Why is everybody burying Rubio after a single debate performance?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Remember, he came in a very strong third in Iowa and could very well surprise in New Hampshire.  Do they just not like his conservatism and hope that he crashes and burns or do they really think he is toast after a single debate?

[Mike Thick]

Personally, I don't think he's dead yet. But that gaffe is probably one of the worst I've ever seen. It was timed horribly, and although we won't know until Tuesday I think it's probably axed his momentum, and whatever chances he had of winning NH.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

It happened to Perry....so.....

[Joe Biden 2020]

Personally, I don't think he's dead yet. But that gaffe is probably one of the worst I've ever seen. It was timed horribly, and although we won't know until Tuesday I think it's probably axed his momentum, and whatever chances he had of winning NH.

To be fair, he never really had any chance of winning New Hampshire even after his strong showing in Iowa and before that gaffe.  He was always looking at second or third at best.  As some of the pundits have been saying there may be as many as 4 tickets out of New Hampshire and as long as he secures one of those spots, he should have plenty of momentum heading into South Carolina and Nevada and at least Super Tuesday.  I personally still think he stays in all the way through March 15.

[Joe Biden 2020]

It happened to Perry....so.....

Yeah, but Perry was a joke candidate to begin with.  Rubio has always been a serious contender.

[Lief 🗽]

It happened to Perry....so.....

Yeah, but Perry was a joke candidate to begin with.  Rubio has always been a serious contender.

Uh, what? No. Rick Perry was ahead of Mitt Romney in national polls after he announced his campaign. He was supposed to be Romney's main conservative challenger.

[Mike Thick]

Personally, I don't think he's dead yet. But that gaffe is probably one of the worst I've ever seen. It was timed horribly, and although we won't know until Tuesday I think it's probably axed his momentum, and whatever chances he had of winning NH.

To be fair, he never really had any chance of winning New Hampshire even after his strong showing in Iowa and before that gaffe.  He was always looking at second or third at best.  As some of the pundits have been saying there may be as many as 4 tickets out of New Hampshire and as long as he secures one of those spots, he should have plenty of momentum heading into South Carolina and Nevada and at least Super Tuesday.  I personally still think he stays in all the way through March 15.

I'd say he had a small chance of an upset, given that he had momentum and there's a high probability that Trump is overpolling. He was looking at a decently strong second, at worst. Now there's a chance he ends up getting lumped in with the rest of the establishment folks.

If he finishes second or third, he'll be fine as long as he separates rom the pack and he'll have momentum because of consolidating their support. However, if the scenario I described above happens, all bets are off.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Atlas.

[/]

Atlas.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Polls:

[Joe Biden 2020]

Atlas.

Figures

[they don't love you like i love you]

Why is everybody burying Rick Perry after a single debate performance?

[Maxwell]

Because this debate is so crucial - because it is the place where Rubio had to prove he was the definitive establishment candidate.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Because this debate is so crucial - because it is the place where Rubio had to prove he was the definitive establishment candidate.

Atlas is not the judge of that, though, and neither is the MSM.  The voters on Tuesday will be the judge whether he failed at his job.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yea, it has everything to do with victimizing poor, innocent conservatives and nothing to do with his inability to gain traction as the challenger to Trump and his god-awful debate performance where he seemed like a petulant child.

Brilliant analysis, as always.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Because he is a Republican Obama that Hillary will tear limb from limb.

It happened to Perry....so.....

Yeah, but Perry was a joke candidate to begin with.  Rubio has always been a serious contender.

No, Rick Perry was going to unite the Teavangelist wing of the GOP, both the social conservatives and the tea party conservatives ala Ted Cruz, pool all the open borders donor money from people like thE Koch brothers and big oil (as well as that portion of the Wall Street money that had backed Rudy and refused to support Mittens), basically a nice package that would pose a formidable threat to Mittens. Romney was preparing for a long draw out fight, using immigration and Perry's social security comments to undermine him. It turned out he didn't have to because Perry destroyed himself, allowing for Herman Cain to surge and then after him, New Gingrich.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Yea, it has everything to do with victimizing poor, innocent conservatives and nothing to do with his inability to gain traction as the challenger to Trump and his god-awful debate performance where he seemed like a petulant child.

