Washington Legislative Districts

[publicunofficial]

Joining Jefferson and Island Counties is a no-no.

[Alcon]

Joining Jefferson and Island Counties is a no-no.

Eh, there's a regular ferry between Port Townsend and Coupeville/Keystone.

I'd say it fits much better with Skagit, since Camano Island connects to Stanwood and Whidbey Island to Anacortes, but Jefferson isn't indefensible.

[muon2]

I found a plan of LD regions that as many as my previous plan and keeps the Seattle UCC as a single region. The Olympia region is 11,191 under the quota for three LDs, but this is less than 5% per district. It's just within the limit of 5%*sqrt(N) for N districts as suggested once by jimrtex as a guide for maximum regional deviation.



I used this to rework the LDs in western WA, then draw HDs from those LDs. Starting from this regional plan meets all UCC packs and covers, and reduces the number of county chops at the increase of subunit chops. Some may also appreciate that I as able to attach Island to Skagit. Here's the greater Seattle-Tacoma area. As before, similar colors (light and dark) represent the pairs of HD in an LD.



At the LD level the plan is 21D-6d-7e-2r-13R, which shifts one seat from even to lean d for a SKEW of 2D. At the HD the plan is 39D-19d-8e-11r-21R, which shifts 2 even HDs to lean d and 2 even HDs to lean r, thus keeping the SKEW at 6D.

Effectively there is little partisan difference in SKEW by keeping the Seattle UCC intact and a modest increase in POLARIZATION due to the loss of even seats. That increased POLARIZATION suggests that there would be less swing in seats between elections such as 2012 to 2014. Nonetheless the main conclusion remains that dividing LDs into HDs helps Dems due to the remote urban centers in eastern WA, and changes little in the dense urban regions of western WA.

[jimrtex]

I found a plan of LD regions that as many as my previous plan and keeps the Seattle UCC as a single region. The Olympia region is 11,191 under the quota for three LDs, but this is less than 5% per district. It's just within the limit of 5%*sqrt(N) for N districts as suggested once by jimrtex as a guide for maximum regional deviation.



I used this to rework the LDs in western WA, then draw HDs from those LDs. Starting from this regional plan meets all UCC packs and covers, and reduces the number of county chops at the increase of subunit chops. Some may also appreciate that I as able to attach Island to Skagit. Here's the greater Seattle-Tacoma area. As before, similar colors (light and dark) represent the pairs of HD in an LD.



At the LD level the plan is 21D-6d-7e-2r-13R, which shifts one seat from even to lean d for a SKEW of 2D. At the HD the plan is 39D-19d-8e-11r-21R, which shifts 2 even HDs to lean d and 2 even HDs to lean r, thus keeping the SKEW at 6D.

Effectively there is little partisan difference in SKEW by keeping the Seattle UCC intact and a modest increase in POLARIZATION due to the loss of even seats. That increased POLARIZATION suggests that there would be less swing in seats between elections such as 2012 to 2014. Nonetheless the main conclusion remains that dividing LDs into HDs helps Dems due to the remote urban centers in eastern WA, and changes little in the dense urban regions of western WA.

Would it be feasible to go from Grays Harbor to Lewis, avoiding the double chop of Thurston?

Also, why not put all of Jefferson in the same house district?

Are the only districts that cross the Pierce-King and Snohomish-King line the eastern districts (light brown and aqua)?

[muon2]

I found a plan of LD regions that as many as my previous plan and keeps the Seattle UCC as a single region. The Olympia region is 11,191 under the quota for three LDs, but this is less than 5% per district. It's just within the limit of 5%*sqrt(N) for N districts as suggested once by jimrtex as a guide for maximum regional deviation.



I used this to rework the LDs in western WA, then draw HDs from those LDs. Starting from this regional plan meets all UCC packs and covers, and reduces the number of county chops at the increase of subunit chops. Some may also appreciate that I as able to attach Island to Skagit. Here's the greater Seattle-Tacoma area. As before, similar colors (light and dark) represent the pairs of HD in an LD.



At the LD level the plan is 21D-6d-7e-2r-13R, which shifts one seat from even to lean d for a SKEW of 2D. At the HD the plan is 39D-19d-8e-11r-21R, which shifts 2 even HDs to lean d and 2 even HDs to lean r, thus keeping the SKEW at 6D.

