Will Sanders break 40% in the following 3/1/16 states?

[ElectionsGuy]

I think Virginia and North Carolina are his only chances. I don't know what to expect from the south, but I certainly don't expect Sanders to win any of these, and I don't expect much of a showing from the deep south and states with traditionally conservative Democrats (Arkansas, Oklahoma, etc.).

Ignore North Carolina, it actually votes on March 15th.

[°Leprechaun]

All 8, yes.

[The Other Castro]

All but 1 or 2, though I don't know which ones.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Virginia maybe, everywhere else? NOPE

[Lief 🗽]

Possibly in Virginia, North Carolina and Texas (if he can improve with Hispanics). But the rest, no. I suspect Clinton will break 60% easily in most of these states (with a surprisingly high protest vote for Webb or O'Malley).

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Possibly in Virginia, North Carolina and Texas (if he can improve with Hispanics). But the rest, no. I suspect Clinton will break 60% easily in most of these states (with a surprisingly high protest vote for Webb or O'Malley).

Is Webb even on the Super Tuesday states ballots?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Oklahoma and Tennessee definitely. He might have a shot at actually winning them - OK is HEAVILY white, and so is TN outside of one county. A lot of Dixiecrats will stay home with two ultra-liberal candidates, and the "real" democrats lean more liberal, as there's no point in being a Democrat in either state unless you REALLY can't stand conservatism.

Beyond that, he has a good shot at it in Texas and Virginia. No on the others, unless Overtime is actually correct on AR being close.

[henster]

I definitely can see Bernie winning Oklahoma outright, very rural state, white electorate. Hillary did poorly in rural counties in Iowa.

[ElectionsGuy]

Guys I just realized that North Carolina isn't on super Tuesday, it actually votes on the 15th. Ugh.

[Lief 🗽]

Possibly in Virginia, North Carolina and Texas (if he can improve with Hispanics). But the rest, no. I suspect Clinton will break 60% easily in most of these states (with a surprisingly high protest vote for Webb or O'Malley).

Is Webb even on the Super Tuesday states ballots?

Oh yeah, that's true. I guess they'll just vote for O'Malley then.

[Figueira]

Possibly in Virginia, North Carolina and Texas (if he can improve with Hispanics). But the rest, no. I suspect Clinton will break 60% easily in most of these states (with a surprisingly high protest vote for Webb or O'Malley).

Is Webb even on the Super Tuesday states ballots?

I know that in Massachusetts, the only candidates on the ballot are Clinton, Sanders, O'Malley, and Fuentes or whatever his name is.

[°Leprechaun]

More important, how many can he win? If he loses all eight he is in trouble.

[The Other Castro]

More important, how many can he win? If he loses all eight he is in trouble.

Well, these aren't the only states voting on Super Tuesday. He has a solid shot at winning a couple of these.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

To call Super Tuesday a success, Sanders needs to sweep VT, CO, and MN, and get two of MA, OK, TN. He also needs to get at least 35% of the vote in every state, so he can get a good number of delegates.

[angus]

I voted for all but Arkansas.  I guess Clinton will win 70% or so there.

[°Leprechaun]

Isn't North Carolina March 15?
according to this site it is:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

wikipedia as well

[tallguy23]

I can only see Virginia.

[°Leprechaun]

If he loses them all, but wins the other four, depending on per cents he could be ok. If he loses them badly that is another matter, he would have to be close in some of them. It may be more about surviving than about winning big, since this would be one of his most difficult days to win.

[ElectionsGuy]

Oklahoma and Tennessee definitely. He might have a shot at actually winning them - OK is HEAVILY white, and so is TN outside of one county. A lot of Dixiecrats will stay home with two ultra-liberal candidates, and the "real" democrats lean more liberal, as there's no point in being a Democrat in either state unless you REALLY can't stand conservatism.

Beyond that, he has a good shot at it in Texas and Virginia. No on the others, unless Overtime is actually correct on AR being close.

Oklahoma is actually less white than Tennessee at 67%. Although a lot of that is Native American which I suspect turnout will be low.

[The Other Castro]

Oklahoma and Tennessee definitely. He might have a shot at actually winning them - OK is HEAVILY white, and so is TN outside of one county. A lot of Dixiecrats will stay home with two ultra-liberal candidates, and the "real" democrats lean more liberal, as there's no point in being a Democrat in either state unless you REALLY can't stand conservatism.

Beyond that, he has a good shot at it in Texas and Virginia. No on the others, unless Overtime is actually correct on AR being close.

Oklahoma is actually less white than Tennessee at 67%. Although a lot of that is Native American which I suspect turnout will be low.

A Warren endorsement could help with that (well at least with 1/64th of them).

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Isn't Massachusetts on March 1?

[Adam Griffin]

Basically, any state where the black population is more than 20% is a non-starter. This means that Alabama, Georgia and North Carolina automatically get crossed off the list. I know some people will want to argue about North Carolina, but the share of liberal whites won't be enough to overcome the black share of the electorate, which could be more than 45% of voters. Depending on how deep in the South you are, 20% of the population being black means that your Democratic primary voting bloc will be anywhere from 35% to 45% black.

In reality, I think any state where the black population is 15% or more could be thrown onto the same list, but I'm trying not to cross off too many states at once. The states that have black populations between 15% and 20% are Virginia, Arkansas and Tennessee. Arkansas is its own little ecosystem; obviously Clinton will win it even if the black population was only 10%. In these states, blacks will comprise anywhere from 25% to 35% of the Democratic primary electorate. I don't think NoVA is very friendly territory for Sanders, and so I expect his white vote here will be relatively weak. Tennessee (much like KY and AR) is really still such in a time-warp, and I expect whites will go quite resoundingly for Clinton along with blacks.

We're left with Oklahoma and Texas.

I'm assuming Oklahoma is normal and has separate primaries for presidential and state/local. This will mean that a lot of those county-level Dixiecrats won't be voting in the presidential primary. Oklahoma is only about 8% black. Its presidential primary will likely be a little over 20% black; approximately two-thirds white. There'll be a few Latinos and Native Americans voting here as well, which could make a small difference if the margin were somewhat close.

Texas, however, is a different story in terms of diversity. Even though the black population is only about 12%, Latino participation in primaries is markedly lower. This will result in both white and black shares of the Democratic primary electorate being heavily inflated. It's completely possible that Texas' Democratic primary electorate will look comparable to, say, Tennessee's Democratic primary electorate when it comes to the share of the primary voters who are black (30-35% black); possibly even more. This is because Latinos will likely make up less than one-quarter of the primary bloc and whites here are about as Republican as they come.

If anyone is interested in doing some plug and play, then I highly recommend looking at my "Who Comprised the Obama Coalition in the 2012 Election" map. This was done to determine racial breakdowns by state of Obama's voters in 2012. For primaries, my general rule of thumb is to reduce the Latino share of the electorate by at least one-third and re-distribute those percentages proportionately among the black and white segments of the Democratic electorate. That'll give you a general idea of what the primary electorate will likely resemble.

[/]

aren't you kind of forgetting that north carolina isn't a super tuesday state

[°Leprechaun]

aren't you kind of forgetting that north carolina isn't a super tuesday state

thanks