Which Super Tuesday states will Sanders win?

[Famous Mortimer]

Working for the Bernie campaign in Minnesota cold calling registered Democrats. Based on the reactions I've heard, Bernie is going to beat Clinton 2 to 1 in Minnesota.

[Famous Mortimer]

If I were Sanders, I would put all my best staff in Arkansas. Everyone's going to say that's crazy but everyone said it was crazy for George Bush to campaign in Tennessee in 2000. Has anyone even polled Hillary's popularity in Arkansas recently? We are just assuming she is massively popular because she was first lady 25 years ago?

[Famous Mortimer]

If I were Sanders, I would put all my best staff in Arkansas. Everyone's going to say that's crazy but everyone said it was crazy for George Bush to campaign in Tennessee in 2000. Has anyone even polled Hillary's popularity in Arkansas recently? We are just assuming she is massively popular because she was first lady 25 years ago?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228565.0

We know that she's not popular with Arkansas as a whole, and she'll obviously lose the state by a lot in the general, but the Democrats there are still majority white, older, and conservative leaning, not good for Sanders.

I thought Dems being White was GOOD for Sanders? Anyway, I don't think he will win it. I think he will come much closer to winning it than Hillary comes to winning Vermont but I don't think he'll win it. He's probably not trying. If I were him though, I would try. It's a gamble but the payoff would be psychologically devastating for Clinton.

[Famous Mortimer]

and while I don't think he'll win Arkansas, I definitely think Bernie could win New York, if it wasn't so damn late in the game. Hillary is lucky it's so late.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think if he won SC, it would basically be over but I think the chances of that happening are slim at the moment.

It might change based on media coverage after he wins New Hampshire though. I legitimately don't know. His numbers went up after his horrible debate performance, and after he lost Iowa. They may very well skyrocket after he actually does something good and wins a real race.

Still, Clinton is heavily favored in South Carolina.

Alabama and Mississippi are a slim possibility if there's low minority turn out and high student turn out. If a random truck driver can win the governor nomination, I see no reason a sitting Senator couldn't win the presidential primary.

[Famous Mortimer]

-Definitely Vermont
-Probably Minnesota
-Maybe Colorado and Massachusetts

In order to win any others, he'll either need a Clinton scandal, or an enormous burst of momentum (winning NH in a landslide, pulling off an upset in NV, and doing much better than expected in SC.)

Pretty much this exactly. Vermont will vote for Sanders even if he's dropped out (see Dean 2004), Minnesota looks pretty favorable to him, but it will almost definitely be a single-digit win either way. Colorado and Massachusetts are theoretically good for Sanders, but he'll have to pull up his poll numbers there before I would give him a better than 50-50 chance in either.

Obama beat Hillary 66% to 33% in the 2008 Minnesota caucuses. It's not going to be a single digit win. Minnesota is going to go overwhelmingly for Sanders. Sanders is like the ideal Minnesota candidate, left-wing but with a pseudo-independent populist streak.

[Famous Mortimer]

The more I think about it, the more Alabama could be in play. Let us not forget the 2010 gubernatorial primary, where the conservative African American candidate was defeated by the liberal White candidate, with significant African American support.

[Famous Mortimer]

Vermont and MAYBE Minnesota.

This.

The more I think about it, the more Alabama could be in play.

You don't understand why African-Americans don't support Sanders.

It's name recognition, which he will have a ton of after winning NH.

[Famous Mortimer]

Vermont and MAYBE Minnesota.

This.

The more I think about it, the more Alabama could be in play.

You don't understand why African-Americans don't support Sanders.

It's name recognition, which he will have a ton of after winning NH.

Um. No. Who doesn't know Sanders anymore? In a nutshell, it's the fact that Clinton has been involved in these communities for decades, is a known Obama ally from her time in his cabinet, and the fact that she is running as Obama's third term and constantly praises him for the progress he's made and is promising to expand on that, instead of talking about a revolution. Because if there's a black president, and some old white guy says we need to change things with a revolution, African-Americans will take that to mean only one thing.

Hahahahahahahahahah wow, you think Black voters are really damn stupid.

[Famous Mortimer]

You're saying Black people think Bernie wants a revolution because Obama is Black.

And you accuse other people of wasting bandwidth.