State of New York: Clinton 55% Sanders 34% (Siena)

[A Perez]

https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/hillary-leads-bernie-by-21-points-among-ny-dems

This Siena College Poll was conducted January 31-February 3, 2016 by telephone calls conducted in English to 930 New York State registered voters, - See more at: https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/hillary-leads-bernie-by-21-points-among-ny-dems#sthash.HbRZWk1V.dpuf

[Eraserhead]

Damn, Bernie's doing almost as well as Obama did!

[Shadows]

This is a survey of registered voters, so the numbers could be better. Very positive result for Clinton as she is doing well among all groups - even young voters which is surprising.

Anyways 21% is also achievable IMO for Sanders, but looks good for Clinton!

[Gass3268]

I imagine that Bernie will do much better than Obama in the upstate area that borders Vermont.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Pretty good!  He should get people feelin' the Bern in hr metro area!

[psychprofessor]

cross tabs for blacks and hispanics are brutal for bernie...he can't win the nom or even seriously challenge it if these same numbers keep showing up in state after state

Blacks: 68/25 Hillary
Hispanics: 63/36 Hillary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just another bellweather for NV & SC.

[RI]

I don't think anyone's posted the GOP numbers:

34 Trump
16 Cruz
16 Rubio
11 Christie
  7 Bush
  4 Kasich

[Shadows]

cross tabs for blacks and hispanics are brutal for bernie...he can't win the nom or even seriously challenge it if these same numbers keep showing up in state after state

Blacks: 68/25 Hillary
Hispanics: 63/36 Hillary

Which is not bad. That is 27% behind in the Hispanics (which IMO can be made up), Favourability ratings are good among the Hispanics.

42% behind for Blacks. He has to catch up I agree. There is a LOT OF time left. If Bernie does well, there is A LOT OF Time for a swing so that he can catch up.

Way too early to react. Getting such huge white votes is a Big thing IMO

[Slow Learner]

I don't think anyone's posted the GOP numbers:

34 Trump
16 Cruz
16 Rubio
11 Christie
  7 Bush
  4 Kasich

Why would 16% of NY Republicans support someone who's insulted their states? That seems a bit odd.

[RI]

I don't think anyone's posted the GOP numbers:

34 Trump
16 Cruz
16 Rubio
11 Christie
  7 Bush
  4 Kasich

Why would 16% of NY Republicans support someone who's insulted their states? That seems a bit odd.

A lot of upstate NYers really hate NYC.

[Torie]

I don't think anyone's posted the GOP numbers:

34 Trump
16 Cruz
16 Rubio
11 Christie
  7 Bush
  4 Kasich

Why would 16% of NY Republicans support someone who's insulted their states? That seems a bit odd.

Because very conservative Republicans don't like "NY values," even though they live there.

[RI]

Looking at the crosstabs, Trump unsurprisingly does really well in NYC and its suburbs with over 40%, with Catholics, and with union households. Cruz makes it much closer upstate (24-20 Trump) and apparently Christie does really well upstate as well (18%)?

[Ebsy]

Pretty great crosstabs for Clinton. The only group she isn't winning is 18-34, which is basically tied 46-47. Surprisingly, Sanders is doing best among the wealthiest voters. He's also very, very weak with minority voters, suburban voters, and women voters.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I don't think anyone's posted the GOP numbers:

34 Trump
16 Cruz
16 Rubio
11 Christie
  7 Bush
  4 Kasich

Why would 16% of NY Republicans support someone who's insulted their states? That seems a bit odd.

A lot of upstate NYers really hate NYC.

Sounds like downstate Illinois. Trump did a rally in Springfield and mentioned Chicago during his speech. Just the mention of the city's name drew boos from the crowd. Cruz may have even picked up a few points in upstate NY for insulting NYC.

[cinyc]

I imagine that Bernie will do much better than Obama in the upstate area that borders Vermont.

The bad news for Bernie Sanders is practically nobody lives in the North Country compared to the rest of the state.  Some of those counties are in the Burlington, VT TV market, and he will do well there.  But he'll be lucky if 50,000 Democratic voters turn out in that area.

I don't think anyone's posted the GOP numbers:

34 Trump
16 Cruz
16 Rubio
11 Christie
  7 Bush
  4 Kasich

Why would 16% of NY Republicans support someone who's insulted their states? That seems a bit odd.

Because very conservative Republicans don't like "NY values," even though they live there.

This, coupled with Upstate's hatred of everything New York City, is a recipe for Cruz to pick up a few delegates in New York.

[Figueira]

I imagine that Bernie will do much better than Obama in the upstate area that borders Vermont.

He also might do well in NYC since he's originally from there.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hard to see Clinton not reaching 60% in NY

[The Other Castro]

Hard to see Clinton not reaching 60% in NY

In a general election sure. The only way she's breaking 60% in the primary is if Sanders has dropped out by then.

[Figueira]

I imagine that Bernie will do much better than Obama in the upstate area that borders Vermont.

The bad news for Bernie Sanders is practically nobody lives in the North Country compared to the rest of the state.  Some of those counties are in the Burlington, VT TV market, and he will do well there.  But he'll be lucky if 50,000 Democratic voters turn out in that area.

I don't think anyone's posted the GOP numbers:

34 Trump
16 Cruz
16 Rubio
11 Christie
  7 Bush
  4 Kasich

Why would 16% of NY Republicans support someone who's insulted their states? That seems a bit odd.

Because very conservative Republicans don't like "NY values," even though they live there.

This, coupled with Upstate's hatred of everything New York City, is a recipe for Cruz to pick up a few delegates in New York.

Haven't polls shown Trump leading by a lot in Upstate New York?

[bigedlb]

Crosstabs

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton didn't even reach 60% in NY in 2008. That said, she should do much better in the city this time, which will offset any upstate losses. Probably similar to the Cuomo-Teachout result in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Trump doing as well as he is, she should be fine in NY, even reaching 60.

[CatoMinor]

Assuming Bernie is still competing by the time of the NY primary, I wonder how much the results will resemble the Cuomo vs Teachout map. Perhaps the fact that Bernie is actually from NY may help.

[cinyc]

I imagine that Bernie will do much better than Obama in the upstate area that borders Vermont.

The bad news for Bernie Sanders is practically nobody lives in the North Country compared to the rest of the state.  Some of those counties are in the Burlington, VT TV market, and he will do well there.  But he'll be lucky if 50,000 Democratic voters turn out in that area.

I don't think anyone's posted the GOP numbers:

34 Trump
16 Cruz
16 Rubio
11 Christie
  7 Bush
  4 Kasich

Why would 16% of NY Republicans support someone who's insulted their states? That seems a bit odd.

Because very conservative Republicans don't like "NY values," even though they live there.

This, coupled with Upstate's hatred of everything New York City, is a recipe for Cruz to pick up a few delegates in New York.

Haven't polls shown Trump leading by a lot in Upstate New York?

Not this poll.  It shows Trump narrowly leading Cruz 24-20 Upstate.  That would translate into delegates for Cruz in at least some Upstate Congressional Districts.  If I remember correctly, if someone gets over 50% in a CD, they get all delegates.  Otherwise, a second-place finisher with over 20% of the vote gets 1 delegate, while the winner gets 2.

Note I said Cruz would get a few New York delegates, not even close to half, under this scenario.