Washington Legislative Districts (user search)
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jimrtex
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« on: February 05, 2016, 03:39:21 PM »

I thought of an interesting experiment.

Washington state has 49 Legislative Districts, which each elect one Senator and two Representatives on the same map. It has been pointed out before that this essentially makes each Rep. a "min-senator" and often concentrates political influence as Senators and Representatives often hail from the same part of each district.
There is no requirement that house districts and senate districts be coterminous, or that representatives be elected by position (A and B). There is a requirement that they nest.

Back before OMOV was rigidly enforced, there would a variable number of representatives per senate district, and they were not elected by position. In the 50s and early 60s, representative districts would be moved into the Seattle area, as a way to fend off a popular insurrection. So in more rural areas, there would be one senator and one representative, while in the Seattle area there might be three senators and one representative.

After the OMOV rulings were applied to Washington, there were several instances of separate A and B house districts, particularly in more rural areas. This may have been to preserve existing districts, since while the area became part of larger senate district, its representative district might have remained the same.

IIRC, the last of these were in the 1990s. There was one senate district that went down the Columbia to the Pacific Coast, and one representative district was on the coast, and the other in the Longview area.

A particular problem with the current system is the stagger of senate elections, since if a district is drastically altered, it may cause some areas to have no senator for two years, and other areas to have two senators. This is somewhat mitigated in Washington since most districts in the eastern part of the state elect senators in off years, while in the west area they are mostly in the presidential/gubernatorial year. With higher turnout in these elections, there may be reinforcement of the partisan divide. Since Democratic turnout is higher in the presidential-gubernatorial years, swing districts may be pushed to lean Democratic, and Democratic success may lead to ambitious local politicians to run as Democrats for the legislature.

In the off years, Democrats tend not to run in strongly Republican districts. There are no coattails, and no money to run a campaign.

When a representative proposed a bill that would have split the representative districts, he got a decidedly cold reception. A particular concern was that it would probably have paired many incumbents. When he suggested that this could be worked out in most cases (for you to do that, you would have to know where the representatives lived, and probably draw odd fingers to separate the two).

Those opposed to the idea mentioned the case of one representative who could look down into their  fellow representative's back yard. Since it was a he and a she involved, it sounded kind of creepy.
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jimrtex
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Posts: 11,828
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2016, 04:04:01 PM »


For this exercise I just concentrated on county and subunit integrity. King came out to 14.07 LDs, so I placed it in its own region and worked from there. The only UCC violation is from that choice and its impact on the Seattle and adjacent UCCs.

Since the interesting results were in eastern WA, I don't know that the UCC factor would make a difference in the conclusions about nesting. There are four yellow-green counties on jimrtex's WA UCC map, but none are in a UCC (I'm guessing they are left over from an earlier map) so there are no violations in the east. However the three county Seattle UCC is a nice 25.07 LDs so I will take a look. In the meantime my clean connection map examples for the other thread will have to wait. Tongue

I had not used the final map for the NW USA. It is now corrected.

At the scale of legislative districts, there is little risk of spanning multiple UCCs. Even if an apportionment region spanned multiple UCCs there is little risk of districts doing so. My preference would be to minimize county splits, rather than having a UCC pack rule.

A county pack rule, as used in Ohio and Texas might be a reasonable control.

*Texas and California senate districts, and perhaps California assembly districts are exceptions.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2016, 09:16:11 PM »

I found a plan of LD regions that as many as my previous plan and keeps the Seattle UCC as a single region. The Olympia region is 11,191 under the quota for three LDs, but this is less than 5% per district. It's just within the limit of 5%*sqrt(N) for N districts as suggested once by jimrtex as a guide for maximum regional deviation.



I used this to rework the LDs in western WA, then draw HDs from those LDs. Starting from this regional plan meets all UCC packs and covers, and reduces the number of county chops at the increase of subunit chops. Some may also appreciate that I as able to attach Island to Skagit. Here's the greater Seattle-Tacoma area. As before, similar colors (light and dark) represent the pairs of HD in an LD.



At the LD level the plan is 21D-6d-7e-2r-13R, which shifts one seat from even to lean d for a SKEW of 2D. At the HD the plan is 39D-19d-8e-11r-21R, which shifts 2 even HDs to lean d and 2 even HDs to lean r, thus keeping the SKEW at 6D.

Effectively there is little partisan difference in SKEW by keeping the Seattle UCC intact and a modest increase in POLARIZATION due to the loss of even seats. That increased POLARIZATION suggests that there would be less swing in seats between elections such as 2012 to 2014. Nonetheless the main conclusion remains that dividing LDs into HDs helps Dems due to the remote urban centers in eastern WA, and changes little in the dense urban regions of western WA.
Would it be feasible to go from Grays Harbor to Lewis, avoiding the double chop of Thurston?

Also, why not put all of Jefferson in the same house district?

Are the only districts that cross the Pierce-King and Snohomish-King line the eastern districts (light brown and aqua)?
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