Likelihood to win the nomination

[ElectionsGuy]

Democrats

Clinton: 99%
Other: <1%

Republicans

Trump: 100% (Presumptive nominee)

[Maxwell]

75% Trump
15% Cruz
5% Christie
5% Field
0% Bush

Standing by my prediction that Jeb Bush will not be the nominee. I'm this close to moving Rubio in the absolutely will not be the nominee category as well.

Republican Nomination: Likely TRUMP

98% Clinton
1% Sanders
0.5% Field
0.5% WTF JOE BIDEN NOMINATED BY ACCLAMATION

Bernie Sanders will probably win New Hampshire, potentially by a lot, but Nevada and South Carolina are a problem for him, and Super Tuesday will be even worse for him. The map is just not built for him.

[Orser67]

Trump 35
Cruz 25
Rubio 20
Bush/Kasich/Christie 15
Field 5

Clinton 90
Sanders 9
Field 1

[The Other Castro]

40% Trump
21% Rubio
20% Cruz
7% Kasich
6% Bush
5% Christie
1% Romney

Rating: Toss-Up/Tilt Trump

70% Clinton
30% Sanders

Rating: Lean Clinton

[100% pro-life no matter what]

50% Rubio
35% Cruz
10% Bush
3% Trump
2% Other

The Trump clowns are amusing

95% Clinton
2.5% Sanders
2.5% Other

[Ronnie]

Edit: Modified after NH primary

50% Trump
25% Cruz
15% Rubio
10% Bush

Dems:

85% Clinton
15% Sanders

[Panhandle Progressive]

75% Trump
15% Cruz
5% Christie
5% Field
0% Bush

Standing by my prediction that Jeb Bush will not be the nominee. I'm this close to moving Rubio in the absolutely will not be the nominee category as well.

Republican Nomination: Likely TRUMP

98% Clinton
1% Sanders
0.5% Field
0.5% WTF JOE BIDEN NOMINATED BY ACCLAMATION

Bernie Sanders will probably win New Hampshire, potentially by a lot, but Nevada and South Carolina are a problem for him, and Super Tuesday will be even worse for him. The map is just not built for him.

I agree with you on both sides. I'll add that Bernie was heavily frontloaded. So many Bernie fans can't see the bigger, bulkier, and brawnier Hillary train that is headed straight at them.

[mencken]

Deferring to my pre-Iowa calculus:

Just pulling some assumptions out of my rear end:

• Any candidate that wins both Iowa and New Hampshire has a ~90% chance of being the nominee.
• The establishment may eventually gets its act together and rally around its most viable candidate.
  
  • in the event of a Cruz/Trump early state split, odds would be roughly a four-way split between Trump, Cruz, establishment candidate, and some pre-convention deal.
  • In the event of a establishment/Cruz or Trump early state split, odds would be roughly 60-30-10 between Trump or Cruz, establishment candidate, and some pre-convention deal.

That leaves us with roughly:
Trump ~45%
Cruz ~25%
Rubio ~10%
Christie ~10%
Smoke-Filled Room ~5%
Bush ~2%
Kasich ~2%


For the Democrats, I would not be as generous to Bernie should he win both early states; let's say that such an event makes the nomination a 50-40-10 affair between Clinton, Bernie, and a pre-convention deal; splitting the early states gives Clinton a 90% chance, and sweeping the early states gives her a lock. That reduces to:

Clinton ~75%
Sanders ~20%
Smoke-filled Room ~5%

I have significantly lowered Cruz's odds of winning any scenario, along with raising Rubio's odds (given that with his dubious third place finish in Iowa he can duel with any of the Bush/Christie/Kasich trifecta for the establishment mantle if any of them place in New Hampshire.) That leaves me with roughly this:

Rubio ~30%
Cruz ~25%
Trump ~20%
Smoke-Filled Room 15%
Kasich ~5%
Bush ~3%
Christie ~2%

Democratic odds remain unaffected since the Iowa outcome was essentially Schrodinger's election.

[Maxwell]

50% Rubio
35% Cruz
10% Bush
3% Trump
2% Other

The Trump clowns are amusing

95% Clinton
2.5% Sanders
2.5% Other

>has Bush at 10% and Rubio at 50%
>calling other people clowns

c'mon dude you don't really think Rubio has a 50% chance of taking the nomination.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dem:

80% Hillary
20% Bernie


GOP:

35% Trump
30% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
7% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

[Lief 🗽]

Too early to downgrade Rubio, folks. If he somehow gets 2nd place in NH, then he's back in the driver's seat. I'd say wait to see some polls, but (1) how many more polls are we going to get before Tuesday and (2) how good is a poll done partially during Super Bowl Sunday?

[Xing]

REP: Toss-up/Tilt Trump
Trump 35%
Cruz 30%
Rubio 18%
Kasich 10%
Christie 5%
Bush 2%

DEM: Likely Clinton
Clinton 80%
Sanders 20%

[Sir Mohamed]

Hillary: 92%
Bernie: 8%


Rubio: 50%
The Trumpster: 30%
Cruz: 10%
Kasich: 7%
Anyone else: 3%

[IceSpear]

Trump 50%
Cruz 35%
Rubio 15%

Clinton 99%
Sanders 1%

[Ogre Mage]

No clue about the Republican side.

Clinton 95%
Sanders 5%

[PresidentTRUMP]

Republican side is wayyyyy to early to have ANY idea, but for what its worth:

Trump: 40%
Rubio: 35%
Cruz: 24%
Bush: 1%

Dem:

Clinton: 75%
Sanders: 24%
Biden: 1%

[EliteLX]

As Lief said, those of you attempting to put Rubes at 0% because of a repeat line in the most unwatched debate of the season is somewhat silly. If he rides momentum to second place again and surprises the media claiming he's dead, it's still game on completely. NH polling right now is also even more speculative than IA a couple days before.

Realistic chances:
Trump: 55%
Rubio: 27%
Ted: 11%
Jeb: 5%
Field: 2%

[President Johnson]

TRUMP: 70%
Rubio: 10%
Cruz: 8%
Kasich: 8%
one of the other guys: 4%

HILLARY: 95%
Bernie: 5%

[Niemeyerite]

Hillary 93%
Bernie 7%

Trump 55%
Cruz 15%
Kasich 10%
Rubio 8%
Bush 6%
Christie 6%

[ElectionsGuy]

Revising:

Trump - 70%
Cruz - 20%
Rubio - 5%
The rest - 5%

Still 80-20 Clinton on the Democratic side.

[IceSpear]

Trump 50%
Cruz 35%
Rubio 15%

Clinton 99%
Sanders 1%

After NH...

Trump 60%
Cruz 35%
Others 5%

[This account no longer in use.]

Rubio 65%
Kasich 25%
Bush 10%

Sanders 100%

And now we wait...

[madelka]

Clinton 99.5%
Sanders 0.3%
Other 0.2%

Trump 40%
Cruz 15%
Rubio 15%
Kasich 15%
Bush 15%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dem:

80% Hillary
20% Bernie


GOP:

35% Trump
30% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
7% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

75% Hillary
25% Bernie


GOP:

55% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Clinton 83
Sanders 17

Trump 37
Cruz 26
Kasich 15
Bush 12
Rubio 7
Carson 3
Gilmore 0