Which Super Tuesday states will Sanders win?
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  Which Super Tuesday states will Sanders win?
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Poll
Question: Huh
#1
Alabama
 
#2
Arkansas
 
#3
Colorado
 
#4
Georgia
 
#5
Massachusetts
 
#6
Minnesota
 
#7
Oklahoma
 
#8
Tennessee
 
#9
Texas
 
#10
Vermont
 
#11
Virginia
 
#12
I was going to troll vote all of them.
 
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Author Topic: Which Super Tuesday states will Sanders win?  (Read 5352 times)
Flake
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« Reply #25 on: February 07, 2016, 11:05:04 PM »

Vermont, Minnesota, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Virginia.
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Xing
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« Reply #26 on: February 07, 2016, 11:07:48 PM »

-Definitely Vermont
-Probably Minnesota
-Maybe Colorado and Massachusetts

In order to win any others, he'll either need a Clinton scandal, or an enormous burst of momentum (winning NH in a landslide, pulling off an upset in NV, and doing much better than expected in SC.)
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #27 on: February 07, 2016, 11:12:27 PM »

If I were Sanders, I would put all my best staff in Arkansas. Everyone's going to say that's crazy but everyone said it was crazy for George Bush to campaign in Tennessee in 2000. Has anyone even polled Hillary's popularity in Arkansas recently? We are just assuming she is massively popular because she was first lady 25 years ago?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #28 on: February 07, 2016, 11:15:57 PM »

If I were Sanders, I would put all my best staff in Arkansas. Everyone's going to say that's crazy but everyone said it was crazy for George Bush to campaign in Tennessee in 2000. Has anyone even polled Hillary's popularity in Arkansas recently? We are just assuming she is massively popular because she was first lady 25 years ago?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228565.0

We know that she's not popular with Arkansas as a whole, and she'll obviously lose the state by a lot in the general, but the Democrats there are still majority white, older, and conservative leaning, not good for Sanders.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #29 on: February 07, 2016, 11:17:40 PM »

He'll definitely win Vermont. I'd say there's a 90% chance of him winning Minnesota. Probably 66.67% chance in Colorado. Maybe a 40% chance in Massachusetts. Not sure about Oklahoma. They don't seem too fond of establishment Dems, by Sanders may be too far to the left. Webb might've been a good fit here.

Alabama and Georgia are probably too black. If you think Sanders can beat Clinton in Arkansas, I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. Virginia is too establishment. Not sure about Texas. Supposedly Sanders has been doing decently with Hispanics, but I'll believe that when I see it.
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« Reply #30 on: February 07, 2016, 11:20:58 PM »

Massachusetts, Minnesota, Colorado, Oklahoma, Virginia and Vermont 100% certainty if it's possible to be that certain
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #31 on: February 07, 2016, 11:25:49 PM »

If I were Sanders, I would put all my best staff in Arkansas. Everyone's going to say that's crazy but everyone said it was crazy for George Bush to campaign in Tennessee in 2000. Has anyone even polled Hillary's popularity in Arkansas recently? We are just assuming she is massively popular because she was first lady 25 years ago?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228565.0

We know that she's not popular with Arkansas as a whole, and she'll obviously lose the state by a lot in the general, but the Democrats there are still majority white, older, and conservative leaning, not good for Sanders.

I thought Dems being White was GOOD for Sanders? Anyway, I don't think he will win it. I think he will come much closer to winning it than Hillary comes to winning Vermont but I don't think he'll win it. He's probably not trying. If I were him though, I would try. It's a gamble but the payoff would be psychologically devastating for Clinton.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #32 on: February 07, 2016, 11:29:52 PM »

If I were Sanders, I would put all my best staff in Arkansas. Everyone's going to say that's crazy but everyone said it was crazy for George Bush to campaign in Tennessee in 2000. Has anyone even polled Hillary's popularity in Arkansas recently? We are just assuming she is massively popular because she was first lady 25 years ago?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228565.0

We know that she's not popular with Arkansas as a whole, and she'll obviously lose the state by a lot in the general, but the Democrats there are still majority white, older, and conservative leaning, not good for Sanders.

I thought Dems being White was GOOD for Sanders? Anyway, I don't think he will win it. I think he will come much closer to winning it than Hillary comes to winning Vermont but I don't think he'll win it. He's probably not trying. If I were him though, I would try. It's a gamble but the payoff would be psychologically devastating for Clinton.

