Minister killing seats
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: May 28, 2005, 05:23:06 AM »

Since 1901 the following seats have turfed out cabinet ministers in elections or by-elections...

Bethnal Green Southwest, Ipswich, Dudley, Tauton, Mitcham, Salford South, Bridgwater, Bradford East, Birmingham Erdington, Seaham, Bassetlaw, Birmingham Sparkbrook, Paddington North, Cardiff East, Stockton-on-Tees, Crewe, Shipley, Doncaster, Norwich South, Leyton, Gloucester, Moray & Nairn, Hertford & Stevenage, Bath, Stirling, Kettering, Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, Braintree, Enfield Southgate, Edinburgh Pentlands, Bristol West

Last time a cabinet minister lose their seat was in 1997 (when 7 went down... and all but one in seats that were thought of as "safe" seats by media people).
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Rural Radical
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2005, 12:51:52 PM »

Since 1901 the following seats have turfed out cabinet ministers in elections or by-elections...

Bethnal Green Southwest, Ipswich, Dudley, Tauton, Mitcham, Salford South, Bridgwater, Bradford East, Birmingham Erdington, Seaham, Bassetlaw, Birmingham Sparkbrook, Paddington North, Cardiff East, Stockton-on-Tees, Crewe, Shipley, Doncaster, Norwich South, Leyton, Gloucester, Moray & Nairn, Hertford & Stevenage, Bath, Stirling, Kettering, Galloway & Upper Nithsdale, Braintree, Enfield Southgate, Edinburgh Pentlands, Bristol West

When was Crewe and Bridgewater ?
What is the picture your displaying ? Wales

Last time a cabinet minister lose their seat was in 1997 (when 7 went down... and all but one in seats that were thought of as "safe" seats by media people).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2005, 03:08:06 PM »

What is the picture your displaying ? Wales
No, Cumbria.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2005, 01:57:45 PM »


No, Westmorland. It's High Cup Nick, close to the Durham border.
Cumbria is an artificial county containing parts of four old counties (Cumberland, Westmorland, Lancashire (the Furness/Lonsdale area) and Yorkshire, NR (the Sedbergh area) created by the evil forces of Ted Heath in 1972 Wink
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Peter
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« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2005, 01:32:00 AM »

The only members of the present cabinet who look vulnerable are:

Charles Clarke (Norwich South)
Margaret Beckett (Derby South)
Ruth Kelly (Bolton West)

The only one of these who I think can viably go come the next election at this point is Kelly.
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Rural Radical
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2005, 01:41:00 PM »

The only members of the present cabinet who look vulnerable are:

Charles Clarke (Norwich South)
Margaret Beckett (Derby South)
Ruth Kelly (Bolton West)

The only one of these who I think can viably go come the next election at this point is Kelly.


Norwich South and Derby South were under threat from the Lib Dems (if they were going to go Lib Dem ever they would have gon a la  Manchester Withington & Cambridge).

Bolton West is a more traditional Labour/Tory marginal and it will be competitive at every election 9although Kelly will have a 12 year incumbency at that point).
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Rural Radical
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2005, 01:43:17 PM »


No, Westmorland. It's High Cup Nick, close to the Durham border.
Cumbria is an artificial county containing parts of four old counties (Cumberland, Westmorland, Lancashire (the Furness/Lonsdale area) and Yorkshire, NR (the Sedbergh area) created by the evil forces of Ted Heath in 1972 Wink

Agreed. I also hate the way the following counties were created in 1972 : Greater Manchester, Merseyside, Cleveland, West Midlands, Tyne and wear and Avon.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2005, 01:47:10 PM »

Bolton West is one of the most reliable bellwether seats in the country; ever since the Bolton Lib/Con pact broke down in 1964 it's back the winner of the popular vote in every election, with the exception of 1979 when it stayed Labour.
Derby South is pretty safe IMO (Labour since the War) and IIRC Norwich South changes a lot in the next boundary changes; could be wrong tho'.

Interestingly enough, Labour often has Education Secretaries in marginal (or marginal-ish) seats (Williams, Morris, Clarke and now Kelly).
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