Likelihood to win the nomination

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

at this point
85% clinton
15% sanders

75% trump
15% rubio
5% cruz
5% ?

80% clinton
20% sanders

85% trump
5% cruz
5% kasich
5% ?

95% clinton
5% sanders

90% trump
10% ?

95% clinton
5% sanders

70% cruz
25% trump
5% ?

[Maxwell]

58% Trump
40% Cruz
2% contestud cunvention
0% lolKasich

[The Other Castro]

45% Cruz
40% Trump
10% Kasich
5% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick

90% Clinton
9% Sanders
1% Biden

60% Cruz
30% Trump
7% Kasich
3% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick

93% Clinton
6% Sanders
1% Biden

[ElectionsGuy]

Outright win (55%)
 - Trump 100%
Contested Convention (45%)
 - Cruz 95%, Trump 4%, Other 1%

Trump: 57%
Cruz: 43%

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton: 98% (+6)
Sanders: 2% (-6)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dem:

80% Hillary
20% Bernie


GOP:

35% Trump
30% Cruz
10% Rubio
8% Christie
7% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

75% Hillary
25% Bernie


GOP:

55% Trump
25% Cruz
10% Kasich
5% Bush
5% Someone else

Dem:

90% Hillary
10% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
20% Rubio
5% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

80% Trump
13% Rubio
2% Cruz
5% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

85% Trump
6% Cruz
3% Rubio
6% Someone else

Dem:

99% Hillary
1% Bernie


GOP:

70% Trump
15% Cruz
1% Rubio
1% Kasich
13% Someone else

Dem:

95% Hillary
5% Bernie


GOP:

80% Drumpf
7% Cruz
1% Kasich
12% Someone else

Dem:

100% Hillary


GOP:

85% Drumpf
5% Cruz
1% Kasich
9% Someone else

GOP:

70% Drumpf (50% on the first ballot, 20% on a later ballot)
16% Cruz
2% Kasich
12% Someone else

[The Other Castro]

60% Cruz
30% Trump
7% Kasich
3% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick

93% Clinton
6% Sanders
1% Biden

50% Cruz
40% Trump
6% Kasich
4% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick

99% Clinton
1% Sanders

[Penelope]

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 99%
Sanders: 1%

Republican nomination
Outright Nomination: 60%
Contested Convention: 40%

Trump: 70%
Some Random Loser: 20%
Kasich: 6%
Cruz: 4%

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 99.9%
Sanders: 0.1%

Republican nomination
*Outright Nomination: 50% (Trump 100%)
Brokered Convention: 50% (Cruz 50%, Compromise 25%, Kasich 20%, Trump 5%)

*Including option where Trump gets close and convinces some uncommitted delegates.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Democratic nomination
Clinton: 98%
Sanders: 1%
Other: 1%

Republican nomination
Outright Nomination: 25%
Contested Convention: 75%

Trump: 45%
Cruz: 30%
Kasich: 5%
Field: 20%

I just want to note that I have pretty much throughout the primary season taken the position that Trump would likely not be the nominee.

Republicans-
Outright nomination (10%):
Trump- 99%
Cruz- 1%

Contested convention (90%):
Cruz- 50%
Ryan- 30%
Trump- 10%
Kasich- 5%
Other- 5%

Overall:
Cruz: 45%
Ryan: 27%
Trump: 19%
Kasich: 4.5%
Other: 4.5%

Democrats:
Clinton: 97%
Sanders: 2%
Other: 1%

I was probably a little too optimistic right after Wisconsin.

Republicans-
Outright nomination (25%):
Trump- 100% (this includes the possibility of Trump winning on the first ballot despite not going in with 1237 pledged delegates)

Contested convention (75%):
Cruz- 65%
Trump- 15%
Other- 15%
Kasich- 5%

Overall:
Cruz: 49%
Trump: 36%
Other: 11%
Kasich: 4%


Democrats:
Clinton: 99%
Other: 1%

[The Other Castro]

50% Cruz
40% Trump
6% Kasich
4% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick

99% Clinton
1% Sanders

77% Trump
20% Cruz
2% Kasich
1% Brokered Convention Compromise Pick

99% Clinton
1% Sanders

[Xing]

Trump 75%
Cruz 20%
"Other" 5%

Clinton >99%
Sanders <1%

[Lief 🗽]

Trump 99%

Clinton 99%

It's over. Stop.