Well, it is. I guess I didn't think about that Tongue But the white folks here are not your white liberals you find in the upper Midwest, Northeast, and the West Coast. There are A LOT of people here that voted Clinton in the primary only to vote McCain in the general in 2008. There's still a lot of these DINOs that participate in Democratic primaries, and they will definitely not be friendly to him. But no doubt he'll do better in Arkansas than in places like Georgia and South Carolina (with majority black electorates).
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defe07
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« Reply #33 on: February 07, 2016, 11:36:53 PM »

I think Bernie will win VT, CO and MN. If Bernie is able to be able to keep NV competitive or even win it, I think he has a shot at MA and VA and TN. A good scenario for Bernie would be to win VT, CO and MN big and compete in TN, MA and VA. If he's able to flip either one of the last 3, he could call it a good night. TX might be competitive if he's able to win NV but it's more likely for Bernie to win either TN,MA or VA before TX.
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« Reply #34 on: February 07, 2016, 11:37:03 PM »

and while I don't think he'll win Arkansas, I definitely think Bernie could win New York, if it wasn't so damn late in the game. Hillary is lucky it's so late.
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defe07
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« Reply #35 on: February 07, 2016, 11:39:07 PM »

and while I don't think he'll win Arkansas, I definitely think Bernie could win New York, if it wasn't so damn late in the game. Hillary is lucky it's so late.

Do you think Bernie can win any of the Southern Super Tuesday states? I think if he can overperform in SC, anything's possible! Tongue
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« Reply #36 on: February 07, 2016, 11:46:33 PM »

I think if he won SC, it would basically be over but I think the chances of that happening are slim at the moment.

It might change based on media coverage after he wins New Hampshire though. I legitimately don't know. His numbers went up after his horrible debate performance, and after he lost Iowa. They may very well skyrocket after he actually does something good and wins a real race.

Still, Clinton is heavily favored in South Carolina.

Alabama and Mississippi are a slim possibility if there's low minority turn out and high student turn out. If a random truck driver can win the governor nomination, I see no reason a sitting Senator couldn't win the presidential primary.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #37 on: February 07, 2016, 11:53:46 PM »

Sanders will of course win Vermont for certain and I'd say his chances of winning Minnesota are above 50%.  Colorado I'd guess is 50/50.  Mass. is unlikely but possible.  As for the southern states, lol no. 

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defe07
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« Reply #38 on: February 08, 2016, 12:19:39 AM »

I think if he won SC, it would basically be over but I think the chances of that happening are slim at the moment.

It might change based on media coverage after he wins New Hampshire though. I legitimately don't know. His numbers went up after his horrible debate performance, and after he lost Iowa. They may very well skyrocket after he actually does something good and wins a real race.

Still, Clinton is heavily favored in South Carolina.

Alabama and Mississippi are a slim possibility if there's low minority turn out and high student turn out. If a random truck driver can win the governor nomination, I see no reason a sitting Senator couldn't win the presidential primary.

NV could be a wild card. Imagine if Bernie is able to win it. I'm sure that would help him flip some states on ST.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #39 on: February 08, 2016, 12:49:20 AM »

-Definitely Vermont
-Probably Minnesota
-Maybe Colorado and Massachusetts

In order to win any others, he'll either need a Clinton scandal, or an enormous burst of momentum (winning NH in a landslide, pulling off an upset in NV, and doing much better than expected in SC.)

Pretty much this exactly. Vermont will vote for Sanders even if he's dropped out (see Dean 2004), Minnesota looks pretty favorable to him, but it will almost definitely be a single-digit win either way. Colorado and Massachusetts are theoretically good for Sanders, but he'll have to pull up his poll numbers there before I would give him a better than 50-50 chance in either.
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« Reply #40 on: February 08, 2016, 01:14:06 AM »

-Definitely Vermont
-Probably Minnesota
-Maybe Colorado and Massachusetts

In order to win any others, he'll either need a Clinton scandal, or an enormous burst of momentum (winning NH in a landslide, pulling off an upset in NV, and doing much better than expected in SC.)

Pretty much this exactly. Vermont will vote for Sanders even if he's dropped out (see Dean 2004), Minnesota looks pretty favorable to him, but it will almost definitely be a single-digit win either way. Colorado and Massachusetts are theoretically good for Sanders, but he'll have to pull up his poll numbers there before I would give him a better than 50-50 chance in either.

