Moderate Pub voter strategy in NH

[Torie]

OK, you don't want to put all you eggs in the Rubio basket just yet, but job one is stopping Cruz and Trump. So you want to vote for Kasich given the egg issue, but if you do that, it might run the risk of Cruz getting ahead of Rubio, which is not good. So if the polls by election day, show Rubio and Cruz neck and neck, with Kasich just behind, what does one do?  If all three were neck and neck, I think I would still vote for Kasich, because then the risk is not increased that Cruz would get second place, and then whether Cruz or Rubio is in third place becomes less important than keeping Cruz from getting the silver medal.

Have I thought this through right? Granted I am not a NH voter, but this would be my thinking process, and if I am thinking it, perhaps some voters of my ilk might be thinking it through this way as well. So thus the question. It arises because of the apparent spike up in Cruz's poll numbers in NH. Absent that, it is an easy vote for me for Kasich I think.

Any thoughts?

[Reaganfan]

Other than Jeb Bush, who really has a shot after New Hampshire? Kasich? Christie? I don't see those two having any shot. Jeb's only shot would be a shocking New Hampshire win propelling him to victory in South Carolina, Nevada, then Super Tuesday.

Barring that, this race is between Trump,  Cruz, and Rubio.

I also hear whispers of fear coming from Democrats that Rubio is the Republican they least want to run against.

[Torie]

Other than Jeb Bush, who really has a shot after New Hampshire? Kasich? Christie? I don't see those two having any shot. Jeb's only shot would be a shocking New Hampshire win propelling him to victory in South Carolina, Nevada, then Super Tuesday.

Barring that, this race is between Trump,  Cruz, and Rubio.

I also hear whispers of fear coming from Democrats that Rubio is the Republican they least want to run against.

The idea is that if Rubio has problems down the road a bit, for whatever reason, the Pubs have creditable standby equipment, without running the risk of unleashing Cruz. It's the insurance policy approach, but the issue is just how expensive is the premium therefor?

[Ljube]

The only reasonable idea for a moderate Pub in NH is to vote for Rubio and ensure his swift coronation.

[Maxwell]

If you're a moderate Pub then you really have no options in 2016.

[Ljube]

If you're a moderate Pub then you really have no options in 2016.

When saying "moderate", Torie really means "Establishment".

[Gass3268]

Governor Baker endorsing Christie 5 days out doesn't help the consolidation around Rubio. Especially if Baker campaigns with Christie in the state.

[Maxwell]

If you're a moderate Pub then you really have no options in 2016.

When saying "moderate", Torie really means "Establishment".

I'm aware of that. I still need to correct.

[All Along The Watchtower]

If you're a moderate Pub then you really have no options in 2016.

When saying "moderate", Torie really means "Establishment".

Yes, there's the unspoken assumption that "moderate" means having a lot of wealth, (formal) education, and bourgeois manners - in short, the "respectable" Republican archetype.

Nevermind that such Republicans can (and do) have extremely right-wing views - especially on issues in which they have a vested interest in preserving the status quo (taxation, regulation, social spending, economic inequality, unions,and so on...).

[Torie]

"Nevermind that such Republicans can (and do) have extremely right-wing views - especially on issues in which they have a vested interest in preserving the status quo (taxation, regulation, social spending, economic inequality, unions,and so on...)."

If the above is meant to characterize my views, it is not accurate, except for the unions bit if we are talking about public sector unions.

Anyway, not much help here in the thread for me or my ilk if NH voters. But it appears that the issue may be moot, since the Suffolk poll that just came out shows Cruz crashing down to 7%. So now it is much easier to vote for Kasich, which is what I would do if a NH voter, assuming other polls show Cruz out of the hunt for second place.

[cinyc]

"Nevermind that such Republicans can (and do) have extremely right-wing views - especially on issues in which they have a vested interest in preserving the status quo (taxation, regulation, social spending, economic inequality, unions,and so on...)."

If the above is meant to characterize my views, it is not accurate, except for the unions bit if we are talking about public sector unions.

Anyway, not much help here in the thread for me or my ilk if NH voters. But it appears that the issue may be moot, since the Suffolk poll that just came out shows Cruz crashing down to 7%. So now it is much easier to vote for Kasich, which is what I would do if a NH voter, assuming other polls show Cruz out of the hunt for second place.

Most voters vote for someone to win, not to place or show.  Thus, I think if Rubio is within single digits of Trump in the polls come Tuesday, voters backing supposedly moderate candidates will flock to Rubio to try to put him over the top.

The Cruz poll at 7% is an outlier as of right now.  He still has a chance to come in second if the establishment backers split their votes four or five ways.  So even if you care about Rubio coming in second, moderates should still vote for him to get over Cruz.  Cruz has a good floor with very conservative Republican primary voters and, to a lesser extent, evangelicals who really have no other place to go.

[Broken System]

I think we have to take into consideration that people IRL don't hate Rubio nearly as much as many people on this forum do. Just like Iowa, we will see the Rubio surge on election day.