Atlas Predicts NH 2016: 'We know exactly what we're doing'
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Author Topic: Atlas Predicts NH 2016: 'We know exactly what we're doing'  (Read 4630 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #75 on: February 09, 2016, 07:21:29 AM »
My predictions are exclusive to AAD. Tongue
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Lord of the Dome
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« Reply #76 on: February 09, 2016, 07:25:33 AM »
Republicans

Trump: 26
Rubio:15
Cruz: 16
Kasich: 17
Bush:12
Christie:8
Fiorina:4
Carson:2
Gilmore:0

Democrats

Sanders:56
Clinton:44
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ericpolitico
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« Reply #77 on: February 09, 2016, 08:19:19 AM »
Sanders 53-54
Clinton 46-47

Trump 27-28
Kasich 20
Marco 20
Jeb 14
Cruz 10
Christie 8
Fiorina 4
Carson 2
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #78 on: February 09, 2016, 08:34:05 AM »
I have a feeling I'm not going to do as well this time.

Republicans

Trump: 29%
Rubio: 15.5%
Cruz: 12%
Kasich: 15%
Bush: 14.5%
Christie: 7%
Fiorina: 4%
Carson: 3%
Gilmore: 0%

Christie and Carly drop out.  Ben might, but I think he stays in through SC.  I have no idea why Gilmore is still in the race, so no idea if/when he drops out.

Democrats

Sanders: 56%
Clinton: 42%
(Other: 2%)
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Higgs
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« Reply #79 on: February 09, 2016, 08:41:02 AM »
Republicans

Trump: 24%
Rubio: 19%
Cruz: 15%
Kasich: 17%
Bush: 11%
Christie: 9%
Fiorina: 3%
Carson: 2%
Gilmore: 0%

Democrats

Sanders: 55%
Clinton: 45%
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Warren Griffin
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« Reply #80 on: February 09, 2016, 08:59:34 AM »
« Edited: February 09, 2016, 05:50:15 PM by Warren Griffin »
Democrats:

Sanders: 58%
Clinton: 41,5%
Others: 0,5%

GOP:

Trump: 26%
Kasich: 20%
Bush: 14%
Rubio: 13%
Cruz: 11%
Christie: 10,5%
Fiorina: 3%
Carson: 2,5%

Update:

Republicans:

Trump: 24,5%
Kasich: 23%
Bush: 14%
Rubio: 11,5%
Cruz: 11%
Christie: 10,5%
Fiorina: 3%
Carson: 2,5%
Gilmore: 0%

Democrats:

Sanders: 60%
Clinton: 40%
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #81 on: February 09, 2016, 09:01:18 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 07, 2016, 10:58:43 AM
27% Trump
18% Kasich
14% Bush
12% Cruz
11% Rubio
10% Christie
  4% Fiorina
  3% Carson
  1% Others (big field)

Dems:

57% Sanders
42% Clinton
  1% Others (big field)
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #82 on: February 09, 2016, 09:02:24 AM »
Republicans

Trump: 27%
Rubio: 17%
Cruz: 13%
Kasich: 15%
Bush: 13%
Christie: 9%
Fiorina: 3%
Carson: 2%
Gilmore: 0%

Democrats

Sanders: 58%
Clinton: 41%
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #83 on: February 09, 2016, 09:24:53 AM »
« Edited: February 09, 2016, 09:26:39 AM by Speaker Cris »
Republicans
Trump: 33.8%
Rubio: 16%
Cruz: 12.8%
Kasich: 13.5%
Bush: 10.4%
Christie: 5.7%
Fiorina: 4.3%
Carson: 2.8%
Gilmore: 0.1%

Democrats
Sanders: 57.7%
Clinton: 42%
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Penelope
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« Reply #84 on: February 09, 2016, 09:26:15 AM »
Might update these later. For now:

Democratic Primary
57%   Sanders
41%   Clinton

  2%   Others

Republican Primary
29%   Trump
18%   Kasich
15%   Bush
12%   Rubio
11%   Cruz
  8%   Christie
  4%   Fiorina
  3%   Carson

  1%   Others
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sportydude
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« Reply #85 on: February 09, 2016, 09:30:44 AM »
Democratic Primary
53%   Sanders
45%   Clinton

  2%   Others

Republican Primary
30%   Trump
15%   Kasich
15%   Cruz
13%   Rubio
11%   Bush
  8%   Christie
  4%   Fiorina
  3%   Carson

  1%   Others
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Torie
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« Reply #86 on: February 09, 2016, 09:33:03 AM »
« Edited: February 09, 2016, 09:45:35 AM by Torie »
Democratic Primary
56.5%   Sanders
42.5%   Clinton
  1%   Others

Republican Primary
27%   Trump
17%   Kasich
14%   Rubio
14%   Cruz
13%   Bush
  8%   Christie
  3%   Fiorina
  3%   Carson

  
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The Free North
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« Reply #87 on: February 09, 2016, 12:23:08 PM »
All picks have been updated through 12:14 Eastern Time. Picks will be accepted all the way up until the exit polls are released. If you would like to edit an earlier prediction, please indicate you have done so.


We currently have over 80 picks and here is the average of our collective guesses.

