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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process (Moderator: muon2)
  IRV
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Author Topic: IRV  (Read 2818 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« on: February 08, 2016, 11:58:15 AM »

I don't see a thread devoted to IRV, so I thought I'd start one.

I am aware of the shortcomings of IRV (the hypothetical Tennessee capital election on Wikipedia's IRV page is a good example). Also the fact that the ballots of those who vote "1" for the PV winner are only examined once, while other ballots are examined multiple times.

In real life, Bob Kiss probably would have won the 2009 Burlington, VT mayoral election if the old (and later reinstated) 40% rule was in effect. (If no one gets over 40% there is a runoff between top two candidates).

Still, I see it as a viable option, removing the idea of a wasted vote.

What do we think? Would Gore have won in 2000 if every state had IRV? (I believe he would have won FL and NH). Didn't this used to be called the Hare system?
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Figs
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« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2016, 08:19:01 AM »

I think IRV has shortcomings, but using those shortcomings as an argument against it (and thus, implicitly, as an argument in favor of the status quo, the ever more shortcoming-riddled FPTP) is silly.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2016, 01:43:19 PM »
« Edited: February 09, 2016, 01:48:34 PM by mathstatman »

I think IRV has shortcomings, but using those shortcomings as an argument against it (and thus, implicitly, as an argument in favor of the status quo, the ever more shortcoming-riddled FPTP) is silly.
I agree. Repealing Burlington's IRV in 2010 (by 52-48%) may have been cathartic for Republicans, but I feel it was a step backwards. Kiss (Prog.) still would have won in 2009. The only way Wright (R) wins is under FPTP.

I think it is telling that IRV is in place mainly in left-leaning communities.

The 2013 VA gubernatorial election is a good example of how IRV would work. McCauliff (D) beat Cucinelli (R) 48.1-45.5%, with 6.4% voting libertarian. Ds and Rs argued over who lost more votes to the Libertarian, and McAuliffe took office with less than majority support. Giving Libertarian voters (along with everyone else) a chance to select a second choice would remove the minority support aspect (and in this case possibly change the result). Similarly for another election in which the R defeated the D 48-47, with L getting 4%, which also produced arguments (the L, who was pro-same-sex marriage, may have taken votes from the D).
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CrabCake
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2016, 02:06:14 PM »

How about Approval Voting? That could be less "controversial" than IRV in that you wouldn't get inane complaints like in Burlington.
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emailking
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2016, 02:25:56 PM »

What do we think? Would Gore have won in 2000 if every state had IRV? (I believe he would have won FL and NH).

If there was IRV people may have voted very differently in the first place since there's significantly less incentive to vote strategically. It may have affected how the candidates campaigned as well, and also who turned out to vote (since a 3rd party vote isn't necessarily a wasted vote). So who knows. But if we try to retroactively impose IRV but keep all the first choices the same, then yes I think Gore definitely would have won Florida and thus the election. I think it's less clear he would have won New Hampshire but it's possible...maybe more likely than not. I don't think anything else would have flipped.
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