Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) (user search)
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  Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)  (Read 45809 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« on: February 09, 2016, 01:33:30 PM »
All the CNN interviews I've seen indicate there are a lot of potential Sanders supporters who have switched to supporting Kasich in the end.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2016, 01:52:15 PM »
Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on February 09, 2016, 01:50:47 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on February 09, 2016, 01:33:30 PM
All the CNN interviews I've seen indicate there are a lot of potential Sanders supporters who have switched to supporting Kasich in the end.

"Hmmm... do I want to go with the democratic socialist who is running a campaign solely on a platform of breaking up the banks and reforming Wall Street or the guy who was on the board at Lehman? I guess I'll go with the Lehman guy."

More like "Bernie's going to win NH anyway, so I might as well vote for the guy I like in the more competitive race"
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2016, 02:04:57 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 09, 2016, 02:03:27 PM
Lol a voter on Fox said they walked in planning to vote for Hillary but switched and voted for Rubio

Never underestimate how fickle and heterogeneous people's preferences can be.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2016, 04:01:12 PM »
CNN has their first exit poll results in an hour.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2016, 04:56:25 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 09, 2016, 04:55:36 PM
First wave of exit polls coming out in 5 minutes

There won't be horserace numbers, but it should be interesting anyway.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2016, 05:02:24 PM »
Quote from: Nathan Towne on February 09, 2016, 05:00:56 PM
Is everyone here of the opinion that Trump is almost certainly going to win the New Hampshire primary? Does anyone here believe that another candidate has a reasonable chance to beat him tonight?

Almost everyone seems to be of the perception that this is essentially a fight for second place in New Hampshire tonight.

From everything I've heard, Kasich's the only one who could potentially knock off Trump, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2016, 05:20:17 PM »
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2016, 05:48:23 PM »
I'm feeling more confident with these exit polls that Trump will win, though later rounds of exit polls could change that.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2016, 05:52:49 PM »
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2016, 06:07:20 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on February 09, 2016, 06:02:51 PM
Independents favor Trump 29-18 with Bush and Cruz in low-to-mid double digits

Decision Desk said that Trump is doing better with Republicans than Independents.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2016, 06:09:07 PM »

So Rubio's in at least 5th among indies.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2016, 06:34:15 PM »
Important to remember early exit polls may vary from later ones...
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2016, 06:36:29 PM »
Quote from: Thomas D on February 09, 2016, 06:35:59 PM
Does it matter these exit polls don't include working folks who are voting right now?

Yes
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2016, 06:46:16 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on February 09, 2016, 06:44:55 PM
Does anyone have a good live town-by-town results map? Not seeing one on New York Times.

I hate cartograms, but there's this one: http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2016, 06:51:59 PM »
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2016, 07:00:26 PM »
Decision Desk toplines:

Trump 35.84%
Cruz 15.12%
Kasich 14.94%
Rubio 10.72%
Bush 9.62%

Clinton 36.52%
Sanders 61.98%
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2016, 07:01:35 PM »
Quote from: YPestis25 on February 09, 2016, 07:01:17 PM
Quote from: realisticidealist on February 09, 2016, 07:00:26 PM
Decision Desk toplines:

Trump 35.84%
Cruz 15.12%
Kasich 14.94%
Rubio 10.72%
Bush 9.62%

Clinton 36.52%
Sanders 61.98%

Wait, these are exit polls?

Yes, it's an exit poll
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2016, 07:16:22 PM »
Quote from: #TheShadowyAbyss on February 09, 2016, 07:14:17 PM
Donald Trump 925 votes (--) 53.7%
 Jeb Bush 190 votes (-735) 11.0%
 Marco Rubio 166 votes (-759) 9.6%
 Ted Cruz 164 votes (-761) 9.5%
 John Kasich 113 votes (-812) 6.6%
 Chris Christie 105 votes (-820) 6.1%
 Ben Carson 31 votes (-894) 1.8%
 Carly Fiorina 28 votes (-897) 1.6%
 Other 1 votes (-924) 0.1%
 Jim Gilmore 0 votes (-925)

That's from Seabrook in Rockingham County
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2016, 07:21:19 PM »

http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2016, 07:22:29 PM »
Quote from: Moderate Hero Republican on February 09, 2016, 07:21:56 PM
Google says that Kasich, Cruz, Trump are tied at 24.3% at 1 %

Those are the midnight results.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2016, 07:26:50 PM »
Their results take a couple of minutes to stabilize.
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RI
realisticidealist
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*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2016, 07:31:05 PM »
Quote from: Nathan Towne on February 09, 2016, 07:30:35 PM
Who was allowed to vote this morning at midnight?

People in Dixville Notch, Hart's Location, and Millsfield.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2016, 07:36:22 PM »
Quote from: Castro on February 09, 2016, 07:35:42 PM
How is ddhq getting these results so much earlier before anyone else?

Possible they have people in these locations.
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2016, 07:38:03 PM »
First CNN results have Trump at 42%
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RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,786


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: 2.61
« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2016, 07:40:15 PM »
Trumpslide in the making
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