Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
Posts: 8,344
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« on: February 05, 2016, 12:17:40 PM » |
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The last two cycles have shown that the caucus system (at least in Iowa) in both parties is not designed for close races. In 2012 on the GOP side you actually had the wrong person declared winner only to be reversed a couple weeks later (perhaps too late for it to matter). And it is possible the same thing could happen on the Dem side for this year (there will at least be lingering doubts for some about the results).
And of course there is the issue (especially on the Dem side) that Iowa is not reflective of the party as a whole.
So, in 2020 at least one of the parties will have a competitive nomination contest and by 2024 at least the other will. So is Iowa's position in doubt? Can a caucus in this state continue to have such an important role in the winnowing process? And if not, what would be better? And how would that be achieved? Could both parties agree to something different? Could we end up with different first contests? Could there be disagreements and states leapfrogging eachother to be first (possibly with national parties penalizing them).
This cycle the setting of the calendar was rather organized and peaceful. My bet is that for the next cycle it is not going to be. A lot of states are going to argue that Iowa has screwed up on both sides and lost its right to go first.
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