Who will win the California primary?
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  Who will win the California primary?
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Question: Who will win the California primary?
#1
Clinton
#2
Sanders
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Author Topic: Who will win the California primary?  (Read 1990 times)
tallguy23
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« on: February 06, 2016, 05:31:27 PM »

Let's say the Dem nomination is still in contention by June. Who wins the Golden State?
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TDAS04
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« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2016, 05:32:41 PM »

Clinton because of minorities, especially Hispanics.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2016, 05:35:12 PM »

If I had to guess now, Clinton, but Sanders has potential there.
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tallguy23
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« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2016, 05:36:24 PM »

The Bat Area/SF will be very pro-Bernie, but I think SoCal will put Clinton over the top.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2016, 05:39:34 PM »

If the race makes it all the way to California, Sanders must have made good inroads with Hispanics by then in order to have made it that far. Given that he's only down about 10 now, he would be in good shape for California.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: February 06, 2016, 05:53:15 PM »

I'm expecting something like a 55/45 Clinton victory, with Los Angeles and SoCal giving her the massive cushion against northern California and the uber liberal bay area.
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Figueira
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« Reply #6 on: February 06, 2016, 06:10:25 PM »

If the race makes it all the way to California, Sanders must have made good inroads with Hispanics by then in order to have made it that far. Given that he's only down about 10 now, he would be in good shape for California.

This. Normally I'd say Clinton, but if Sanders is basically tied nationwide he has a chance there.
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°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« Reply #7 on: February 06, 2016, 06:17:42 PM »

Probably Clinton.
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angus
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« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2016, 06:30:08 PM »


Mammals capable of sustained flight can be unpredictable and annoying.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2016, 06:30:55 PM »

I imagine that us Southern Californians would hand our state to Clinton. If Sanders has make some inroads with Latinos by then, though, I'd rate it as a tossup or even give him a very slight edge.
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Figueira
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2016, 08:30:09 PM »

I imagine that us Southern Californians would hand our state to Clinton. If Sanders has make some inroads with Latinos by then, though, I'd rate it as a tossup or even give him a very slight edge.

If the race is still competitive by California, then we can assume that Sanders has made some inroads among Latinos.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #11 on: February 06, 2016, 09:13:37 PM »

Clinton, either by monopoly (Sanders is out by then) or by slightly over 2008 numbers (because she has the minority advantage...even in the Bay Area Sanders could be hit.)
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2016, 09:47:23 PM »



Clinton - 56%
Sanders - 41%
O'Malley - 2%
Others - 1%

This is assuming that the race is still competitive. CA is not that great of a state for Bernie due to the large minority populations, which hurt him in the major population centers and the Central Valley. He'll do well in rural Northern CA, counties with large amounts of college kids, and some parts of the Bay Area.

By the time the election actually rolls around, I think that Bernie would be lucky to win a county.

O'Malley is out, but it wouldn't change that much.
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cwt
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2016, 09:49:43 PM »

I imagine that us Southern Californians would hand our state to Clinton. If Sanders has make some inroads with Latinos by then, though, I'd rate it as a tossup or even give him a very slight edge.

If the race is still competitive by California, then we can assume that Sanders has made some inroads among Latinos.

He already has. A large number of Latin Americans favor socialism.

The only thing Clinton has is name recognition.
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