Republican New Hampshire primary results thread (polls close @7pm and 8pm ET)

[jimrtex]

For some reason, CNN has Rick Santorum on its front page montage.

I pick the dashing fellow in the bottom right corner

Looks like a kangaroo in a serape.

[jimrtex]

Who were the people who voted at midnight this morning? Why did they vote when they did?

New Hampshire let's each town administer its own elections. Towns are required to open their polls by 11 AM. So why cities might open their polls early so voters may vote before work, small towns might start later when the town clerk ambles over to the general store or school or wherever. But some small towns noticed that the the only requirement was to be open by 11 AM, which means that not only are 6 AM and 7 AM legal, so is 12:00:01 AM.

In addition in New Hampshire it is legal to close the polls if everyone has voted. This is not specific to New Hampshire. For example, in certain cases it is true in Texas.

So there has been this long tradition in small towns to open the polls at midnight, have everyone vote, and be able to report the results. It is even more dramatic in November since they can report results earlier than anyone else.

Dixville Notch has been doing this for decades, going back to at least the 1950s. It is a tiny resort hamlet in the far north, where practically everyone works in a hotel. So it is part publicity for the hotel. The hotel closed in 2011, but is now being rehabbed. All the voters today are apparently workers at the hotel.

[jimrtex]

Anyone with more historical knowledge than myself, when was the last time someone who has never held a political office won a primary? Has there ever been an example?

Washington, Taylor, Grant, Taft, Hoover, and Eisenhower won the presidencies.

Washington was a delegate to the Constitutional Convention, over which he presided.

Washington, Taylor, and Grant never won a primary. I'm not sure about Taft - in 1912, I think Theodore Roosevelt won all the primaries, but lost at the national convention.

[jimrtex]

Sounds like Christie is dropping out. That really sounds like a drop out speech.

Delegates:

Trump 11
Kasich 4
Cruz 3
Bush 3
Rubio 2

There is a 10% threshold, and any lost delegates go to the winner, so Trump takes delegates from Christie (2), Fiorina (1), and Carson (1). Rubio has a chance for a 3rd delegate, he is at 2.42 now, which would come from Trump.

[jimrtex]

I thought the threshold was 10%.  Why then are the various election sites not showing Rubio as having any delegates?  Are they just being cautious about the possibility he could go below 10% or is it something else?

Rubio has been very steady at 10.5% all night. He would be a bit higher, except I found a source for the other candidates (there are 23 of them). Cruz and Bush have been slipping some, and Trump gaining. This is presumably from cities, which had a later poll closing time.

Bush is now closer to losing a 3rd delegate due to rounding, than Rubio is to gaining a 3rd.

[jimrtex]

How far is Rubio behind Bush?  FOX lists them both as 11% with 88% in.

With 85% (on WMUR site)

Cruz 11.5%
Bush 11.1%
Rubio 10.5%

Bush is down to 2.54 delegates.

It is conceivable that other candidates are being under-reported (there are 31 on the ballot), including

Paul, Rand         1,634
Huckabee, Mike      187
Santorum, Rick      140
Gilmore, Jim      119
Pataki, George      72
Graham, Lindsey   63
Jindal, Bobby      42