NC: CDs 1 & 12 struck down

[RBH]

if this redistricting thing occurred in 2015, she could have just ran for the Senate instead of running in that 13th district.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Back in the 7th.

[/]

And we have a map:

Wait, this is the ACTUAL new map? Wow.

So are there any possible Dem pickups, or is it basically just the same thing from a partisan perspective? If it is, then why did the GOP even bother gerrymandering so much in the first place?

[Miles]

^ It should be the same 10-3 barring a wave.

Here's the partisan data. Hagan's best Republican district was CD13, which she lost 52/44.

[/]

^ It should be the same 10-3 barring a wave.

Here's the partisan data. Hagan's best Republican district was CD13, which she lost 52/44.

How does this affect March 15?

[Miles]

^Downballot primaries will probably be delayed, but its ambiguous as to when.

[Nyvin]

And we have a map:

Wait, this is the ACTUAL new map? Wow.

So are there any possible Dem pickups, or is it basically just the same thing from a partisan perspective? If it is, then why did the GOP even bother gerrymandering so much in the first place?

They created the most Democratic districts possible into as few districts as possible, then basically tried to evenly divide the Republican vote around the state throughout the rest of the districts.

That's why all the Republican PVI's are all around R+10 or R+12 and nothing outside that range. 

It's basically all you can possibly get out of gerrymandering without downright absurd districts.

[Miles]

The legislators really wanted to get rid of Holding - there were any number of ways that they could have dealt him a better hand. For instance, keeping all of Johnston in CD7 and giving Wayne to CD2 would have helped both Rouzer and Holding.

Ellmers is in surprisingly good shape. Yes, she'll presumably be running against another incumbent, but her primary opponent Jeff Duncan (from Chatham County) now lives in the Triad-centric CD6. Ellmers also represented Johnston, Nash and Franklin counties in the district that she originally won.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So no presidential data?

[Miles]

^ No, I'm not finding any in the reports.

[jimrtex]

^Downballot primaries will probably be delayed, but its ambiguous as to when.

This article suggests that only the congressional primaries will be rerun NC Republicans release new Congressional district maps

The legislators and governor would have zero interest in a do-over of their primaries, which would also permit new filing. Turnout will not be down, because of the presidential primary. It also would be messy because primaries are contingent on there being two candidates.

North Carolina has provisions for special elections for the US, which include a primary. It should be relatively simple to write statutes that says to do the special congressional elections using that procedure. This could let the governor set the date of the special primaries - which will have to be based on the district court reviewing the new plan.

[Dancing with Myself]

This whole thing was a mess when they first did it and it still is now. The state of NC in general cannot seem to get any basic things right in terms of group counties. They can't here and even can't for random things like high school athletics it's a freaking nightmare across the board.

Pardon my irrelevance there.

As for my thoughts:

Ehh I kind of like it in certain ways. We are back with the counties we belong with. Putting us and Stokes county with Wilkes and Yadkin over Rockingham and Caswell is perfect. We were always the red-headed step child of the 2012 version of district 6. I was proud to vote for Coble in 2012 but he was too old and never came around. The jerk that replaced him never did anything either and the time I seen him in person last year he was nothing a tool. Good riddance. Foxx isn't better but at least she came around here when she was our Rep and wasn't obnoxious about it.

I hate it for Alma Adams in NC 12, she more or less lost her seat. She's one of the few local reps I liked. She will have to either face Walker in 6 or go for 13 and neither is easy. The whole moving of 12 seems like a favor to McCory since he's from that area.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Already updated our forum's house map, fyi:





It also includes the new maps for Florida and Virginia, btw. 

[Nyvin]

It looks like it will be remotely possible for the Dems to win NC-13 and NC-9 now,  if not in 2016 at least sometime before 2020.

[Gass3268]

It looks like it will be remotely possible for the Dems to win NC-13 and NC-9 now,  if not in 2016 at least sometime before 2020.

It would be awesome to see 2012 numbers first.

[muon2]

Here's my estimate of the PVIs.

NC-01: D+14
NC-02: R+8
NC-03: R+11
NC-04: D+12
NC-05: R+9
NC-06: R+8
NC-07: R+9
NC-08: R+8
NC-09: R+8
NC-10: R+12
NC-11: R+12
NC-12: D+14
NC-13: R+5

Since I don't have the exact lines in Greensboro, NC-13 may be a bit more Pub and NC-06 a little less Pub.

[Gass3268]

Stephen Wolf from DKE also did the 2012 results:



The 13th might be competitive in the future if Guilford continues to trend D. McIntyre possibly could have held on with this version of CD-7

[JerryArkansas]

Already updated our forum's house map, fyi:



Wow, my drawings of Virginia and Florida are part of the map.   


It also includes the new maps for Florida and Virginia, btw. 

[Torie]

That Research Triangle area Dem sink CD is just so cute. And Muon2 would not characterize what is going on there as a bridge chop, because he's a stubborn cuss.

[muon2]

That Research Triangle area Dem sink CD is just so cute. And Muon2 would not characterize what is going on there as a bridge chop, because he's a stubborn cuss.