Effectively there is little partisan difference in SKEW by keeping the Seattle UCC intact and a modest increase in POLARIZATION due to the loss of even seats. That increased POLARIZATION suggests that there would be less swing in seats between elections such as 2012 to 2014. Nonetheless the main conclusion remains that dividing LDs into HDs helps Dems due to the remote urban centers in eastern WA, and changes little in the dense urban regions of western WA.

Would it be feasible to go from Grays Harbor to Lewis, avoiding the double chop of Thurston?

Also, why not put all of Jefferson in the same house district?

Are the only districts that cross the Pierce-King and Snohomish-King line the eastern districts (light brown and aqua)?

Good questions.

There's no connection from Grays Harbor to Lewis so the double chop of Thurston was unavoidable. As I noted, I had missed that three county combination originally since I saw the two county Grays Harbor Mason combination for one LD. When pushed to keep the Seattle UCC intact it appeared as an option.

I should put Jefferson all in one HD. I was used to keeping all parts connected, but we are now working under the rule that all parts are connected if whole. I'll change it in my master version, but probably not update the maps here unless there are enough changes that it might affect the SKEW computations, since that is the purpose of the exercise.

Yes I used the minimum number of county crossings from King to its two UCC neighbors. There are subunit chops in those HDs.

[Kevinstat]

The slightly darker shadings for area in a national park/forest and such can make it look like you the area inside vs. outside a national forest are in different HDs in the same LD.  That may have prompted Jimrtex's question about the number of HDs crossing the Pierce-King and Snohomish-King lines.  (Although Jimrtex is probably familiar with how such things show up on Dave's Redistricting App.)

[publicunofficial]

Joining Jefferson and Island Counties is a no-no.

Eh, there's a regular ferry between Port Townsend and Coupeville/Keystone.

I'd say it fits much better with Skagit, since Camano Island connects to Stanwood and Whidbey Island to Anacortes, but Jefferson isn't indefensible.

I'm from Clallam county, so consider me the forum's Olympic Peninsula expert. The Coupeville ferry exists, but it's very small, not always active (Lot of choppy weather in that stretch), and rarely used. Plus I consider the number 1 rule of Washington map making to be "Don't cross the Sound"

As for chopping Jefferson county, it's worth noting that the western 3/4 of Jefferson are mostly national park land and some sparsely populated areas. Those areas have more in common with rural Clallam or Grays Harbor county than the Port Townsend half of Jefferson.

[publicunofficial]

Here's my take on the North Sound. It's not perfect by any stretch, but it's how I would do it.

[muon2]

Joining Jefferson and Island Counties is a no-no.

Eh, there's a regular ferry between Port Townsend and Coupeville/Keystone.

I'd say it fits much better with Skagit, since Camano Island connects to Stanwood and Whidbey Island to Anacortes, but Jefferson isn't indefensible.

I'm from Clallam county, so consider me the forum's Olympic Peninsula expert. The Coupeville ferry exists, but it's very small, not always active (Lot of choppy weather in that stretch), and rarely used. Plus I consider the number 1 rule of Washington map making to be "Don't cross the Sound"

As for chopping Jefferson county, it's worth noting that the western 3/4 of Jefferson are mostly national park land and some sparsely populated areas. Those areas have more in common with rural Clallam or Grays Harbor county than the Port Townsend half of Jefferson.

I'm surprised at your description of the ferry. I used it this last summer traveling from Bellingham to Sequim and it was extremely busy with a long line of cars and ferries every 45 minutes.

[KingSweden]

Splitting the LDs into HDs had a substantial effect in eastern WA. In the LD plan that set of regions had a political breakdown of 2e-9R. There were no districts that favored Dems at all. In the HD plan the same area was 1D-1d-3e-1r-16R. Not only are there 2 districts now that favor Dems, but one is solid D. In term of SKEW the net effect was to shift 3 points to the Dems.

In most of the regions of eastern WA there was no effect. Both parts of the Ellensburg-Moses Lake LD are just a solid R as the whole. Same thing with all four parts of the 2 LDs in the Tri-Cities area where the Hispanic population doesn't (or can't) vote and the rest is very Pub. The one lean r HD comes from the effect of Washington State Univ in Whitman county.

The shift in the distribution comes from the two large cities in the east: Spokane and Yakima. Spokane county has a population for about 3 1/2 LDs or 7 HDs. The city itself has more population than 1 LD, so it was divided along the Spokane river. The part of the city north of the river was one LD (reds) and the part south plus the west and south school districts in the county formed the other LD (cyans). Both of these were politically even with PVIs of 0 or 1. However when they were split the light red is a lean D (D+4) and the light cyan is a solid D district (D+9), leaving the dark red HD even (D+0.1) and the dark cyan HD as solid R. It is interesting to note that adding the reds together only creates a D+1 LD, but that's because the dark red provides 50% more votes than the other half and dominates the result.



