Likelihood to win the nomination

[The Other Castro]

45% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Rubio
15% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick (Romney)

Rating: Toss-Up

88% Clinton
12% Sanders

Rating: Likely Clinton

53% Trump
25% Cruz
12% Kasich
10% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick (Romney)

Rating: Toss-Up/Tilt Trump

99% Clinton
0.6% Sanders
0.4% Biden

Rating: Safe Clinton

[Boston Bread]

Clinton 98% (+6)
Sanders 2% (-6) (off chance health/FBI makes her resign)

Trump 75 (+10)
Cruz 15 (-10)
Kasich 5 (+3)
Other 5 (+1)

[Maxwell]

80% Trump
10% Cruz
10% Contested Convention (this includes Kasich)

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

at this point
85% clinton
15% sanders

75% trump
15% rubio
5% cruz
5% ?

80% clinton
20% sanders

85% trump
5% cruz
5% kasich
5% ?

95% clinton
5% sanders

90% trump
10% ?

[Figueira]

>99% Clinton
<1% Sanders

90% Trump
5% Cruz
5%

[Sir Mohamed]

99% Clinton
1% Bernie

50% Trump
30% contested convention
18% Cruz
2% Kasich

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dem:

80% Hillary
20% Bernie


GOP:

35% Trump
30% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
7% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

75% Hillary
25% Bernie


GOP:

55% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

90% Hillary
10% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
20% Rubio
5% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

80% Trump
13% Rubio
2% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

85% Trump
6% Cruz
3% Rubio
6% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
15% Cruz
1% Rubio
1% Kasich
13% Someone else

Dem:

95% Hillary
5% Bernie


GOP:

80% Drumpf
7% Cruz
1% Kasich
12% Someone else

Dem:

100% Hillary


GOP:

85% Drumpf
5% Cruz
1% Kasich
9% Someone else

[Erc]

97% Hillary
3% Field

65% Trump
20% Cruz
7% Kasich
8% Field

[dax00]

Dem
Clinton - 89%
Sanders - 10%

Rep
Trump, outright - 57.8%
Cruz, outright - 0.9%
Trump, convention - 8.2%
Cruz, convention - 28.5%
Kasich, convention - 3.7%
John P. Yob, convention - 0.1%
Other - 0.8%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Trump 55%
Cruz 30%
Kasich 10%
Other 5%


95% Clinton(+5)
5%Sanders(-5)

[/]

Clinton - 97%
Sanders - 3%

Trump - 65%
Cruz - 20%
Kasich - 15%
Other - 5%

That means we have a 63.05% chance of a Clinton-Trump election.

[Penelope]

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 99%
Sanders: 1%

Republican nomination
Outright Nomination: 60%
Contested Convention: 40%

Trump: 70%
Some Random Loser: 20%
Kasich: 6%
Cruz: 4%

[Orser67]

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 90%
Sanders: 9%
Biden/Kerry: 1%

Republican nomination
Outright Nomination: 60%
Contested Convention: 40%

Trump: 65%
Cruz: 20%
Kasich: 10%
Field: 5%

[trickmind]

Trump: 70%
Brokered Convention: 25%*
Cruz: 5%

*Brokered Convention doesn't necessarily mean not Trump though.

Clinton: 98%
Sanders: 1%
Someone else: 1%

[Wells]

Democrats
Hillary Clinton >99%
Bernie Sanders <1%

Republicans
Donald Trump 75%
Ted Cruz 20%
John Kasich 5% (brokered convention)

[Xing]

Clinton 99%
Sanders 1%

Trump 80%
Cruz 5%
Contested convention 15%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 98%
Sanders: 1%
Other: 1%

Republican nomination
Outright Nomination: 25%
Contested Convention: 75%

Trump: 45%
Cruz: 30%
Kasich: 5%
Field: 20%

[ElectionsGuy]

After 3/22:

Clinton: 95% (-1)
Sanders: 5% (+1)

Trump: 82% (-3)
Cruz: 6% (+1)
Convention: 12% (+2)

[The Other Castro]

43% Cruz
42% Trump
10% Kasich
5% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick

94% Clinton
5% Sanders
1% Biden

[Antonio the Sixth]

Haven't changed since last time.

[/]

Clinton - 95%
Sanders - 5%

Trump - 80%
Cruz - 7%
Kasich - 3%
Ryan - 1%
Haley - 1%
Scott - 1%
Rubio - .5%
Walker - .5%
Christie - .5%
Ros-Lehtinen - .5%
Flake - .5%
Herbert - .5%
Haslam - .5%
Fallin - .5%
Gardner - .5%
Fischer - .5%
Daugaard - .5%
Thune - .5%
Rounds - .5%
Corker - .5%

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton: 92% (-3)
Sanders: 8% (+3)

He's not significantly increasing his chances, but he's over performing expectations enough to make a huge upset more realistic.

[The Other Castro]

43% Cruz
42% Trump
10% Kasich
5% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick

94% Clinton
5% Sanders
1% Biden

45% Cruz
40% Trump
10% Kasich
5% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick

90% Clinton
9% Sanders
1% Biden

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm now going to do this differently...

Outright win - 60%

98% Trump
2% Cruz

Contested Convention - 40%

90% Cruz
10% Trump

Overall: 63% Trump, 37% Cruz.

Democrats remain unchanged.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 98%
Sanders: 1%
Other: 1%

Republican nomination
Outright Nomination: 25%
Contested Convention: 75%

Trump: 45%
Cruz: 30%
Kasich: 5%
Field: 20%

I just want to note that I have pretty much throughout the primary season taken the position that Trump would likely not be the nominee.

Republicans-
Outright nomination (10%):
Trump- 99%
Cruz- 1%

Contested convention (90%):
Cruz- 50%
Ryan- 30%
Trump- 10%
Kasich- 5%
Other- 5%

Overall:
Cruz: 45%
Ryan: 27%
Trump: 19%
Kasich: 4.5%
Other: 4.5%

Democrats:
Clinton: 97%
Sanders: 2%
Other: 1%