FL-Florida Southern College: Clinton trails Rubio/Bush narrowly, beats Trump
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  FL-Florida Southern College: Clinton trails Rubio/Bush narrowly, beats Trump
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Author Topic: FL-Florida Southern College: Clinton trails Rubio/Bush narrowly, beats Trump  (Read 2159 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: February 08, 2016, 01:56:31 PM »

Rubio (R): 45%
Clinton (D): 43%

Clinton (D): 45%
Trump (R): 38%

Bush (R): 45%
Clinton (D): 42%

http://saintpetersblog.com/archives/252092

Looks like Trump has a FL/VA problem...
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2016, 01:58:12 PM »

Glad to see this poll. Clinton wins.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2016, 04:16:24 PM »

Trump has a problem everywhere there are educated people.

I hope you guys are waking up to the "Donald the GE savior" myth, lol.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2016, 04:36:56 PM »

This poll does seem too favorable to Dems, but you never know, Dems are expanding map.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2016, 04:57:46 PM »

Dreadful performance by Donald Trump, weak performances for what should be Favorite Sons.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2016, 11:59:07 PM »

Not a great poll for Rubio. If he's only ahead by two in FL, he's probably not winning against Clinton.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2016, 02:05:43 AM »

Didnt a poll show Clinton losing to Trump a few weeks ago?  Dems shouldnt be overconfident, GOP are favored in FL. While Dems have consistently been behind in MI & Pa polls.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2016, 06:50:33 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2016, 07:53:12 PM by pbrower2a »

A Favorite Son is usually worth 5% to 10% in a Presidential election. So if Bush or Rubio barely win Florida, he likely loses Ohio (typically the closest analogue to Florida without a Favorite Son) decisively.

That of course assumes that the state holds the Favorite Son in strong regard.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2016, 08:48:28 AM »

Dems are focused on Va, CO or OH. Ohio or Va ends it, but if Murphy has a high Latino turnout can give state to Hilary, since Trump is an unconventional GOPer.
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madelka
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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2016, 01:47:45 PM »

TRUMP will win without Florida and Virginia! He likes to play BIG, FL and VA aren't BIG enough for him.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2016, 06:14:04 PM »

A Favorite Son is usually worth 5% to 10% in a Presidential election. So if Bush or Rubio barely win Florida, they likely lose Ohio (typically the closest analogue to Florida without a Favorite Son) decisively.

That of course assumes that the state holds the Favorite Son in strong regard.

Can you even say Bush will have a 5-10% "favorite son" factor in Florida? He hasn't been on the ballot for 14 years.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2016, 06:30:35 PM »

A Favorite Son is usually worth 5% to 10% in a Presidential election. So if Bush or Rubio barely win Florida, they likely lose Ohio (typically the closest analogue to Florida without a Favorite Son) decisively.

That of course assumes that the state holds the Favorite Son in strong regard.

Can you even say Bush will have a 5-10% "favorite son" factor in Florida? He hasn't been on the ballot for 14 years.

I'm guessing. I have no idea how strong the effect is.

When I see him doing marginally no better in Florida against Trump, Cruz, or Kasich than he does against one of those in a state in which he has no connection (let us say Pennsylvania).

The only instance in which I expect the Favorite Son effect to be of no help is when the pol has been rejected in his own State (example: Santorum in Pennsylvania).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2016, 07:41:34 PM »

Dems are very focused right now on OH and Va, because Dems want to win, and Strickland gives Dems Ohio/Va and the election.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2016, 08:57:30 PM »

When it comes to the crunch those Republicans who may not be fond of TRUMP will hold their noses because, well, the alternative is Hillary Clinton.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2016, 09:03:10 PM »

When it comes to the crunch those Republicans who may not be fond of TRUMP will hold their noses because, well, the alternative is Hillary Clinton.

In FL, not Virginia, Clinton is holding up there with McAuliffe & Northam
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2016, 01:49:01 PM »

Didnt a poll show Clinton losing to Trump a few weeks ago?  Dems shouldnt be overconfident, GOP are favored in FL. While Dems have consistently been behind in MI & Pa polls.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2016, 02:49:38 PM »

Dems are sprnding money in Ohio, especially since they have Strickland, where it seems Portman has lost his advantage to Strickland. It was originally thought Colorado would be the bellweather. But, OH/Va is looking really fruitful, this time. They arent that concerned about FL
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2016, 03:34:41 PM »

Dems are sprnding money in Ohio, especially since they have Strickland, where it seems Portman has lost his advantage to Strickland. It was originally thought Colorado would be the bellweather. But, OH/Va is looking really fruitful, this time. They arent that concerned about FL
n0boody cairs wut u think ov politiks
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2016, 04:54:42 PM »

The  Dems are gonna win anyways over Trump.
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madelka
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« Reply #19 on: February 12, 2016, 03:04:23 PM »

Didnt a poll show Clinton losing to Trump a few weeks ago?  Dems shouldnt be overconfident, GOP are favored in FL. While Dems have consistently been behind in MI & Pa polls.

Clinton isn't losing FL to Trump. The days when FL was a Republican-leaning state at the presidential level are long gone.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: February 12, 2016, 04:37:31 PM »
« Edited: February 12, 2016, 04:41:29 PM by Da-Jon »

Clinton is focused on NV, CO, Pa & NH, she isnt worried about FL. FL will go Dem only in a wave.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #21 on: February 12, 2016, 05:48:09 PM »

Didnt a poll show Clinton losing to Trump a few weeks ago?  Dems shouldnt be overconfident, GOP are favored in FL. While Dems have consistently been behind in MI & Pa polls.

Clinton isn't losing FL to Trump. The days when FL was a Republican-leaning state at the presidential level are long gone.

Don't be so sure of that. Florida was 3 points to the right of the nation in 2012. Obama won by one point in FL while winning nationally by 4. It may be trending Democratic in the long term due to the Hispanic population growth, but as of now it is a Republican leaning swing state.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: February 12, 2016, 06:38:02 PM »

Trump is a Romney candidate. But Romney kept it close until the Oct wave.  And with budget shortfalls in most of thr states, the election is likely to remain close. 2013, saw sequestration. After election.
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Devils30
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« Reply #23 on: February 12, 2016, 10:39:39 PM »

Romney won 39% of Hispanics in Florida in 2012. It's not tough to see Trump falling completely off a cliff to 25-30%, with Cubans voting for Hillary over Trump. Trump would also underperform with educated whites.
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Ljube
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« Reply #24 on: February 14, 2016, 01:57:54 AM »

Romney won 39% of Hispanics in Florida in 2012. It's not tough to see Trump falling completely off a cliff to 25-30%, with Cubans voting for Hillary over Trump. Trump would also underperform with educated whites.

Of course, you have no difficulty seeing any fantastic result that benefits your party.
How about considering a TRUMP sweep of PA, OH and MI?
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