Predict NH Dem numbers

[Progressive]

My prediction

Bernie 53%
Hillary 46%

[Xing]

Sanders 56%
Clinton 44%

The race has tightened since Sanders was ahead by over 20, but he's still likely headed for a large victory.

Oh, and...

inb4 TNVolunteer predicts a Clinton win because of NH women. We all know that's coming.

[Maxwell]

Last prediction from me:

54% Bernie
46% Hillary

A fine result for Bernie, but it won't give him enough of a boost to completely change the narrative and he'll lose South Carolina big, Nevada big, and then by the end of Super Tuesday he'll be relegated to protest candidate status.

[VPH]

58% Bernie
42% Clinton

[Holmes]

Sanders 54%
Clinton 45%
Other 1%

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Sanders 57%
Clinton 42%

BIG VICTORY!

[Pyro]

Sanders: 59%
Clinton: 41%

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Bernie: 58%
Clinton: 39.5%

Others: 2.5%

Also, the counties:

Sanders: 7

Grafton, Carroll, Sullivan, Cheshire, Merrimack, Coos, Belknap

Clinton: 3

Rockingham, Hillsborough (more like Hillarysborough), Strafford

The counties are listed by strength for each candidate. I'm assuming a 57-41 Bernie win.

[ProgCon]

56.4% - Bernie Sanders
42.5% - Hillary Clinton
01.1% - Others

[Shadows]

A very solid 18-22% margin depending on young voter turnout.

Sanders - 59-61%
Clinton - 39-41%

[Figueira]

Sanders 55
Clinton 45

[NHI]

Sanders: 53%
Clinton:   45%
Other: 2%

[Bacon King]

Hillary 53%
Bernie 46%

[mvd10]

Sanders 58
Clinton 42

[Crumpets]

Sanders 54%
Clinton 45%
Other 1%

[Shadows]

I have predicted a Clinton win in NH 2 weeks ago (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016D/pred.php?action=indpred&id=342), but it all depends on whether Sanders can get more than 17% of angry women. If he can't, Clinton will win quite easily. My prediction right now:

My guess for Tuesday:

Angry women (33%?!?!): Hillary Clinton 81%, Bernie Sanders 19%
Young voters (18%): Bernie Sanders 80%, Hillary Clinton 20%
Others (49%): Bernie Sanders 60%, Hillary Clinton 40%

Final result: Hillary Clinton 49.93%, Bernie Sanders 50.07%

Because of the growing influence of young voters (see also: NH-PRES 2012), Sanders might, just might eke out a razor-thin victory despite losing the angry womens vote by 62 points (which is still better than how Scott Brown did in 2014!).
 
TL;DR:
If Sanders gets less than 17% of the angry womens vote (which is definitely possible), there is no realistic way he can win New Hampshire. And he better hope that they don't comprise more than 33% of the electorate, otherwise he's toast.

What is the difference between normal & angry women? How do you find them?

[Xing]

I have predicted a Clinton win in NH 2 weeks ago (https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2016D/pred.php?action=indpred&id=342), but it all depends on whether Sanders can get more than 17% of angry women. If he can't, Clinton will win quite easily. My prediction right now:

My guess for Tuesday:

Angry women (33%?!?!): Hillary Clinton 81%, Bernie Sanders 19%
Young voters (18%): Bernie Sanders 80%, Hillary Clinton 20%
Others (49%): Bernie Sanders 60%, Hillary Clinton 40%

Final result: Hillary Clinton 49.93%, Bernie Sanders 50.07%

Because of the growing influence of young voters (see also: NH-PRES 2012), Sanders might, just might eke out a razor-thin victory despite losing the angry womens vote by 62 points (which is still better than how Scott Brown did in 2014!).
 
TL;DR:
If Sanders gets less than 17% of the angry womens vote (which is definitely possible), there is no realistic way he can win New Hampshire. And he better hope that they don't comprise more than 33% of the electorate, otherwise he's toast.

What is the difference between normal & angry women? How do you find them?

Angry women are the ones who have ever voted for female candidates. Obviously, a woman supporting a female candidate is blatantly sexist.

[DS0816]

Hillary 53%
Bernie 46%

This is what I thought to predict. But, a few days ago, some poll had Bernie leading Hillary by +16. I’ll go with:

• Hillary Clinton 44%
• Bernie Sanders 55%

[Boston Bread]

59 Sanders
41 Clinton

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SANDERS 53
Clinton 47

[jimrtex]

Sanders 57
Clinton 43

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sanders 61
Clinton 36

[Higgs]

Bernie: 54%
Hilldawg: 46%

[Torie]

Sanders 57
Clinton 43

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Sanders 59
Clinton 40