What do we think? Would Gore have won in 2000 if every state had IRV? (I believe he would have won FL and NH).
If there was IRV people may have voted very differently in the first place since there's significantly less incentive to vote strategically. It may have affected how the candidates campaigned as well, and also who turned out to vote (since a 3rd party vote isn't necessarily a wasted vote). So who knows. But if we try to retroactively impose IRV but keep all the first choices the same, then yes I think Gore definitely would have won Florida and thus the election. I think it's less clear he would have won New Hampshire but it's possible...maybe more likely than not. I don't think anything else would have flipped.