Brilliant analysis, as always.

I was joking...

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Please stay away from Donald Trump during this primary. Every single person you touch crashes and burns. That's why Rubio is dead.

Ted Cruz is a good Christian man. Pick him.

[Kingpoleon]

Christie crushed him. Unfortunately, Kasich sounded more appealing to NH.

[Maxwell]

Because this debate is so crucial - because it is the place where Rubio had to prove he was the definitive establishment candidate.

Atlas is not the judge of that, though, and neither is the MSM.  The voters on Tuesday will be the judge whether he failed at his job.

Most of us are going to be voting in this election at some point, and we are invested in the outcome of this election. Of course we get to judge.

[Penelope]

Rubio's Perceived Strengths
1. Youth
2. Charisma
3. Ability to relate to youngs and maybe even some hispanics.

Rubio's Suspected Weaknesses
1. Empty Suit
2. Amateur Hour

The "let's dispell with this notion" gaffe manages to both play against Rubio's perceived strengths, and validate Rubio's suspected weaknesses in the minds of voters - and more importantly, donors.

[Mehmentum]

1.) This happened at the worst possible time. New Hampshire was supposed to be Rubio's breakout moment.  If it doesn't happen here, he's not going to get it until after Super Tuesday.  

And it happened right before the New Hampshire primary.  This horrible, disastrous debate performance will be the narrative on election day.  This is what all of the undecided voters and weak Rubio supporters are going to hear about Rubio.  There's no time for another news cycle, there's no time for redemption or damage control.

2.) Rubio's support is soft. The good news cycle after getting in third in Iowa lifter Rubio's polling in NH from 9-10% to about 16%.  Those new converts aren't going to stick around when the cycle turns against him.  10% of the vote isn't going to get Rubio 2nd place, or even 3rd place most likely.  

This assumes none of Rubio's more solid supporters don't get second thoughts for one of the establishment candidates (or even Cruz).  Rubio isn't like Trump, he doesn't have that many die hard fans.

3.) Rubio has opponents nipping at his heels.  There are three candidates who are just itching to snatch up his voters and potential voters.  Even worse, if even one of these people finishes ahead of him, Rubio's path to the nomination becomes that much harder.  Not only will he have to deal with the electoral calendar being stacked against him for the next month, he's going to be in the fight of his political life against another establishment candidate.  This is all while Cruz and/or Trump rack up win after win.

This is ignoring the fact that Rubio's debate performance wasn't just poor, but without a doubt the greatest meltdown of this cycle.  I don't feel like arguing about that particular point anymore.  Suffice it to say that this doesn't need to be an 'Oops' level blunder to ruin Rubio's chances.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I will say that I never expected Rubio to win the nomination, even though I will be voting for him on Super Tuesday should he make it this far.  It will either be Trump or Cruz, IMO.  The strong third place showing in Iowa did not change that for me other than he is not going to bow out anytime soon.  I believe he can recover from the debate gaffe and we'll have to see how well New Hampshire forgives him.  The thing with the American electorate, by and large we have very short attention spans and very short memories.  I think if he can survive New Hampshire, this gaffe won't even be on the minds of South Carolina or Nevada voters unless he compounds his error in judgment with another gaffe.  He really has to watch himself at the next debate, but if he can get at least a respectable third place showing out of New Hampshire, I think he'll be in good shape through at least Super Tuesday and this gaffe will largely be forgotten in the media and the minds of the electorate.

[Lief 🗽]

It happened to Perry....so.....

The funny thing is Rubio and Perry's platforms are pretty much identical.

Also, they're both closeted gay men. A lot of similarities.

[Lief 🗽]

Bushie, how do you reconcile your support of a gay morman with your fundamentalist Christian faith?