Of course its a bridge chop in the larger sense of a strip of low population used to connect two areas of larger population. It's just not one to which I would ascribe any special penalty since one population (Wake) is already subject to a county chop penalty and subunit chop penalties, too.

I was impressed that the new map avoids any traveling chops has only one chop more than the minimum and still reaches their partisan goals.

[jimrtex]

That Research Triangle area Dem sink CD is just so cute. And Muon2 would not characterize what is going on there as a bridge chop, because he's a stubborn cuss.

Of course its a bridge chop in the larger sense of a strip of low population used to connect two areas of larger population. It's just not one to which I would ascribe any special penalty since one population (Wake) is already subject to a county chop penalty and subunit chop penalties, too.

I was impressed that the new map avoids any traveling chops has only one chop more than the minimum and still reaches their partisan goals.

How about putting all of Bladen in 9, then shifting through Cumberland, Rowan, and Guilford, and put the Wake-Orange bridge through Chatham, continuing through Wake and Johnston to complete the rotation.

Then put all of Durham in 1, and rotate through Wilson, and Wake.

The two rotations in Wake are in opposite directions so that the adjustment to 4 in Wake is the difference between the 4 portion of Durham, and the 7 portion of Bladen.

The NC-7 portion of Bladen has a population of 8981
The NC-4 portion of Durham has a population of 27,288

So shifts of 8981:

NC-7 to NC-9 in Bladen (remainder of Bladen)
NC-9 to NC-8 in Cumberland
NC-8 to NC-13 in Rowan
NC-13 to NC-6 in Guilford
NC-6 to NC-4 in Chatham
NC-4 to NC-2 in Wake
NC-2 to NC-9 in Johnston

Then a shift of 27,288

NC-4 to NC-1 in Durham (remainder of Durham)
NC-1 to NC-2 in Wilson
NC-2 to NC-4 in Wake

Net of 18307

NC-2 to NC-4 in Wake


The NC-1 portion of Wilson has 56787, but is 46.7% black
The NC-2 portion of Wilson has 24,447, and is 21.1% black.

So the area in Wilson moved into NC-2 may be slightly Democratic. Butterfield is from Wilson County, so we can be selective, claiming that we aren't going to take him out of his district. There may be pushback since Adams lives nowhere near the new NC-12.

Presumably the NC-4 portion of Wake is more Democratic, but we can probably find swingy areas, so that NC-2 does not shift much Democratic.


Thinking about, I bet they were at the minimum number of split counties, and then had to split Wilson to keep Butterfield in his district.

The map on the NC legislature web site shows incumbent residences. Talk about being on the edge of their districts.

Another interesting table is voter registration by party. While the election results are quite balanced, this is not true of registration numbers at all. Presumably voters in more rural areas register D, but vote R, while those in suburban areas are consistent in their registration and voting.


The map shows why I prefer making whole county districts. This will demonstrate a clear intent, which will let us take advantage of Tennant to the greatest extent, even we have to make a few county splits.

A goal of few county splits is easier to comprehend than a goal of small county splits.

[Vern]

So is that for sure the new map? Also, it would be interesting to see what a map would look like when we gain a CD in 2020.

[Miles]

Yeah, jimrtex, I agree - the split of Bladen County is one the aesthetic points that bugs me the most (putting aside partisan considerations).

The lone Iredell County precinct thats in CD10 is also annoying.

So is that for sure the new map? Also, it would be interesting to see what a map would look like when we gain a CD in 2020.

Assuming the SCOTUS doesn't issue a stay, it should be.

My guess is that in 2020, they add a Democratic seat either in the Triad or by combining the eastern parts of the new CDs 8 and 9 (Fayetteville-Lumberton area). I think with this map in mind, though, the former seems more likely (which would be good news for Alma Adams, who stands to be booted out now).

[Vern]

Yeah, jimrtex, I agree - the split of Bladen County is one the aesthetic points that bugs me the most (putting aside partisan considerations).

The lone Iredell County precinct thats in CD10 is also annoying.

So is that for sure the new map? Also, it would be interesting to see what a map would look like when we gain a CD in 2020.

Assuming the SCOTUS doesn't issue a stay, it should be.

My guess is that in 2020, they add a Democratic seat either in the Triad or by combining the eastern parts of the new CDs 8 and 9 (Fayetteville-Lumberton area). I think with this map in mind, though, the former seems more likely (which would be good news for Alma Adams, who stands to be booted out now).

I live in Guilford, so I hope that they don't make all of Guilford in a Democratic sink hole in 2020. lol.

[muon2]

Yeah, jimrtex, I agree - the split of Bladen County is one the aesthetic points that bugs me the most (putting aside partisan considerations).

The lone Iredell County precinct thats in CD10 is also annoying.

The population in that partial Iredell precinct is small enough that one could arguably absorb that deviation under recent SCOTUS rulings. That's the problem with a partisan gerrymander. In order to defend it against legal challenge, the mappers pretty much have to go for exact equality. That forces the small chops like we see in the map.