Revised Iowa Democratic Caucus Results

[The Other Castro]

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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/07/iowa-dems-fix-errors-caucus-results-say-clinton-still-winner/79967552/

[Maxwell]

It... kinda just looks like the results that came out before.

[Shadows]

This thing will get over next month when O Malley's people vote. It is 22-21 now & O Malley's people could make it 22-22 & give Sanders the edge in % voting points giving him the victory

[The Other Castro]

It... kinda just looks like the results that came out before.

It could be important in determining who gets the 44th delegate, though I think Erc's help is need in determining that.

[jimrtex]

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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/07/iowa-dems-fix-errors-caucus-results-say-clinton-still-winner/79967552/

The "state delegate equivalents" is based on the assumption that a county convention can elect fractional delegates. But that is an erroneous assumption.

If a county convention had 40 delegates, 30 for Clinton, 10 for Sanders, and elected 3 state delegates. The IDP would calculate 30/40*3 = 2.25 Clinton, 10/40*3 = 0.75 for Sanders, when actually it will be 2 for Clinton and 1 for Sanders.

There are 99 counties in Iowa, and each of them can have a similar truncation error. Assuming uniform distribution of fractions, the average error will be 0.25 delegates. But since one candidate will gain 0.25 delegates, and the other will lose 0.25 delegates, it will on average mean a shift of 0.50 delegates.

Each county will essentially be random, so it is quite unlikely that a candidate would get a lucky break in every one (it is like flipping a coin, except that the coin has already been flipped, and we just have to look at the coin). So Sanders nor Clinton will gain 50 delegates.

But is plausible that Sanders could get 56 of 99 coin flips and tie it up.

And this is ignoring the O'Malley and uncommitted delegates. It is unlikely that he will have any state delegates. The calculation ignored (1) that he probably won't meet the 15% threshold, and (2) that he has withdrawn.

Some of his delegates could be the results of deals made at precinct caucuses. Say that a caucus was about to send a 5:3:? delegation to the county convention, with O'Malley group just short of viability. If the O'Malley group collapses, it will end up 6:3.  It would make sense for a Sanders supporter to join the O'Malley group, and make a deal - "If O'Malley is not viable at the county convention, the delegate will support Sanders".

The national delegates are chosen by congressional district: 8,8,8,6, with the remaining 14 at large. So a 22:22 split is quite possible. If one CD tilts one way, one or more have to tilt the other way.

[Ebsy]

By the time any of this matters, Clinton will have almost certainly clinched the nomination.

[Mehmentum]

This thing will get over next month when O Malley's people vote. It is 22-21 now & O Malley's people could make it 22-22 & give Sanders the edge in % voting points giving him the victory

It won't matter in a month.  The extra delegate that Sanders would get from going over 50% is mostly meaningless.  Being declared the technical winner sometime in March isn't going to affect the race at that point.

[This account no longer in use.]

Exactly. By Super Tuesday, the nomination will be clinched in Queen Hillary the Inevitable's favor.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Exactly. By Super Tuesday, the nomination will be clinched in Queen Hillary the Inevitable's favor.

Not literally, you need like 2700 delegates for that. But for all intents and purposes, yes, unless Sanders wins 5+ states.

[Erc]

Only real change is in Marion County, which was 50-48-2 in favor of Clinton, but is now 49-49-2.  What had been a coin flip at best for Sanders is now winnable if he gets O'Malley on his side, or a coin flip if they split.

[DS0816]

I don't trust the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus.

If someone want to color a Hillary Clinton-vs.-Bernie Sanders primaries map, split Iowa equally between them.

Generally … I don't buy into what those numbers apparently were (or the asinine methods with how some of the so-called voting manifests).

This "First in the Nation" bullsh**t keeps getting up propped up because both political parties don't want to have a learn a new method in approaching the process of competing in the primaries.

[Erc]

I don't trust the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus.

If someone want to color a Hillary Clinton-vs.-Bernie Sanders primaries map, split Iowa equally between them.

Generally … I don't buy into what those numbers apparently were (or the asinine methods with how some of the so-called voting manifests).

This "First in the Nation" bullsh**t keeps getting up propped up because both political parties don't want to have a learn a new method in approaching the process of competing in the primaries.

Hillary narrowly, but certainly, won a plurality in the Iowa caucus in the sense in which it is normally reported.  This is what the >40% color is for on Atlas.

[jimrtex]

Only real change is in Marion County, which was 50-48-2 in favor of Clinton, but is now 49-49-2.  What had been a coin flip at best for Sanders is now winnable if he gets O'Malley on his side, or a coin flip if they split.

Marion elects 13 state delegates, so it is being reported as (13/100)*N state party equivalents:

Clinton 6.370, Sanders 6.370, and O'Malley 0.26.

But it will actually be 7:6 or perhaps 6:6:1.

[Joe Republic]

By the time any of this matters, Clinton will have almost certainly clinched the nomination.

^^^

I remember in 2008 the bickering after Florida and Michigan held their primaries earlier than the DNC would allow, and thus lost all of their delegates.  Those two states whined that that was too unfair, so they were then allowed half the number they were entitled.  This was all a pretty significant discussion when the race between Obama and Clinton was still tied well into the spring, and half a slate of delegates from two large states could have made all the difference.  But of course by the time of the convention when the fight was all over, everybody was like "f[Inks] it" and the DNC gave both states their full slates back again, thus rendering the entire argument a complete waste of time.

[Erc]

Only real change is in Marion County, which was 50-48-2 in favor of Clinton, but is now 49-49-2.  What had been a coin flip at best for Sanders is now winnable if he gets O'Malley on his side, or a coin flip if they split.

Marion elects 13 state delegates, so it is being reported as (13/100)*N state party equivalents:

Clinton 6.370, Sanders 6.370, and O'Malley 0.26.

But it will actually be 7:6 or perhaps 6:6:1.

Yep, had been eliding over the fact that the battle there is for the 13th state delegate.  There are 100 delegates at the Marion County Convention.

[jimrtex]

Only real change is in Marion County, which was 50-48-2 in favor of Clinton, but is now 49-49-2.  What had been a coin flip at best for Sanders is now winnable if he gets O'Malley on his side, or a coin flip if they split.

Marion elects 13 state delegates, so it is being reported as (13/100)*N state party equivalents:

Clinton 6.370, Sanders 6.370, and O'Malley 0.26.

But it will actually be 7:6 or perhaps 6:6:1.

Yep, had been eliding over the fact that the battle there is for the 13th state delegate.  There are 100 delegates at the Marion County Convention.

Have you calculated the state convention delegations by county?

[Erc]

Only real change is in Marion County, which was 50-48-2 in favor of Clinton, but is now 49-49-2.  What had been a coin flip at best for Sanders is now winnable if he gets O'Malley on his side, or a coin flip if they split.

Marion elects 13 state delegates, so it is being reported as (13/100)*N state party equivalents:

Clinton 6.370, Sanders 6.370, and O'Malley 0.26.

But it will actually be 7:6 or perhaps 6:6:1.

Yep, had been eliding over the fact that the battle there is for the 13th state delegate.  There are 100 delegates at the Marion County Convention.

Have you calculated the state convention delegations by county?

Yes.  If there's interest I can upload it to Google Docs, but there's a summary in my megathread.

The net result so far is Clinton 699 - Sanders 690 - Undecided 17

Where the Undecided delegates will depend on O'Malley/Uncommitted delegates at the county level, or coin flips.  This of course depends on everyone showing up, Sanders not trying some weird ambush tactics in smaller counties, etc.