NH-WBUR: Sanders and Trump ahead
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  NH-WBUR: Sanders and Trump ahead
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Author Topic: NH-WBUR: Sanders and Trump ahead  (Read 1514 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: February 05, 2016, 03:57:19 PM »

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, of Vermont, leading former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 54 percent to 39 percent.



http://www.wbur.org/2016/02/05/final-wbur-poll-new-hampshire
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2016, 04:01:23 PM »

Once again Trump is seen holding steady around the 30% marker.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2016, 04:16:34 PM »

Carly's been using this on FB to argue that she's in sixth and should be let in.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2016, 04:17:23 PM »
« Edited: February 05, 2016, 04:19:57 PM by TN volunteer »

Junk poll.

Also:

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lol
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2016, 04:19:35 PM »

What did Christie do? Eat a baby?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2016, 04:26:08 PM »

RIP Christie.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2016, 04:28:04 PM »

Articles says Dem race tightened "slightly".  What was their last poll?  Atlas doesn't identify this poll as WBUR or whatever.
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indysaff
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« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2016, 04:31:51 PM »

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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2016, 04:32:54 PM »
« Edited: February 05, 2016, 04:45:25 PM by cinyc »

I thought there was a WBUR NH poll from a few weeks ago.  Why does the graphic show their last poll as December?

Edit: I found the answer.  Their January poll was of independents only.
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YPestis25
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« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2016, 04:40:51 PM »

For the Dems, these numbers seem to be pretty reasonable. Sadly, those ridiculous CNN polls may really make the expectation's game difficult for Sanders to win.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2016, 04:47:38 PM »

Interesting that the margin among young people is so small. Sanders beat Clinton by about 70 points in the under 30 group in IA; here, it's just 28 points. I'm not entirely sure why it'd be so much lower in his effective home state than in a place like IA (obviously it has nothing to do with racial diversity), but we might be in for a surprise performance when compared to his margin in the poll.

Also, I'm guessing that based on the 28-point margin being so (relatively) close to the 15-point margin at-large, Sanders is winning all age groups with relative ease.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2016, 04:57:56 PM »

Interesting that the margin among young people is so small. Sanders beat Clinton by about 70 points in the under 30 group in IA; here, it's just 28 points. I'm not entirely sure why it'd be so much lower in his effective home state than in a place like IA (obviously it has nothing to do with racial diversity), but we might be in for a surprise performance when compared to his margin in the poll.

Also, I'm guessing that based on the 28-point margin being so (relatively) close to the 15-point margin at-large, Sanders is winning all age groups with relative ease.

I found the cross-tabs which show Sanders against Clinton:
61-33 (+28) among ages 18-29
55-39 (+16) among ages 30-44
56-38 (+18) among ages 45-59
45-46 (-1) among ages 60+

It's weird how Sanders' lead is actually higher with the 2nd oldest group than with the 2nd youngest group.

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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
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« Reply #12 on: February 05, 2016, 05:04:48 PM »

Good bye Christie,Carson and Gilmore especially Gilmore! It's been fun.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2016, 05:06:32 PM »

Jeb being within 3 of Marco is especially interesting. If he somehow pulls it off and gets second place, we're going to be in for an especially long primary season.
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« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2016, 05:39:59 PM »

For the Dems, these numbers seem to be pretty reasonable. Sadly, those ridiculous CNN polls may really make the expectation's game difficult for Sanders to win.

After a certain percentage (around 15% or so) a landslide is a landslide and any drivel about expectations games goes out the window.

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2016, 05:56:47 PM »

For the Dems, these numbers seem to be pretty reasonable. Sadly, those ridiculous CNN polls may really make the expectation's game difficult for Sanders to win.

After a certain percentage (around 15% or so) a landslide is a landslide and any drivel about expectations games goes out the window.



