Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)

[IceSpear]

Early exit poll leak: The women are not only angry, they are FURIOUS!

RIP Sanders

[IceSpear]

Congrats to the Bernie supporters.

[IceSpear]

MSNBC: Clinton "former frontrunner"

lol. The media is going to be unbearable until SC.

[IceSpear]

7% of NH Dem. primary voters were non-white, and they went for Clinton narrowly:

Clinton 52%
Sanders 48%

What was the registered Dems vs. independents breakdown?

[IceSpear]

7% of NH Dem. primary voters were non-white, and they went for Clinton narrowly:

Clinton 52%
Sanders 48%

What was the registered Dems vs. independents breakdown?

Democrats: 50-50 Clinton
Independents: 72-27 Sanders

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/nh/Dem

Great silver lining for my fellow Hillaryites. If Bernie can't win registered Dems in NH of all places, he has essentially no chance in any closed primaries.

[IceSpear]

I am feeling so much schadenfreude. Hillary performing like this, losing women, and only narrowly winning the minorities...

You really can't compare minorities in NH (especially due to the extremely small sample size and therefore gigantic margin of error) with minorities in the rest of the country.

[IceSpear]

Hillary was crushed tonight. The polls were showing it something like 55%-45%, as the predictions from earlier today here showed.

Yes it's New Hampshire, but then again look at how much establishment support she has, look at how marginal Bernie was supposed to be months ago. You can't dismiss this. Whatever Clinton's doing, it's not working-- and what Sanders is doing, is working. His message of political revolution is resonating. Her message of caution is not resonating.

Let's see some states that aren't in the top 5 favorable for Bernie before we start drawing any grand conclusions here.

[IceSpear]

I don't give a sh**t about this tiny ass state that just like Iowa doesn't represent most of America. Too white, too liberal and far too few people. Hillary is gonna dominate Bernie in 3 weeks. Super Tuesday baby!

Yup. Someone is starting to sweat like a dog, it seems.

I've known this WAS NEVER A CONTEST FOR A VERY LONG TIME NOW. BERNIE NEVER HAD A CHANCE TO WIN THIS.

No, not "a very long time." Go back six months ago and tell anyone a 74-year-old self-proclaimed socialist from Vermont would win a State against Hillary. They would have laughed hard at you.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-could-win-iowa-and-new-hampshire-then-lose-everywhere-else/

Well, that was easy. And not just "anyone", but a statistical website!

[IceSpear]

OK, looks like my memory failed me in terms of timing. But go back about 3 months further and everybody was writing off Bernie. The point is that it's unprecedented for a total outsider to do so well.

Well now you're correct. But it's already been priced in that he's doing far better than anyone expected at the very beginning. This was why the "Bernie won Iowa because he made it close!" theory never held water. Once it became clear he was a serious candidate, Iowa was supposed to be one of his easiest targets.

[IceSpear]

Here's a poll from May where Hillary led 62-18.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=212549.0

LOL Trump in 5th place!

Trump should fade to near 0 with time.

lol

[IceSpear]

Oh, let me guess: Hillary supporters in here being whiny and antagonistic after being delivered a brutal spanking in her latest underperformance? I'd recommend that everybody else stop engaging them. They've all been bragging and making grand assertions for years now, with a stealthy series of goal-posts being moved every time they fall short.

"But Hillary will win with 70% of the vote!"
"60%!"
"50%!"
"Hillary will destroy Bernie in IA"
"Hillary won* IA and it doesn't matter by how much - suck it"
"Who cares if Bernie wins NH by low double-digits? It's next to his home state!"
"It doesn't matter that Hillary lost by more than 20, there's Nevada!"
etc etc etc.

In other words: sooner or later, they might be right about something, but it won't be because they know any damn thing.

Actually, Sanders supporters are the ones moving the goalposts. Early on, the intellectually honest admitted that Iowa was a must win state for Sanders. Now suddenly just NH is enough to make him inevitable. lol

[IceSpear]

Oh, let me guess: Hillary supporters in here being whiny and antagonistic after being delivered a brutal spanking in her latest underperformance? I'd recommend that everybody else stop engaging them. They've all been bragging and making grand assertions for years now, with a stealthy series of goal-posts being moved every time they fall short.

"But Hillary will win with 70% of the vote!"
"60%!"
"50%!"
"Hillary will destroy Bernie in IA"
"Hillary won* IA and it doesn't matter by how much - suck it"
"Who cares if Bernie wins NH by low double-digits? It's next to his home state!"
"It doesn't matter that Hillary lost by more than 20, there's Nevada!"
etc etc etc.

In other words: sooner or later, they might be right about something, but it won't be because they know any damn thing.

Actually, Sanders supporters are the ones moving the goalposts. Early on, the intellectually honest admitted that Iowa was a must win state for Sanders. Now suddenly just NH is enough to make him inevitable. lol

Except NOBODY SAID THAT EVER.

At least two people here have. And I'm sure many pundits have as well.

[IceSpear]

Oh, let me guess: Hillary supporters in here being whiny and antagonistic after being delivered a brutal spanking in her latest underperformance? I'd recommend that everybody else stop engaging them. They've all been bragging and making grand assertions for years now, with a stealthy series of goal-posts being moved every time they fall short.

