Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)

[MaxQue]

The numbers for Sanders in Merrimack County aren't good so far.

He won every precinct there so far but 1 (Concord Ward 5, covering the west of the city; Sanders won the 9 other wards).

That wad and Millfield (which voted last night) are the only Hillary towns so far. I expect more once the Boston suburbs results begin to enter.

[MaxQue]

The polls just closed and they are already calling it? There are still people in line waiting to vote.

If they know, they call it the moment the polls close, regardless of that. It's an agreement between the networks.

No new person are accepted in lines, through.

[MaxQue]

Will Clinton even win a county?

Dubious, if that happens that will be one of the 3 in the south-east corner.

[MaxQue]

MSNBC: Clinton "former frontrunner"

They seem to be getting a little bit ahead of themselves.

No, they know Clinton is the favorite, so they try to help Sanders, so the campaign is the longest possible.

Longer campaign, more ads to sell, more ratings.

[MaxQue]

This is historic.

No matter how things go after NH (and no matter how the Hillary hacks are going to rationalize NH), Bernie's campaign has already achieved what nobody ever thought they could. His message and his voters will be a force to be reckoned with for the future of the Democratic party. This is just the beginning.

Beginning of What?

To the replacement of the old centrist elites leading the party to nowhere.
Will take a few decades, but it's the first step.

[MaxQue]

Awful, awful call while there are still people in lines waiting to vote. Awful for our democracy.

As cell phones should be banned in polling stations, there is no way voters would hear about it.

[MaxQue]

This is historic.

No matter how things go after NH (and no matter how the Hillary hacks are going to rationalize NH), Bernie's campaign has already achieved what nobody ever thought they could. His message and his voters will be a force to be reckoned with for the future of the Democratic party. This is just the beginning.

Beginning of What?

To the replacement of the old centrist elites leading the party to nowhere.
Will take a few decades, but it's the first step.

OK. But what will they be replaced with? Far left and/or far right personalities?

Tea Party and nativists began the transformation a few years ago into a far-right party.
For Democrats, there is multiples forces trying to push it into various directions. Some of them far-left, some of them anti-establisment, some of them towards being a working class left-wing party, some of them a academic left party.

But they all dislike inept Democrat establisment (which has been totally unable to sell Democratic policies (did they ever tried to explain to people why Obamacare is good? NO!) or to attack Republicans).

[MaxQue]

The remaining areas seem mostly rural. Could Sanders get to 60% with them?

We still have no results from Boston suburbs.

[MaxQue]

The remaining areas seem mostly rural. Could Sanders get to 60% with them?

We still have no results from Boston suburbs.

There are a lot of townships that are Boston suburbs with results already in. Manchester is almost done.

I'm talking of more populated places than townships and closer to the border.

Nashua, Merrimack, Salem, Windham, Pelham and the Derries.

[MaxQue]

Croydon seems to be glitched.

From what I see since the beginning, it's a feature of the update system.

It updates in real time from their spreadsheet. So, when they type results, Bush column is filled first and so on until Trump. If the sheet decides to update in the process, we only get the votes for the first candidates in alphabetical order, since the later columns aren't filled yet.

[MaxQue]

Looking ahead to Nevada and South Carolina, here are the 2008 demographics:

NEVADA
Men 41% / Women 59%

18-44 32% / 45 and up 68%

Party ID: DEM 81% / IND 15% / REP 4%

White 65% / Black 15% / Hispanic 15% / Asian 3%


SOUTH CAROLINA
Men 39% / Women 61%

18-24 8%
25-29 6%
30-39 16%
40-49 19%
50-64 35%
65 and up 17%

Party ID: DEM 73% / IND 23% / REP 4%

White 43% / Black 55%

This data is not right, do another round of research & posts links. Nevada has a bigger Hispanic & lower black population

Well, it's the demographics of the exit poll. Demographics of inhabitants of a state =/ demographics of its primary voters.

[MaxQue]

The remaining areas seem mostly rural. Could Sanders get to 60% with them?

We still have no results from Boston suburbs.

There are a lot of townships that are Boston suburbs with results already in. Manchester is almost done.

I'm talking of more populated places than townships and closer to the border.

Nashua, Merrimack, Salem, Windham, Pelham and the Derries.

Merrimack is 57-43 for Sanders, but it's probably the one that's the furthest from Boston.

[MaxQue]

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/new-hampshire

This says that Clinton won Croydon 17-0... Does anyone know if there is a different site I can check this against. I understand it could happen, but that's a big difference and even with a small sample, is very odd.

Decision Desk has Sanders 109, Clinton 17, Other 4.

[MaxQue]

The rest of America has just started tuning in.  A long speech is the best thing he could do.  It makes him look viable that the networks are covering him for a half an hour and that he is hitting all his talking points. 

Sanders isn't electable.

He may be the most electable Democrat in decades. With Clinton you won't independents, so you have already lost the general. Plus no connect with the youth to make the loss every bigger!

