Monmouth: 24% of Trump's supporters in IA stayed home at caucus night.
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  Monmouth: 24% of Trump's supporters in IA stayed home at caucus night. 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: Monmouth: 24% of Trump's supporters in IA stayed home at caucus night.  (Read 839 times)
weixiaobao
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« on: February 05, 2016, 04:14:49 PM »
"Among those who initially supported Trump, 24% decided to stay home on caucus night. This is
larger than the number of initial Cruz (13%) and Rubio (13%) supporters who did not participate. Also,
only 16% of Carson’s initial supporters did not turn out. The non-participation rate was higher (24%) –
and identical to Trump’s number – for supporters of the remaining candidates in the field. "

http://monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/3237b4ab-866f-457f-8c51-da59d15c0d01.pdf
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indysaff
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« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2016, 04:17:57 PM »
Ouch
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2016, 04:20:58 PM »
Lol
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2016, 04:21:47 PM »
This might be why he's really pushing folks in NH that they need to vote, regardless of how the polls look.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2016, 04:22:18 PM »
Polls showed Trump performing best with young voters.
Entrance polls showed the under-30s was his worst age group.
Looks like right-wing populism doesn't turn out the youth as well as left-wing populism does.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2016, 04:57:30 PM »
Still not enough in raw numbers to have won it for him, but definitely indicative of the non-campaign infrastructure in Trumpland.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2016, 05:06:31 PM »
Probably stayed home and watched Duck Dynasty.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2016, 05:07:27 PM »
Quote from: New Canadaland on February 05, 2016, 04:22:18 PM
Polls showed Trump performing best with young voters.
Entrance polls showed the under-30s was his worst age group.
Looks like right-wing populism doesn't turn out the youth as well as left-wing populism does.

All of the young Trump supporters are being ironic.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2016, 08:38:08 PM »
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That doesn't bode well for the establishment candidates not named Rubio in New Hampshire.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2016, 08:39:03 PM »
Let's pray that this happens again in New Hampshire.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2016, 05:42:49 AM »
Looks like someone on this very forum called it:

Quote from: Representative Carpetbagger on February 01, 2016, 11:18:52 AM
I predict Cruz will win the Caucus.  Enough of Trump's supporters will forget to vote.
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tallguy23
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2016, 05:43:22 PM »
Too much Keystone Light I bet.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2016, 05:55:10 PM »
"Quelle surprise," said no one ever.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2016, 06:24:55 PM »
Okay, yo. I did the math on this, and although I'm no math guy, here are the numbers that I got for how it would have gone if his supporters had all turned out. I could be wrong, but it looks about right.

Trump: 59,773 29.7%
Cruz: 51,666 25.7%
Rubio: 43,165 21.5%
Carson: 17,395 8.7%
Paul: 8,481 4.2%
Bush: 5,238 2.6%
Fiorina: 3,485 1.7%
Kasich: 3,474 1.7%
Huckabee: 3,345 1.6%
Christie: 3,284 1.6%
Santorum: 1,783 0.8%

Total: 201,220

So, a fairly comfortable 8,000-vote (4%) win over Cruz. Imagine how much momentum he'd have going into New Hampshire right now Tongue
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