Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) (user search)
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  Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democratic New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)  (Read 29349 times)
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: February 09, 2016, 07:20:08 PM »

The women of New Hampshire are angry. They're angry about establishment politics. Tongue

If Sanders wins tonight, I wonder whether it will end the reign of angry NH women forever? Or will they get even angrier? We will see...

The angry old women will be mad that the young women became Bernie supporters to meet boys.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2016, 08:48:25 PM »

12% of Democratic voters say they're angry about the federal government. Bernie won those who dissatisfied 64-35, so I'm guessing he does well with ANGRY WOMEN!
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2016, 08:49:46 PM »

Bernie Sanders is looking at a margin that could win him a 5-3 delegate ratio in some if not all counties. He needs around 57% in each county for that, and he's around that in all of them right now, though it's still very early.

The counties are irrelevant, it's whether he gets 56.25% of the 2 candidate vote in each congressional district that matters.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2016, 08:54:40 PM »

Bernie won statewide, and it seems like he'll break 56.25% of the 2 candidate vote in NH-02. That gives him 14 of the 24 pledged delegates. What's too close to call is the delegate that depends on whether he gets 56.25% of the 2 candidate vote in NH-01.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2016, 08:56:01 PM »

Bernie Sanders is looking at a margin that could win him a 5-3 delegate ratio in some if not all counties. He needs around 57% in each county for that, and he's around that in all of them right now, though it's still very early.

The counties are irrelevant, it's whether he gets 56.25% of the 2 candidate vote in each congressional district that matters.
Ah my bad. Is there somewhere where the votes are reported by CD ? Or do the CDs regroup entire counties, in which case : which ones ? Or I can google that...

This page is tracking them by congressional district

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NH-D
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2016, 09:01:57 PM »

Bernie Sanders is looking at a margin that could win him a 5-3 delegate ratio in some if not all counties. He needs around 57% in each county for that, and he's around that in all of them right now, though it's still very early.

The counties are irrelevant, it's whether he gets 56.25% of the 2 candidate vote in each congressional district that matters.
Ah my bad. Is there somewhere where the votes are reported by CD ? Or do the CDs regroup entire counties, in which case : which ones ? Or I can google that...

This page is tracking them by congressional district

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/NH-D
Thanks mate.

So Bernie is now winning both CDs with a 5-3 count, and At-large 3-2.

Also winning PLEO 2-1. Winning statewide is worth 2 delegates in this case.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2016, 09:13:08 PM »

The remaining areas seem mostly rural. Could Sanders get to 60% with them?

We still have no results from Boston suburbs.

Eh... probably gonna keep him under 60 if that's the case.

It should still be interesting to see if he can win 5 of the 8 NH-01 delegates.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2016, 09:14:16 PM »

Now CNN is saying that Hillary Clinton is the "real winner" of the New Hampshire primary because she's a female and she got second.

This is just sad.

Anyway, here comes her concession speech. I look forward to it.

I guess the Clinton News Network didn't bother to check their own exit poll for who NH females voted for?
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2016, 09:20:23 PM »

The remaining areas seem mostly rural. Could Sanders get to 60% with them?

We still have no rI doubt Bernie could improve that much, but esults from Boston suburbs.

Eh... probably gonna keep him under 60 if that's the case.

I don't think Bernie breaking 60% is realistic, but Hillary might go under 40%.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2016, 10:59:49 PM »

Here's a poll from May where Hillary led 62-18.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=212549.0
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2016, 11:46:09 PM »

I think we can call that last delegate for Bernie.
New Hampshire pledged delegate count
Bernie 15
Hillary 9
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2016, 11:50:32 PM »


The population center of Vermont and where Bernie lives is Burlington. The population centers of NH are the Boston suburbs. They're not at all close to each other.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2016, 12:02:12 AM »

Quote
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Is this confirmed?

Yup. CNN still has Bernie at 55-44. 66-32 among men. Big gender gap, but a landslide is a landslide.

ANGRY NH WOMEN FOR BERNIE!
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2016, 01:43:47 AM »

The problem with people who seem to think that Hillary will guarantee a victory for the Democrats in November is that they're viewing this election through 2008-tinted glasses rather than 2016 ones.


It is not the matter of Hillary guaranteeing anything: it is the matter of Sanders endangering it. A Trump presidency should be sufficiently frightening not to risk it.

If Sanders wins, it will also make it much more likely that Bloomberg enters: and, if he enters, that he will take a lot of Dem votes. he will not win, but he can elect Trump or Cruz.

If the primary is long, we will get a candidate AFTER the filling date to run as an independent in most states.

The whole Bloomberg thing is really just an idle threat. "Vote Hillary or else!"
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2016, 01:57:32 AM »


I think they went to bed. Those of you wanting to know which shade NH gets on Leip's primary map will have to wait until tomorrow.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2016, 02:04:53 AM »

Then, Sanders should make clear than party loyalty is important and make float the idea of a primary challenge to every Democrat office-holder backing someone else than the official candidate.

Hillary will have no choice, but to follow suit, given the pressure.

1)A guy who isn't a registered Democrat is hardly the ideal person to talk about party loyalty.

2)Nobody will overtly support Bloomberg, they will just sit on their hands. After all, Sanders has raised 0 dollars for state parties and Dem congressional candidates, so it's not like they owe him anything.


That's last week's attack on Bernie. This week's attack is that he did raise money at some DSCC fundraisier. Please do a 180 on your attacks like everyone else.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2016, 02:14:04 AM »

Croydon seems to have an issue. 17 votes for Hillary, 0 for Bernie, and 5 for other.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,740


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2016, 02:26:34 AM »
« Edited: February 10, 2016, 02:34:35 AM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »

Croydon seems to have an issue. 17 votes for Hillary, 0 for Bernie, and 5 for other.

DD says Sanders got 109 votes there.

CNN and NY Times both have 0.

109 votes would up him from 59.97% to 59.99%. So close.
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