FL-Florida Southern College: Clinton trails Rubio/Bush narrowly, beats Trump

[pbrower2a]

Dreadful performance by Donald Trump, weak performances for what should be Favorite Sons.

[pbrower2a]

A Favorite Son is usually worth 5% to 10% in a Presidential election. So if Bush or Rubio barely win Florida, he likely loses Ohio (typically the closest analogue to Florida without a Favorite Son) decisively.

That of course assumes that the state holds the Favorite Son in strong regard.

[pbrower2a]

A Favorite Son is usually worth 5% to 10% in a Presidential election. So if Bush or Rubio barely win Florida, they likely lose Ohio (typically the closest analogue to Florida without a Favorite Son) decisively.

That of course assumes that the state holds the Favorite Son in strong regard.

Can you even say Bush will have a 5-10% "favorite son" factor in Florida? He hasn't been on the ballot for 14 years.

I'm guessing. I have no idea how strong the effect is.

When I see him doing marginally no better in Florida against Trump, Cruz, or Kasich than he does against one of those in a state in which he has no connection (let us say Pennsylvania).

The only instance in which I expect the Favorite Son effect to be of no help is when the pol has been rejected in his own State (example: Santorum in Pennsylvania).

[pbrower2a]

Romney won 39% of Hispanics in Florida in 2012. It's not tough to see Trump falling completely off a cliff to 25-30%, with Cubans voting for Hillary over Trump. Trump would also underperform with educated whites.

Of course, you have no difficulty seeing any fantastic result that benefits your party.
How about considering a TRUMP sweep of PA, OH and MI?

Republicans will need to win both Ohio and Pennsylvania should they lose Virginia. They will also need Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin to win if they should lose Florida as well as Virginia.

Republicans can basically count out Michigan due to the toxic waters of Flint and Wisconsin, where the the Walker governorship is more metaphorically toxic.

Expect new polls to emerge from Ohio and Pennsylvania in a few weeks. The last ones date from when Hillary Clinton was reeling from the private server non-scandal and from Republican scrutiny of Benghazi. Then, and only then, can anyone speak of  Republicans winning Ohio or Pennsylvania.