The national gap should be around +10 or +12 for Clinton right now.

[Higgs]

On the GOP side, who leads among…?

men: Trump
women: Cruz
college graduate: Rubio
non-college graduate: Trump

Are there any candidates you would definitely *not* support? (multiple responses allowed)

Trump 30%
Bush 24%
Cruz 15%
Fiorina 13%
Christie 12%
Kasich 11%
Gilmore 10%
Carson 8%
Rubio 7%

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Sanders 72/10% for +62%
Clinton 75/22% for +53%

Rubio 69/8% for +61%
Cruz 68/19% for +49%
Trump 60/34% for +26%

New Hampshire is perfect for Rubio. If Trump can't even win here with 3 (4 if you count Fiorina) other establishment candidates then he's done.

[Mr. Morden]

On the GOP side, who leads among…?

men: Trump
women: Cruz
college graduate: Rubio
non-college graduate: Trump

Are there any candidates you would definitely *not* support? (multiple responses allowed)

Trump 30%
Bush 24%
Cruz 15%
Fiorina 13%
Christie 12%
Kasich 11%
Gilmore 10%
Carson 8%
Rubio 7%

fav/unfav % among their own party:

Sanders 72/10% for +62%
Clinton 75/22% for +53%

Rubio 69/8% for +61%
Cruz 68/19% for +49%
Trump 60/34% for +26%

New Hampshire is perfect for Rubio. If Trump can't even win here with 3 (4 if you count Fiorina) other establishment candidates then he's done.

This is a national poll.  What does New Hampshire have to do with it?

[Tender Branson]

There's clearly some consolidation/polarization going on on the Dem side.

People saw that Sanders can keep up with Clinton in IA and therefore voters around the US make it a close race now.

[Shadows]

I support Sanders but I want to see 2-3 more polls over the next 6-8 days pointing to a range of 4-5% or less before I fully believe this. We have had wild polls from 20% to 7%. I believe some of the more anti-Sanders polls have him 13-14% still down.

2% is margin of error meaning they are tied in a way & with so many undecided voters Sanders could actually be leading. I think Hillary is still leading

After NH & debate of Feb 11th, as we get close to Nevada, we can understand if the race is really neck & neck.

[Gass3268]

Seriously Quinnipiac? No racial data on the Democratic side?

[Shadows]

Seriously Quinnipiac? No racial data on the Democratic side?

13% Blacks in the total sample, go check the bottom. Too low IMO, should be 20-25% atleast. Hispanics form a big big Chunk, 9% - I suspect Sanders may be doing well with them.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The good people of the Democratic Party are once again seeing right through the Hillary facade!  

"I'm a progressive that gets things done!"

Yea, like breaking ground with your Goldmann buddies with a big fat smile on your face!



Don't worry workers of America!  Hillary's with you!

Great poll!

[A Perez]

Forecaster says he needs more confirmation given that Quinnipiac appears to be an outlier https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/695593045186760704

[Gass3268]

Forecaster says he needs more confirmation given that Quinnipiac appears to be an outlier https://mobile.twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/695593045186760704

Agreed

[Fusionmunster]

Racial make up sucks in this poll. Also the director of the polls has a real bug up his ass about Clinton.

[Gass3268]

Racial make up sucks in this poll. Also the director of the polls has a real bug up his ass about Clinton.

I'm still not seeing this. Could you point me to where this is?

[Tender Branson]

Racial make up sucks in this poll. Also the director of the polls has a real bug up his ass about Clinton.

The racial makeup is for the general election poll and not the primary poll.

[yankeesfan]

Trump has a woman problem:

39% Men
23% Woman
31% Total

Clinton would destroy him.  She may get 60+% of woman against Trump.

[Phony Moderate]

Trump has a woman problem:

39% Men
23% Woman
31% Total

Clinton would destroy him.  She may get 60+% of woman against Trump.

Far bigger than the entrance polls in Iowa showed.

[bigedlb]

Trump has a woman problem:

39% Men
23% Woman
31% Total

Clinton would destroy him.  She may get 60+% of woman against Trump.

Q polls always exaggerate the gender gap with Trump

[Mehmentum]

So we've got PPP at Clinton +21 and Quinnipiac at Clinton +2.  Both were off in Iowa, but in opposite directions.  I wouldn't be surprised if the real result was somewhere in between, like around +12.  In other words, pretty much where the rcp average was before Iowa.

[The Other Castro]

The talking heads are going to wet themselves after the first national poll that shows Sanders leading, following a win in NH.

[Eraserhead]

So we've got PPP at Clinton +21 and Quinnipiac at Clinton +2.  Both were off in Iowa, but in opposite directions.  I wouldn't be surprised if the real result was somewhere in between, like around +12.  In other words, pretty much where the rcp average was before Iowa.

Not saying that I buy this poll but Quinnipiac did a lot better in Iowa than PPP did.

[A Perez]

The talking heads are going to wet themselves after the first national poll that shows Sanders leading, following a win in NH.

The Washington Post just warned readers to "be skeptical" of this Quinnipiac national poll  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/05/the-first-national-poll-since-iowa-shows-the-closest-democratic-margin-yet/

[Lyin' Steve]

The good people of the Democratic Party are once again seeing right through the Hillary facade! 

"I'm a progressive that gets things done!"

Yea, like breaking ground with your Goldmann buddies with a big fat smile on your face!



Don't worry workers of America!  Hillary's with you!

Great poll!

Is this a real thing that people are doing?  That's clearly Chuck Schumer, George Pataki and Mike Bloomberg in that picture.

I looked it up, they were breaking ground on the Goldman Sachs HQ part of the new World Trade Center in 2005.