The other significant change in skew comes from Yakima. Both the salmon and green combined LDs are solid R. However, the light salmon HD in the Yakima school district part of the city is an even political district, though it has half the voter turnout of the West Valley school district part of the city due to the high Hispanic population in the east part of the city. The green HD north in NE Yakima county has an even higher Hispanic population (HVAP 52%) than the Yakima city HD (HVAP 42%), but lacks the urban white Dem crossover vote of the city, so the green HD stays solid R. The light green HD in south Yakima county includes Klickitas and Skamania and is 31% HVAP, but also is 9% NVAP from the Yakama reservation. Those coalition minority votes are enough to make it an even political HD.

The light red HD in NE Spokane would contain Gonzaga University along with several of the poorest ZIP codes in Washington State - no wonder the turnout is anemic there.

That is, furthermore, one of the better splits of Spokane I've seen. The river and Division Street make natural dividing lines. I'm curious what the HD border within the cyan district is, it isn't clear from the map.

[muon2]

Splitting the LDs into HDs had a substantial effect in eastern WA. In the LD plan that set of regions had a political breakdown of 2e-9R. There were no districts that favored Dems at all. In the HD plan the same area was 1D-1d-3e-1r-16R. Not only are there 2 districts now that favor Dems, but one is solid D. In term of SKEW the net effect was to shift 3 points to the Dems.

In most of the regions of eastern WA there was no effect. Both parts of the Ellensburg-Moses Lake LD are just a solid R as the whole. Same thing with all four parts of the 2 LDs in the Tri-Cities area where the Hispanic population doesn't (or can't) vote and the rest is very Pub. The one lean r HD comes from the effect of Washington State Univ in Whitman county.

The shift in the distribution comes from the two large cities in the east: Spokane and Yakima. Spokane county has a population for about 3 1/2 LDs or 7 HDs. The city itself has more population than 1 LD, so it was divided along the Spokane river. The part of the city north of the river was one LD (reds) and the part south plus the west and south school districts in the county formed the other LD (cyans). Both of these were politically even with PVIs of 0 or 1. However when they were split the light red is a lean D (D+4) and the light cyan is a solid D district (D+9), leaving the dark red HD even (D+0.1) and the dark cyan HD as solid R. It is interesting to note that adding the reds together only creates a D+1 LD, but that's because the dark red provides 50% more votes than the other half and dominates the result.



The other significant change in skew comes from Yakima. Both the salmon and green combined LDs are solid R. However, the light salmon HD in the Yakima school district part of the city is an even political district, though it has half the voter turnout of the West Valley school district part of the city due to the high Hispanic population in the east part of the city. The green HD north in NE Yakima county has an even higher Hispanic population (HVAP 52%) than the Yakima city HD (HVAP 42%), but lacks the urban white Dem crossover vote of the city, so the green HD stays solid R. The light green HD in south Yakima county includes Klickitas and Skamania and is 31% HVAP, but also is 9% NVAP from the Yakama reservation. Those coalition minority votes are enough to make it an even political HD.

The light red HD in NE Spokane would contain Gonzaga University along with several of the poorest ZIP codes in Washington State - no wonder the turnout is anemic there.

That is, furthermore, one of the better splits of Spokane I've seen. The river and Division Street make natural dividing lines. I'm curious what the HD border within the cyan district is, it isn't clear from the map.

Ideally I would just follow Hangman creek, but that leaves the dark part about 5000 people short compared to the light part. To balance the population I shifted the Comstock area south of 29th and west of Perry. Technically the map shows the area east of Grand and north of 37th staying in the light area. That's because the precinct west of the creek includes the neighborhood between the creek and the tracks north of 14th so the dark area has that extra population. If precincts could be split I would probably have swapped those areas.

[Alcon]

The Port Townsend-Keystone ferry has nearly 2,000 riders a day and runs every 90 minutes.  Definitely far from Washington's busiest ferry, but I'm not sure I agree it's "barely used."  (I won't claim to be an expert, but I spent a lot of the summer growing up between Port Townsend and Sequim.)

Island should obviously connect through Skagit in an ideal world, tho.