Alternate 2016 Senate ratings

[tpfkaw]

What ratings would we put on the various 2016 Senate races that could've gone the other way* in 2010?

*I'm defining that as a margin under 15%.

Illinois (Giannoulias) - Safe D hold
Nevada (Angle) - Likely D pickup
Pennsylvania (Sestak) - Likely D hold
Wisconsin (Feingold) - Likely D hold
California (Fiorina) - Lean D pickup (Safe D if seat open b/c she's the GOP POTUS nominee)
North Carolina (Marshall) - Tossup, tilt D hold
Colorado (Buck) - Pure tossup
Connecticut (McMahon) - Pure tossup
Indiana (Ellsworth) - Tossup, tilt R pickup
Alaska (Miller) - Lean R hold
Kentucky (Conway) - Lean R pickup
Missouri (Carnahan) - Lean R pickup
Washington (Rossi) - Lean R hold
West Virginia (Raese) - Safe R hold

[tpfkaw]

And with plausible alternate primary winners who might've plausibly won the general:

Illinois (Hoffman) - Safe D hold
New Hampshire (Lamontagne) - Likely D pickup
Florida (Greene) - Lean D hold
California (Campbell) - Tossup, tilt D pickup
Pennsylvania (Specter/Specter) - Tossup, seat open due to death of incumbent
Arizona (Hayworth) - Tossup, tilt R hold
Kentucky (Mongiardo) - Tossup, tilt R pickup
Nevada (Tarkanian) - Tossup, tilt R hold
Florida (Crist) - Lean R hold
Indiana (Hostettler) - Lean R hold
Nevada (Lowden) - Lean R hold
Colorado (Norton) - Likely R hold
Connecticut (Simmons) - Likely R hold
Indiana (Stutzman) - Likely R hold
Delaware (Castle) - Safe R hold
Kansas (Tiahrt) - Safe R hold
Kentucky (Grayson) - Safe R hold
Utah (Bennett) - Safe R hold
Utah (Bridgewater) - Safe R hold

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Florida with a Indie/Dem Crist would make an interesting scenario here.

[Kingpoleon]

Illinois (Giannoulias) - Safe D hold; v. Walsh/Brady
Nevada (Angle) - Likely D pickup; Primaried: v. Krolicki; v. Navarro/Rory Reid
Pennsylvania (Sestak) - Tossup, Tilt D hold; v. Rohrer/Costello
Wisconsin (Feingold) - Likely D hold; v. Walker/Duffy
California (Fiorina) - Likely D pickup (Safe D if seat open b/c she's the GOP POTUS nominee); v. Harris/Garcetti
Indiana (Ellsworth) - Tossup, tilt R pickup; v. Daniels/Young
Alaska (Miller) - Tossup, tilt R hold; v. McAdams/Berkowitz
North Carolina (Marshall) - Tossup, tilt R pickup; v. Dole/Tillis
Colorado (Buck) - Tossup, tilt R hold; v. Johnston/Udall
Connecticut (McMahon) - Pure tossup; v. Murphy
Kentucky (Conway) - Lean R pickup; v. Bevin/Comer
Missouri (Carnahan) - Tossup, Tilt R pickup; v. Hanaway/Smith
Washington (Rossi) - Lean R hold; v. Locke/Constantine
West Virginia (Raese) - Likely R hold; v. Jim Justice
Florida (Crist) - Tossup, Tilt I/R hold; v. Alex Sink