Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

Republican primary voters today identify as notably more conservative than the 2012 voters…

2012 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 21%
somewhat conservative 32%
moderate 47%

2016 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 29%
somewhat conservative 45%
moderate 24%

[Gass3268]

I'm now only seeing a 4th place finish for Rubio.  Not good, not good.

Very good, very good.

Praying for a single digit Rubio performance!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Wow, New Hampshire Republicans got a lot more conservative

[IceSpear]

Republican primary voters today identify as notably more conservative than the 2012 voters…

2012 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 21%
somewhat conservative 32%
moderate 47%

2016 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 29%
somewhat conservative 45%
moderate 24%

Good news for Cruz, bad for the establishments. Not even gonna try to characterize Trump here.

[Admiral Kizaru]

Per CNN: 2/3rd of late deciders said debate impacted their vote greatly

Wow. That is horrendous news for Rubio.

You'd naturally think so but after getting my fingers burned in Iowa by assuming that the early entrance poll data indicating a high turnout of first time caucus goers guaranteed a comprehensive TRUMP victory, I'm going to wait to see how this plays out.

[Nathan Towne]

I think that Rubio will do alright. I doubt that he will do as poorly as some people are fearing that he will. I will say that I would just assume to see Christie go away after tonight. I have had more than enough of that campaign.

[Badger]

Per CNN: 2/3rd of late deciders said debate impacted their vote greatly

Wow. That is horrendous news for Rubio.

You'd naturally think so but after getting my fingers burned in Iowa by assuming that the early entrance poll data indicating a high turnout of first time caucus goers guaranteed a comprehensive TRUMP victory, I'm going to wait to see how this plays out.

Word!

And what's this about polls closing at 7 and 8?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

As I said previously, anyone else think this will be a lot closer than what the polls suggested?

[The Other Castro]

Rubio is already down 8 cents in the nomination market on PredictIt due to these exit polls.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Republican primary voters today identify as notably more conservative than the 2012 voters…

2012 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 21%
somewhat conservative 32%
moderate 47%

2016 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 29%
somewhat conservative 45%
moderate 24%

Good news for Cruz, bad for the establishments. Not even gonna try to characterize Trump here.

That could be because moderates now have the option to vote in a contested Democratic primary, unlike in 2012.  But, we probably are more truly polarized nationwide even than 4 years ago.

[Mr. Morden]

Indies as a fraction of the GOP primary voters in NH:

[Illiniwek]

I'm now only seeing a 4th place finish for Rubio.  Not good, not good.

Very good, very good.

Praying for a single digit Rubio performance!

[Mr. Morden]

Time of decision:

[ElectionsGuy]

Republican primary voters today identify as notably more conservative than the 2012 voters…

2012 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 21%
somewhat conservative 32%
moderate 47%

2016 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 29%
somewhat conservative 45%
moderate 24%

Good news for Cruz, bad for the establishments. Not even gonna try to characterize Trump here.

Probably bad for Trump, since he's getting the 'moderate' vote.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Republican primary voters today identify as notably more conservative than the 2012 voters…

2012 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 21%
somewhat conservative 32%
moderate 47%

2016 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 29%
somewhat conservative 45%
moderate 24%

Good news for Cruz, bad for the establishments. Not even gonna try to characterize Trump here.

Probably bad for Trump, since he's getting the 'moderate' vote.

Which is why I think it's going to be closer than what the polls suggested.

[IceSpear]

Time of decision:

"Last week" would be Rubio's most favorable timeframe. Awful news for him.

[cinyc]

And what's this about polls closing at 7 and 8?

New Hampshire cities have the option to close their polls at 8 instead of 7, according to The Green Papers.

[Mr. Morden]

More GOP exit data:

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/voted-live-hampshire-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=36805930

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[ElectionsGuy]

^^ That definitely doesn't sound like the New Hampshire that gave Huntsman 17% in 2012.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

^^ That definitely doesn't sound like the New Hampshire that gave Huntsman 17% in 2012.

Seems New Hampshirites became more conservative

[OSR stands with Israel]

GO Kasich

[RI]

I'm feeling more confident with these exit polls that Trump will win, though later rounds of exit polls could change that.

[Badger]

And what's this about polls closing at 7 and 8?

New Hampshire cities have the option to close their polls at 8 instead of 7, according to The Green Papers.

Thanks!

[Vosem]

I don't think New Hampshire got any more conservative, so much as in 2012 there was not a contested Democratic nomination, so there are many voters from the 2012 Republican primary (probably mainly Paul and Huntsman voters) who are now voting in the Democratic primary.

[RI]

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