Sanders is the only hope now anyways!

Just plain wrong. If you are still here in October I will prove it to you.

You can't. Hillary is the most un-electable Democrat candidate I have seen in the last 30 odd years. Kerry, Gore, who lost were a MUCH MUCH better candidate than Hillary. There is reason why Sanders has clawed back so much & why a rookie like Obama beat her. Atleast Bill was a great orator!

Hillary is ten times the orator of Bernie. He usually comes off as an angry man.

I don't know for Sanders, but, no Hillary isn't a good candidate. If she were, she would be ending her 2nd term in a few months.

[MaxQue]

Clinton won a 3rd town, Bedford (a Republican suburb of Manchester).

[MaxQue]

I don't see why Hillary supporters are upset.

She is by far the most likely winner and it will force herself to be a better candidate. Hillary being better is good for the general, no?

[MaxQue]

OK, looks like my memory failed me in terms of timing. But go back about 3 months further and everybody was writing off Bernie. The point is that it's unprecedented for a total outsider to do so well.

Well now you're correct. But it's already been priced in that he's doing far better than anyone expected at the very beginning. This was why the "Bernie won Iowa because he made it close!" theory never held water. Once it became clear he was a serious candidate, Iowa was supposed to be one of his easiest targets.

Nobody here is arguing that Bernie is the favorite now. Of course Hillary will probably still win in the end. But by all account what happened to do was good news for him and bad news for her. That should be obvious to anyone who's not a hack.

Once again:
It's not bad news for her when SHE'S STILL GUARANTEED TO WIN SC AND DOMINATE ON SUPER TUESDAY!

You know, multiple accounts are banned, Lief.

[MaxQue]

I don't see why Hillary supporters are upset.

She is by far the most likely winner and it will force herself to be a better candidate. Hillary being better is good for the general, no?

It's about angry Berniebots and the media spinning it as if Bernie is the new frontrunner when he clearly isn't.

Like I said earlier, media does that for financial reasons. A longer race = more ads, more things to cover.

[MaxQue]

I don't see why Hillary supporters are upset.

She is by far the most likely winner and it will force herself to be a better candidate. Hillary being better is good for the general, no?

Here's my perspective:
Bernie never had a real chance to win the party nomination. He also knows this. You can tell from his speech tonight by him saying that "we need to unite as a party in a few months, to defeat the right wing extremist" But because he made a run for the nomination he could potentially isolate many young voters and potentially many under 45 voters as well. It's just lunacy when Dems could have had a cake walk to the Presidency if we all stayed united, but now it's starting to fray, and within a few months many voters COULD (and i stress COULD) become disinterested and not turn out for Hillary in the GE. This would cause the party to be fractured for no good reason.

2004: Cakewalk for Kerry, he lost.
2008: Long campaign down to the wire, Obama won quite easily.

Long primaries allow to improve candidates and already build networks in states.

[MaxQue]

Why did Sanders win by 41% in Durham (UNH), and 51% in Rindge (Franklin Pierce), but only 6% in Hanover (Dartmouth)?

Ivy League is VERY pro-establisment.

[MaxQue]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is this confirmed?

It has to, per logic.

If Hillary tied with women, it means Sanders won men 70-30. Not happening.

[MaxQue]

Hillary won a 4th town, Windham (yet another Republican stronghold).

[MaxQue]

The Hillbots in this thread are.... not taking it well, that's for sure.  What Stage are they in at this point?  

Get a life, Berniebot.

Why is it so hard to understand that I don't want my party to nominate an unelectable loon when we are guaranteed to retake the White House for another 8 years with Hillary? Look, the Republican party has become a joke. No matter what happens, Hillary Clinton is guaranteed to win at least 270 electoral votes against Trump and Cruz:

Let's not put states like PA and VA into play by nominating an angry old man who talks about a political revolution that's not going to happen anyway.

Last general election PA polls:

Trump 45, Hillary 43
Rubio 45, Hillary 42

Virginia:
Clinton leads by 17 over Trump, 4 over Cruz, 3 over Rubio
Sanders leads by 22 over Trump, 12 over Cruz, 10 over Rubio

So, what is your point now, Lief?

[MaxQue]

muh 272 firewall

If you think Trump can carry Virginia or Pennsylvania, you're delusional. Face it: She's guaranteed to win the election if she faces Trump or Cruz.

Polls says otherwise. Trump would beat Clinton in Pennsylvania.

[MaxQue]

General election polls don't mean sh*t at this point. Bernie COULD certainly defeat Trump or Cruz (and most likely would), but I know for sure that Hillary WOULD defeat them. Big difference.

Taking states for granted is the easiest way to lose. If Hillary follow your strategy, a Republican WILL be swearing in in 11 months.

That's another advantage of a long primary. She will see which ones of her advisers are incompetent and fire them before the general election.