Republicans probably have more incentive to kill off the Iowa caucuses. Between ethanol subsidies and a history of propping up hardline SoCons who are unacceptable to the general election median voter, it's almost all negatives for them. On the Democratic side, there will be increasing demands to start in a more diverse state, but there's a stronger counter argument that caucus ground game is the main thing keeping them competitive in November. If they scrap the 1st in the nation caucus, there's a substantial chance the state goes WV on them over the next several elections. And they really need to hold up the floor with rural Northern whites to keep their EC advantage.
Agreed. 132 Electoral Votes are on the line with Northern rural whites:
Arguably, Montana and Oregon could be put on the same list. If Democrats go down much more with rural Northern whites, Illinois could be Toss-up.
