Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)

[Mr. Morden]

The polls in the midnight voting towns have already closed.  See discussion here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=228635.0

The timeline for the rest of the day is as follows:

http://news.yahoo.com/next-hampshire-set-vote-nations-first-primary-191020021--election.html

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At 5pm, the networks will be given access to the early exit poll numbers.  So some time between about 5:15 and 5:30pm or so, we’ll start getting news reports from them about things like what percentage of the voters are Independents, what the top issues on voters’ minds are, etc.  But they’ll withhold the topline numbers (who is winning the exit poll) until after all the polls have closed at 8pm.

Of course, we’ll also have turnout reports throughout the day.

CNN: http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nh/

AP: link

New Hampshire Secretary of State: http://sos.nh.gov/2016ElecInfo.aspx

[Mr. Morden]

The polls have opened in Manchester:

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/697017830366146560

[Mr. Morden]

When should we start seeing stuff from the early exits? 5 PMish ET?

The consortium conducting the exit poll doesn't show the networks any of their results until 5pm.  Any supposed leaks on Drudge or whatever from earlier than that are fake.  After 5pm, the various media outlets start writing stories based on what the exit polls are saying.  So the first wave of stories on the exit polls should start appearing around 5:15, 5:20, or something like that.

However, those initial stories will *not* be about who is winning.  They'll be things like "Here are the top issues on voters' minds", etc.  Maybe, if we're lucky, they'll tell us what % of the electorate in each primary is Independents.

As time goes on, the networks might start spilling things like which candidate is winning a particular demographic, but they won't give us the full exit poll until 8pm.  Historically, I think Fox News Channel tends to be the most willing to give you details like who's winning which demographic.  But I guess we'll have to wait and see.  Not clear yet how generous the network news gods will be with their exit data.

[Mr. Morden]

Gilmore predicts a "surprising" finish for himself:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/jim-gilmore-predicts-a-surprising-finish-in-n.h./article/2582765?custom_click=rss

[Mr. Morden]

Human-cyborg relations have been set back by billions of years due to events at Rubio’s final get out the vote rally, with Rubio’s supporters clashing with robots:

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/marco-rubio-robots-clash-video-175659095.html

[Mr. Morden]

The networks aren't even shown the exit poll #s until 5pm, so it then takes about 15 minutes or more for us to get news out of them.  Should be coming within minutes.

[Mr. Morden]

First exit info from ABC:

https://twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/697180630413549569

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[Mr. Morden]

More exit info:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/new-hampshire-exit-poll-results-independent-voter-participation-n514991

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[Mr. Morden]

More exit poll #s:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/new-hampshire-exit-poll-results-new-hampshire-republicans-look-very-n515006

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[Mr. Morden]

Independents as a share of GOP electorate:

2008: 37%
2012: 47%
2016: 42% (according to early exits)

[Mr. Morden]

Republican primary voters today identify as notably more conservative than the 2012 voters…

2012 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 21%
somewhat conservative 32%
moderate 47%

2016 GOP exit poll:
very conservative 29%
somewhat conservative 45%
moderate 24%

[Mr. Morden]

Indies as a fraction of the GOP primary voters in NH:

[Mr. Morden]

Time of decision:

[Mr. Morden]

More GOP exit data:

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/voted-live-hampshire-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=36805930

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[Mr. Morden]

Top issues on the GOP side:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/new-hampshire-exit-poll-results-republicans-prioritize-economic-issues-shared-n515046

economy/jobs 30%
government spending 27%
terrorism 25%
immigration 15%

top candidate quality:

shares your values 34%
bring change 30%
candidate who "tells it like it is" 21%
electability 11%

Which of these is more important?

candidate agrees with me on issues 60%
leadership skills / personal qualities 38%

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/allahpundit/status/697193919029743617

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[Mr. Morden]

The UMass/Lowell tracking poll had this as the topline #s:

http://www.uml.edu/docs/2-8%20TOPLINE%20-%20UMassLowell-7NEWS%20NH%20PRIMARY_tcm18-230870.pdf

Trump 34%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 10%
Bush 10%

Among Indies, it was:

Trump 29%
Cruz 15%
Kasich 15%
Bush 10%
Rubio 9%

The early exit poll today has, among Indies:

Trump 29%
Kasich 18%
Bush 14%
Cruz 13%

So, the pre-election polling had Trump actually stronger among Republicans than among Indies, meaning that 29% for him among Indies could still translate into more than 30% overall.

[Mr. Morden]

CNN's early results:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/nh/

Trump 42%
Cruz 11%
Kasich 11%
Rubio 9%
Bush 9%

[Mr. Morden]

[Mr. Morden]

CNN exit poll:

Trump ~31.5
Kasich ~15.5
Cruz ~12.5
Rubio ~12.5
Bush ~11.5

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s my math on the CNN exit poll:

Trump 31.5%
Kasich 15.5%
Cruz 12.5%
Rubio 12.5%
Bush 11.5%
Christie 6.5%
Fiorina 5.5%
Carson 2.5%

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone with more historical knowledge than myself, when was the last time someone who has never held a political office won a primary? Has there ever been an example?

It last happened in 1996 with both Buchanan and Forbes winning multiple primaries.  Before that, you've got Jesse Jackson in 1988, etc.

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll:

Decided in the last few days:

Kasich 21%
Trump 20%
Rubio 14%
Bush 13%
Cruz 13%

Decided earlier:

Trump 42%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 12%
Kasich 11%
Bush 10%

Urban area:

Trump 33%
Bush 15%
Cruz 13%
Christie 11%

Suburban area:

Trump 34%
Kasich 13%
Rubio 13%
Cruz 12%

Rural area:

Trump 27%
Kasich 22%
Cruz 13%
Rubio 13%

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/697241368469598208

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