Likelihood to win the nomination
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 07:42:53 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Likelihood to win the nomination		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6
Author Topic: Likelihood to win the nomination  (Read 12777 times)
ScottieF
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 349


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: February 10, 2016, 04:30:26 PM »
Clinton 80%
Sanders 20%

Trump 40%
Cruz 25%
Rubio 20%
Bush 10%
Kasich 4%
Carson 1%
Gilmore 0%
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,600
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: February 10, 2016, 04:36:58 PM »
Clinton: 80% (+0 from my 1/15 odds)
Sanders: 20% (+0)

Trump: 55% (+10)
Cruz: 40% (+10)
Field: 5% (-20)
Logged
mencken
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,222
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: February 10, 2016, 07:43:25 PM »
Quote from: mencken on February 08, 2016, 12:19:04 AM
Deferring to my pre-Iowa calculus:
Quote from: mencken on January 15, 2016, 11:19:02 AM
Just pulling some assumptions out of my rear end:
  • Any candidate that wins both Iowa and New Hampshire has a ~90% chance of being the nominee.
  • The establishment may eventually gets its act together and rally around its most viable candidate.
    • in the event of a Cruz/Trump early state split, odds would be roughly a four-way split between Trump, Cruz, establishment candidate, and some pre-convention deal.
    • In the event of a establishment/Cruz or Trump early state split, odds would be roughly 60-30-10 between Trump or Cruz, establishment candidate, and some pre-convention deal.

That leaves us with roughly:
Trump ~45%
Cruz ~25%
Rubio ~10%
Christie ~10%
Smoke-Filled Room ~5%
Bush ~2%
Kasich ~2%


For the Democrats, I would not be as generous to Bernie should he win both early states; let's say that such an event makes the nomination a 50-40-10 affair between Clinton, Bernie, and a pre-convention deal; splitting the early states gives Clinton a 90% chance, and sweeping the early states gives her a lock. That reduces to:

Clinton ~75%
Sanders ~20%
Smoke-filled Room ~5%


I have significantly lowered Cruz's odds of winning any scenario, along with raising Rubio's odds (given that with his dubious third place finish in Iowa he can duel with any of the Bush/Christie/Kasich trifecta for the establishment mantle if any of them place in New Hampshire.) That leaves me with roughly this:

Rubio ~30%
Cruz ~25%
Trump ~20%
Smoke-Filled Room 15%
Kasich ~5%
Bush ~3%
Christie ~2%

Democratic odds remain unaffected since the Iowa outcome was essentially Schrodinger's election.

Update:
Trump 2:1
Cruz 3:1
Smoke-Filled Room 5:1
Rubio 6:1
Kasich 14:1
Bush 25:1
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,942


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: February 10, 2016, 07:46:34 PM »
Clinton 65
Sanders 35

Cruz 45
TRUMP 40
Rubio 10
Brokered Convention 5
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: February 10, 2016, 09:16:25 PM »
Quote from: xingkerui on February 08, 2016, 01:05:51 AM
REP: Toss-up/Tilt Trump
Trump 35%
Cruz 30%
Rubio 18%
Kasich 10%
Christie 5%
Bush 2%

DEM: Likely Clinton
Clinton 80%
Sanders 20%


Post-NH update:

REP: Lean Trump
Trump 45%
Cruz 30%
Rubio/Bush/Kasich 20%
Other (brokered convention?) 5%

DEM: Likely Clinton
Clinton 75%
Sanders 25%
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,169
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: February 10, 2016, 11:13:29 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 10, 2016, 07:46:34 PM
Clinton 65
Sanders 35

Cruz 45
TRUMP 40
Rubio 10
Brokered Convention 5

Hey, you're actually giving Bernie better and Trump worse odds than I do? Huh
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,916


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: February 10, 2016, 11:19:28 PM »
DEM:
Sanders 50
Clinton 50

REP:
Trump 45
Kasich 15
Rubio 15
Cruz 10
Bush 10
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: February 21, 2016, 02:05:53 PM »
Clinton: 85% (+5)
Sanders: 15% (-5)

Trump: 75% (+5)
Rubio: 15% (+10)
Cruz: 10% (-10)
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: February 21, 2016, 02:06:57 PM »
95% Clinton
5% Sanders

90% Trump
5% Rubio
2% Kasich
1% Cruz
2% Convention
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,764
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: February 21, 2016, 02:08:28 PM »
Hillary 98%
Hillary Dies, Replaced at convention 2%

TRUMP 85%
Rubio 12%
Cruz 3%
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,942


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: February 21, 2016, 02:15:16 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 10, 2016, 07:46:34 PM
Clinton 65
Sanders 35

Cruz 45
TRUMP 40
Rubio 10
Brokered Convention 5

Update following yesterday's failed stumpings on both sides:

Clinton 90
Sanders 5
Other 5

TRUMP 60
Rubio 35
Other 5
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,169
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: February 21, 2016, 02:25:55 PM »
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 10, 2016, 04:16:58 PM
Quote from: Californian Tony Returns on February 08, 2016, 12:39:19 AM
Dem:

80% Hillary
20% Bernie


GOP:

35% Trump
30% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
7% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

75% Hillary
25% Bernie


GOP:

55% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

90% Hillary
10% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
20% Rubio
5% Cruz
5% Someone else
Logged
Former Senator Haslam2020
Haslam2020
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: February 21, 2016, 02:27:47 PM »
Clinton: 90%
Bernie: 10%


Trump: 90%
Rubio: 2%
Kasich: 2%
Cruz: 2%
Convention: 4%
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: February 21, 2016, 02:41:16 PM »
DEM:
Clinton 80%
Sanders 20%

REP:
Rubio 99%
trump 0.9%
"field" 0.1%
Logged
/
darthebearnc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: February 21, 2016, 03:04:38 PM »
Democratic Nomination:

Clinton - 90%
Sanders - 10%



Republican Nomination:

Trump - 40%
Rubio - 40%
Cruz - 10%
Kasich - 10%
Carson - 0%



Chances in General Election (if nominated)Sad

Clinton - 65%
Rubio - 55%
Kasich - 55%
Sanders - 50%
Trump - 20%
Cruz - 10%
Carson - 10%

Chances at Being Next President (Nomination Chances x GE Chances)Sad

Clinton - 58.5%
Rubio - 22%
Trump - 8%
Kasich - 5.5%
Sanders - 5%
Cruz - 1%
Carson - 0%



Party of Next President:

Democrat - 63.5%
Republican - 36.5%
Logged
mencken
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,222
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: February 21, 2016, 03:26:10 PM »
Quote from: mencken on February 10, 2016, 07:43:25 PM
Quote from: mencken on February 08, 2016, 12:19:04 AM
Deferring to my pre-Iowa calculus:
Quote from: mencken on January 15, 2016, 11:19:02 AM
Just pulling some assumptions out of my rear end:
  • Any candidate that wins both Iowa and New Hampshire has a ~90% chance of being the nominee.
  • The establishment may eventually gets its act together and rally around its most viable candidate.
    • in the event of a Cruz/Trump early state split, odds would be roughly a four-way split between Trump, Cruz, establishment candidate, and some pre-convention deal.
    • In the event of a establishment/Cruz or Trump early state split, odds would be roughly 60-30-10 between Trump or Cruz, establishment candidate, and some pre-convention deal.

That leaves us with roughly:
Trump ~45%
Cruz ~25%
Rubio ~10%
Christie ~10%
Smoke-Filled Room ~5%
Bush ~2%
Kasich ~2%


For the Democrats, I would not be as generous to Bernie should he win both early states; let's say that such an event makes the nomination a 50-40-10 affair between Clinton, Bernie, and a pre-convention deal; splitting the early states gives Clinton a 90% chance, and sweeping the early states gives her a lock. That reduces to:

Clinton ~75%
Sanders ~20%
Smoke-filled Room ~5%


I have significantly lowered Cruz's odds of winning any scenario, along with raising Rubio's odds (given that with his dubious third place finish in Iowa he can duel with any of the Bush/Christie/Kasich trifecta for the establishment mantle if any of them place in New Hampshire.) That leaves me with roughly this:

Rubio ~30%
Cruz ~25%
Trump ~20%
Smoke-Filled Room 15%
Kasich ~5%
Bush ~3%
Christie ~2%

Democratic odds remain unaffected since the Iowa outcome was essentially Schrodinger's election.

Update:
Trump 2:1
Cruz 3:1
Smoke-Filled Room 5:1
Rubio 6:1
Kasich 14:1
Bush 25:1

Democrats:
Clinton 1:6
Smoke-Filled Room 9:1
Sanders 19:1

Republicans:
Trump 2.5:1
Rubio 3:1
Smoke-Filled Room 5:1
Cruz 9:1
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: February 21, 2016, 09:00:51 PM »
KING TRUMP 46
Rubio 25
Cruz 20
Kasich 8
Carson 1

Clinton 87
Sanders 13
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: February 21, 2016, 09:21:00 PM »
Rubio 60
Trump 25
Cruz 10
Other 5 (likely Romney or Ryan)

Clinton 98
Sanders 1
Other 1
Logged
ScottieF
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 349


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: February 22, 2016, 01:55:43 AM »
Trump 45
Rubio 30
Cruz 20
Kasich 4
Carson 1

Clinton 80
Sanders 20
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: February 22, 2016, 01:58:26 AM »
Trump 50
Rubio 30
Cruz 19
Kasich 1

Clinton 85
Sanders 15
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: February 24, 2016, 05:28:51 PM »
Post-Nevada

Trump: 80% (+5)
Rubio: 12% (-3)
Cruz: 8% (-2)
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,725


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: February 24, 2016, 05:30:43 PM »
Post Nevada:

Rubio- 55%
Trump- 30%
Ryan/Other- 10%
Cruz- 5%
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: February 24, 2016, 05:36:16 PM »
Post-Nevada

93% Trump
2% Rubio
2% Kasich
1% Cruz
2% WTF BROKERED CONVENTION
Logged
SUSAN CRUSHBONE
evergreen
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,735
Antarctica


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: February 24, 2016, 05:41:25 PM »
at this point
85% clinton
15% sanders

75% trump
15% rubio
5% cruz
5% ?
Logged
dax00
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,422


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: February 24, 2016, 06:47:02 PM »
62 % Clinton
35 % Sanders
3 % Other (Clinton indicted late on)

92.7 % Trump
4.4 % Rubio
0.8 % Cruz
0.2 % Kasich
1.9 % Brokered Convention
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 13 queries.