Republicans

Trump   28.2%
Rubio   14.4%
Cruz   13.2%
Kasich   16.2%
żJeb?   12.1%
Christie   9.0%
Fiorina   3.4%
Carson   2.8%
Gilmore   0.1%

Democrats

Sanders   55%
Clinton   44%


Atlas aggregate: Trump + 11.9% and Sanders + 11%
RCP poll aggregate: Trump +17.2% and Sanders +13.3%
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Broken System
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« Reply #88 on: February 09, 2016, 01:41:10 PM »
Quote from: Broken System on February 09, 2016, 12:01:52 AM
Quote from: Broken System on February 08, 2016, 08:25:05 PM
Republicans

Trump: 23.6
Rubio: 20.3
Cruz: 16.5
Kasich: 14.9
Bush: 10.8
Christie: 5.3
Fiorina: 3.8
Carson: 2.1
Gilmore: 0.1

Democrats

Sanders: 52.5
Clinton: 44.2

I am making some midnight changes to finalize my picks:
Trump: 23.5
Rubio: 20.2
Cruz: 14.9
Kasich: 15.9
Bush: 12.7
Christie: 4.5
Fiorina: 3.6
Carson: 2.0
Gilmore: 0.1

UPDATE:

Republicans

Trump: 23.2
Rubio: 19.5
Cruz: 16.4
Kasich: 17.5
Bush: 10.6
Christie: 4.6
Fiorina: 3.6
Carson: 1.9
Gilmore: 0.1

Democrats

Sanders: 52.6
Clinton: 44.1
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #89 on: February 09, 2016, 02:00:27 PM »
Republicans

Trump: 28
Rubio: 18
Kasich: 17
Bush: 12
Cruz: 11
Christie: 10
Carson: 2
Fiorina: 1
Gilmore: 0

Democrats

Sanders: 58
Clinton: 41
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DKrol
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« Reply #90 on: February 09, 2016, 02:12:09 PM »
Massive surge on the ground for Kasich.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #91 on: February 09, 2016, 02:26:40 PM »
Republicans:

Trump: 26
Rubio: 17
Kasich: 16
Bush: 13
Cruz: 12
Christie: 9
Fiorina: 4
Carson: 2

Democrats:

Sanders: 60
Clinton: 39
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Holmes
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« Reply #92 on: February 09, 2016, 02:38:02 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on February 08, 2016, 01:48:56 PM
Republicans

Trump: 33
Rubio: 13
Cruz: 12
Kasich: 15
Bush: 10
Christie: 9
Fiorina: 4
Carson:3
Gilmore: 0

Democrats

Sanders: 55
Clinton: 43

I'm changing my prediction a little bit.

Republicans

Trump: 31
Rubio: 12
Cruz: 12
Kasich: 17
Bush: 10
Christie: 10
Fiorina: 4
Carson:3
Gilmore: 0

Democrats

Sanders: 54
Clinton: 44
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PaperKooper
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« Reply #93 on: February 09, 2016, 02:57:51 PM »
I must say that I feel significantly less confident in these predictions than I did in my Iowa predictions.  I don't expect to come in fourth this time. 

Republicans

Trump: 26%
Rubio: 18%
Kasich: 18%
Cruz: 14%
Bush: 10%
Christie: 6%
Fiorina: 5%
Carson: 3%
Gilmore: 0%

Democrats

Sanders: 56%
Clinton: 42%
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #94 on: February 09, 2016, 04:30:05 PM »
Sanders: 56%
Clinton: 43%

Trump: 24%
Rubio: 19%
Kasich: 17%
Cruz: 16%
Bush: 11%
Christie: 7%
Fiorina: 3%
Carson: 3%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #95 on: February 09, 2016, 04:42:33 PM »
Trump 30
Kasich 16
Rubio 13
Cruz 13
Bush 11
Christie 10
Fiorina 3
Carson 3
Gilmore 0

Sanders 56
Clinton 44
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #96 on: February 09, 2016, 06:10:37 PM »
You'll probably do this anyway, but at some point lock this thread. At least until you write everything down so people can't edit their numbers as results roll in. I guess since I posted this, I'll make a prediction too.

Republicans:
Trump 28.8
Kasich 14.9
Rubio 13.9
Cruz 12.8
Bush 12.3
Christie 6.5
Fiorina 5.6
Carson 3.5
Others 1.4

Democrats:
Sanders 57.3
Clinton 40.6
Others 2.1
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The Free North
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« Reply #97 on: February 09, 2016, 06:12:12 PM »
Quote from: Sorenroy on February 09, 2016, 06:10:37 PM
You'll probably do this anyway, but at some point lock this thread. At least until you write everything down so people can't edit their numbers as results roll in. I guess since I posted this, I'll make a prediction too.

Republicans:
Trump 28.8
Kasich 14.9
Rubio 13.9
Cruz 12.8
Bush 12.3
Christie 6.5
Fiorina 5.6
Carson 3.5
Others 1.4

Democrats:
Sanders 57.3
Clinton 40.6
Others 2.1

I will once the polls are closed.
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The Free North
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« Reply #98 on: February 09, 2016, 06:15:13 PM »
Actually since exit poll data is being released I am going to lock this right now.
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