Obama beat Hillary 66% to 33% in the 2008 Minnesota caucuses. It's not going to be a single digit win. Minnesota is going to go overwhelmingly for Sanders. Sanders is like the ideal Minnesota candidate, left-wing but with a pseudo-independent populist streak.
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« Reply #41 on: February 08, 2016, 01:37:10 AM »

The more I think about it, the more Alabama could be in play. Let us not forget the 2010 gubernatorial primary, where the conservative African American candidate was defeated by the liberal White candidate, with significant African American support.
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Holmes
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« Reply #42 on: February 08, 2016, 01:38:27 AM »

This.

The more I think about it, the more Alabama could be in play.

You don't understand why African-Americans don't support Sanders.
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cxs018
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« Reply #43 on: February 08, 2016, 01:46:26 AM »

Here are my ratings:

Vermont - Safe Sanders
Colorado - Likely Sanders
Minnesota - Lean Sanders
Massachusetts - Toss-up
Tennessee - Lean Clinton
Oklahoma - Lean Clinton
Virginia - Lean Clinton (originally Safe Clinton, changed my viewpoint after reading this topic)
Arkansas - Likely Clinton
Texas - Safe Clinton
Alabama - Safe Clinton
Georgia - Safe Clinton
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Holmes
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« Reply #44 on: February 08, 2016, 01:49:05 AM »

Colorado - Likely Sanders
Minnesota - Lean Sanders

I'd switch these two around. Minnesota is an open caucus, Colorado is closed, and while it is Colorado and all that, with no Indies to help Sanders, he'll have a much harder time winning there compared to Minnesota, and the state has more non-white voters(/caucus goers). Nevada will be a good predictor of how Colorado will go.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #45 on: February 08, 2016, 01:54:20 AM »

This.

The more I think about it, the more Alabama could be in play.

You don't understand why African-Americans don't support Sanders.

It's name recognition, which he will have a ton of after winning NH.
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Holmes
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« Reply #46 on: February 08, 2016, 02:03:43 AM »

This.

The more I think about it, the more Alabama could be in play.

You don't understand why African-Americans don't support Sanders.

It's name recognition, which he will have a ton of after winning NH.

Um. No. Who doesn't know Sanders anymore? In a nutshell, it's the fact that Clinton has been involved in these communities for decades, is a known Obama ally from her time in his cabinet, and the fact that she is running as Obama's third term and constantly praises him for the progress he's made and is promising to expand on that, instead of talking about a revolution. Because if there's a black president, and some old white guy says we need to change things with a revolution, African-Americans will take that to mean only one thing.
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WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #47 on: February 08, 2016, 02:10:11 AM »

This.

The more I think about it, the more Alabama could be in play.

You don't understand why African-Americans don't support Sanders.

It's name recognition, which he will have a ton of after winning NH.

Um. No. Who doesn't know Sanders anymore? In a nutshell, it's the fact that Clinton has been involved in these communities for decades, is a known Obama ally from her time in his cabinet, and the fact that she is running as Obama's third term and constantly praises him for the progress he's made and is promising to expand on that, instead of talking about a revolution. Because if there's a black president, and some old white guy says we need to change things with a revolution, African-Americans will take that to mean only one thing.

Hahahahahahahahahah wow, you think Black voters are really damn stupid.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #48 on: February 08, 2016, 02:39:26 AM »

Two African-American writers, Jonathan Capehart at the Washington Post and Eric Frazier at the Charlotte Observer, offer their opinions on why Sanders is struggling with black voters:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2016/02/03/no-bernie-sanders-is-not-barack-obama/

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/o-pinion/article58402848.html

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Holmes
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« Reply #49 on: February 08, 2016, 02:57:03 AM »

This.

The more I think about it, the more Alabama could be in play.

You don't understand why African-Americans don't support Sanders.

It's name recognition, which he will have a ton of after winning NH.

Um. No. Who doesn't know Sanders anymore? In a nutshell, it's the fact that Clinton has been involved in these communities for decades, is a known Obama ally from her time in his cabinet, and the fact that she is running as Obama's third term and constantly praises him for the progress he's made and is promising to expand on that, instead of talking about a revolution. Because if there's a black president, and some old white guy says we need to change things with a revolution, African-Americans will take that to mean only one thing.

Hahahahahahahahahah wow, you think Black voters are really damn stupid.

If you have no argument then spare the site's bandwidth and don't post.
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