I mean, according to some people, Hillary's 0.4-point delegate win in Iowa (which was almost certainly a Sanders victory in terms of the number of bodies that turned out to caucus) was a MASSIVE mandate that totally changed the expectations game, so I guess the narrative is fair game!
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2016, 06:06:03 PM »

For the Dems, these numbers seem to be pretty reasonable. Sadly, those ridiculous CNN polls may really make the expectation's game difficult for Sanders to win.

After a certain percentage (around 15% or so) a landslide is a landslide and any drivel about expectations games goes out the window.



I mean, according to some people, Hillary's 0.4-point delegate win in Iowa (which was almost certainly a Sanders victory in terms of the number of bodies that turned out to caucus) was a MASSIVE mandate that totally changed the expectations game, so I guess the narrative is fair game!

Yep, Sanders is more than welcome to take credit for a landslide in a state that should be in the bag for him, demographically speaking. Whether that's really worth much is another thing, but I guess it will be, since his second place finish in another state that he should have easily won was still called a victory.
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« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2016, 06:07:17 PM »
« Edited: February 05, 2016, 06:09:34 PM by HockeyDude »

For the Dems, these numbers seem to be pretty reasonable. Sadly, those ridiculous CNN polls may really make the expectation's game difficult for Sanders to win.

After a certain percentage (around 15% or so) a landslide is a landslide and any drivel about expectations games goes out the window.



I mean, according to some people, Hillary's 0.4-point delegate win in Iowa (which was almost certainly a Sanders victory in terms of the number of bodies that turned out to caucus) was a MASSIVE mandate that totally changed the expectations game, so I guess the narrative is fair game!

America likes a winner, dude.  Completely different.  Iowa had that narrative of nailbiter.  Clinton got the win.  NH has the narrative of a Sanders win.  So he needs to hit a solid 15% or so blowout.  15% would do it if the polls were literally anywhere, because it has that "landslide feel".  The narrative of "better than expected" doesn't work in a win that big. 
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #18 on: February 05, 2016, 06:12:38 PM »

For the Dems, these numbers seem to be pretty reasonable. Sadly, those ridiculous CNN polls may really make the expectation's game difficult for Sanders to win.

After a certain percentage (around 15% or so) a landslide is a landslide and any drivel about expectations games goes out the window.



I mean, according to some people, Hillary's 0.4-point delegate win in Iowa (which was almost certainly a Sanders victory in terms of the number of bodies that turned out to caucus) was a MASSIVE mandate that totally changed the expectations game, so I guess the narrative is fair game!

Yep, Sanders is more than welcome to take credit for a landslide in a state that should be in the bag for him, demographically speaking. Whether that's really worth much is another thing, but I guess it will be, since his second place finish in another state that he should have easily won was still called a victory.

How the flying F was Iowa supposed to be an easy win for a candidate who had ZERO organization, name-recognition, money, support, and poll numbers in the single digits not ONE YEAR ago against the most recognizable name in the Democratic Party who never left the state since 2008? 

Please.  I'm all ears.  Oh yea... I forgot.  Because Bernie is running a white supremacist campaign according to you PC dolts and Iowa is SUPAH-WHITE!
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indysaff
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« Reply #19 on: February 05, 2016, 06:16:31 PM »

To be fair, Clinton had a huge lead in Iowa at the beginning and it dwindled down to a .3% win.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #20 on: February 05, 2016, 06:26:24 PM »

To be fair, Clinton had a huge lead in Iowa at the beginning and it dwindled down to a .3% win.


WELL PUT!

You get a...

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: February 05, 2016, 09:08:33 PM »

Will we ever get another non-college poll of New Hampshire? (ARG and Gravis Marketing don't count.)
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #22 on: February 05, 2016, 09:56:04 PM »

Not sure why these haven't been included yet but the Democratic side is at 53-39 Sanders.
Also:

Crosstabs are included near the top of the article if people are looking for those.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #23 on: February 05, 2016, 10:55:57 PM »

Please, please, please let Jim Gilmore beat Carson. That would be incredible.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2016, 12:23:41 AM »

Junk poll.

Also:

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lol
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