[Ljube]

Trump 99%

Clinton 99%

It's over. Stop.

Yesh. The only thing that can arrest Clinton is an indictment.

[ElectionsGuy]

Democrats

Clinton: 99%
Other: <1%

Republicans

Outright Win (65%) - Trump: 100%
Contested Convention (35%) - Cruz: 95%, Trump: 5%

Overall - Trump: 67%, Cruz: 33%

[Ljube]

Democrats

Clinton: 99%
Other: <1%

Republicans

Outright Win (65%) - Trump: 100%
Contested Convention (35%) - Cruz: 95%, Trump: 5%

Overall - Trump: 67%, Cruz: 33%

Where do you get those Republican numbers from?
No chance of a contested convention happeneing.

[ElectionsGuy]

Because you people are hysterical and overreact to everything. First it was Cruz's win in Wisconsin that was CONTESTED CONVENTION GUARANTEED!!! Now this and its a guaranteed Trump nomination. If you actually work through the math, as I've been doing, its still very possible to find a way for Cruz to stop Trump. I wouldn't extrapolate his crazy weak performance in Northeastern contests to other states. I think Trump is favored at this point, but he's not a strong front runner by any means. I'm not one to brag, but I'm pretty dang proud that I was highly skeptical of Cruz winning the nomination from the beginning of April.

Sorry, that's my rant. I'm just so sick of the prognosticators on this forum having the mood swings of a teenage girl.

[morgieb]

Clinton: 99%
Other (indictment, death, etc.): 1%

Trump: 75%
Cruz: 17%
Kasich: 5%
Convention Dark Horse: 2%

[Boston Bread]

Because you people are hysterical and overreact to everything. First it was Cruz's win in Wisconsin that was CONTESTED CONVENTION GUARANTEED!!! Now this and its a guaranteed Trump nomination. If you actually work through the math, as I've been doing, its still very possible to find a way for Cruz to stop Trump. I wouldn't extrapolate his crazy weak performance in Northeastern contests to other states. I think Trump is favored at this point, but he's not a strong front runner by any means. I'm not one to brag, but I'm pretty dang proud that I was highly skeptical of Cruz winning the nomination from the beginning of April.

Sorry, that's my rant. I'm just so sick of the prognosticators on this forum having the mood swings of a teenage girl.

The biggest reason to be bullish on Trump right now is that he is gaining in the polls in CA. We can't expect him to underperform polling anymore, and since it is WTA by district even a narrow Trump win would get him enough to win on the first ballot.

[Lief 🗽]

Because you people are hysterical and overreact to everything. First it was Cruz's win in Wisconsin that was CONTESTED CONVENTION GUARANTEED!!! Now this and its a guaranteed Trump nomination. If you actually work through the math, as I've been doing, its still very possible to find a way for Cruz to stop Trump. I wouldn't extrapolate his crazy weak performance in Northeastern contests to other states. I think Trump is favored at this point, but he's not a strong front runner by any means. I'm not one to brag, but I'm pretty dang proud that I was highly skeptical of Cruz winning the nomination from the beginning of April.

Sorry, that's my rant. I'm just so sick of the prognosticators on this forum having the mood swings of a teenage girl.

Ordinarily I agree with you, but I think it's clear after tonight that there's been a significant shift in the race. A week ago, no one thought Trump would be anywhere near where he was in Pennsylvania, Maryland, etc. It's clear that he's beginning to consolidate the party behind him.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Trump 55%
Cruz 30%
Kasich 10%
Other 5%


95% Clinton(+5)
5%Sanders(-5)

Democrats
<99% Clinton (+4)
>1% Sanders (-4)


Trump wins 1237 Delegates  before convention 55%
Brokered Convention 45%

In a Brokered Convention
Cruz 60%
Kasich 20%
Trump 12%
Other 8%

[ElectionsGuy]

Trump: 100%

[The Other Castro]

I still think Clinton is more likely to be the nominee than Trump is, since the odds of an indictment are smaller than the odds that Trump inexplicably drops out or is seriously maimed/other.

[morgieb]

At this stage both are 99%+. (i.e. require a freak scenario to lose the nomination)

[NeverAgain]

Trump: 85%
Cruz: 5%
Kasich: 1%
Brokered Convention Candidate: 9%

Clinton: 98%
Sanders : 1%
Convention Candidate: 1%