"But Hillary will win with 70% of the vote!"
"60%!"
"50%!"
"Hillary will destroy Bernie in IA"
"Hillary won* IA and it doesn't matter by how much - suck it"
"Who cares if Bernie wins NH by low double-digits? It's next to his home state!"
"It doesn't matter that Hillary lost by more than 20, there's Nevada!"
etc etc etc.

In other words: sooner or later, they might be right about something, but it won't be because they know any damn thing.

Actually, Sanders supporters are the ones moving the goalposts. Early on, the intellectually honest admitted that Iowa was a must win state for Sanders. Now suddenly just NH is enough to make him inevitable. lol

Except NOBODY SAID THAT EVER.

At least two people here have. And I'm sure many pundits have as well.

2 people = All Sanders supporters.

When did I say it was? I said it wasn't "nobody", which is objectively true.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear was literally the original Hillary hack who was convinced that Hillary would win with >70% of the primary vote, carry every state, would win the general by 20 points and planned on coming back to laugh at everybody else here who doubted that come primary time!

"Inevitable" was always the word, but it's so bad that he must now cling to the word "inevitable" in the context of "hey, she's inevitably going to slide by by the skin of her teeth because one quarter of the Democratic primary electorate doesn't know the name of the other candidate and so she'll run up the board with them"!

You have quite feverish delusions, my friend. I was predicting Sanders would emerge as the main alternative to Hillary and start polling in the 30s before they were even candidates. This was back when the "expert pundits" were opining about how O'Malley (or Warren!) would be the main alternative against Hillary. During early 2015, I had Bernie winning both Iowa AND New Hampshire in "Bernie Sanders' ceiling?" threads. I was predicting she'd win the general by 5 points back when polls showed her up 20+ points. I can find evidence to substantiate all these claims if you wish. Something tells me you have absolutely nothing to substantiate yours.

And yes, she's still inevitable, just like she always was. "Inevitable" doesn't mean winning with >70% of the vote, or sweeping every state, or even winning easily. It just means you're going to win. Will Bernie winning in his own backyard help him narrow the enormous gap among minorities? Will it help him not lose the superdelegates 355-14? Will it help stop the inevitable Obama endorsement if Hillary really looks to be in danger? Will it stop the primary calendar after tonight being absolutely dreadful for him?

[IceSpear]

IceSpear was literally the original Hillary hack who was convinced that Hillary would win with >70% of the primary vote, carry every state, would win the general by 20 points and planned on coming back to laugh at everybody else here who doubted that come primary time!

"Inevitable" was always the word, but it's so bad that he must now cling to the word "inevitable" in the context of "hey, she's inevitably going to slide by by the skin of her teeth because one quarter of the Democratic primary electorate doesn't know the name of the other candidate and so she'll run up the board with them"!

You have quite feverish delusions, my friend. I was predicting Sanders would emerge as the main alternative to Hillary and start polling in the 30s before they were even candidates. This was back when the "expert pundits" were opining about how O'Malley (or Warren!) would be the main alternative against Hillary. During early 2015, I had Bernie winning both Iowa AND New Hampshire in "Bernie Sanders' ceiling?" threads. I was predicting she'd win the general by 5 points back when polls showed her up 20+ points. I can find evidence to substantiate all these claims if you wish. Something tells me you have absolutely nothing to substantiate yours.

And yes, she's still inevitable, just like she always was. "Inevitable" doesn't mean winning with >70% of the vote, or sweeping every state, or even winning easily. It just means you're going to win. Will Bernie winning in his own backyard help him narrow the enormous gap among minorities? Will it help him not lose the superdelegates 355-14? Will it help stop the inevitable Obama endorsement if Hillary really looks to be in danger? Will it stop the primary calendar after tonight being absolutely dreadful for him?

Do you really think it's going to look good for her campaign if things aren't going well and all the sudden the sitting President goes back on his word by endorsing before the convention?  There are already reports that the administration is furious.  Why doesn't Obama just step up and end this now? 

Or you could just be engaging in wishful thinking after your candidate took a good whuppin'. 

The media might try to spin it as "desperation" or whatever, but it won't matter. What I know is that Obama is adored by Democrats, and he's not going to want to leave protecting his legacy in the hands of an elderly socialist.

As for the gloating, enjoy it while you can. I sincerely mean that. Things are gonna get pretty ugly for Bernie soon, so it's nice he could have his moment in the sun.

[IceSpear]

Adam, I notice you didn't respond to my invitation to prove your claims were BS. I took that as a yes and did some digging anyway.

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

Yeah, totes insisted she'd win by 20+ points!

Junk poll!

#itrustgravis
#hillaryisdoomed

Anyway...>Including Warren. O'Malley and Webb both at 0...lol. Looks like the Dem primary very well may end up as Hillary vs. Sanders.

But my predictions are so dumb! I never thought Sanders would be anything but a fringe 1% candidate!

I'll say just Vermont. But other potential targets could be IA/CO/MN/ME (all caucuses in states where it seems he'd play well) and NH.

WHAT! IMPOSSIBLE! I thought I INSISTED Sanders had NO CHANCE to win any state but Vermont!!!!?!?!?!?!

Perhaps an apology is in order?