Who'll win NV and SC?

[Del Tachi]

Clinton and Trump

[pikachu]

Clinton wins both, Trump wins SC and Cruz wins NV. I think NV for the Dems ends up being close than expected, while Cruz's organization plus the more conservative electorate gives him another surprise victory. (Also, I can't see Trump doing well among Mormons for whatever reason.)

[DS0816]

REPUBLICAN:

Donald Trump will carry both South Carolina and Nevada.

Ted Cruz will come in second in both but by a single-digit margin in each.


DEMOCRATIC:

Hillary Clinton will carry South Carolina.

Nevada, right now, may be more a tossup.


What's going on on the Democratic side is that Bernie is carrying the two youngest voting-age groups substantially. And one-third of his support in Iowa came from the youngest group alone. And he carried the 30 to 44 group by nearly 20 points. In New Hampshire, he won also won the 45 to 64 group.

I think Hillary Clinton has to address the two youngest voting-age groups's desire for more left wing ideas on policies … including her stance on public college tuition. Because, right now, Bernie Sanders is coming up with the ideas that these youngest groups are finding more appealing.

The momentum has changed. Earlier state polls, going deeper into the primary season, put up unbelievable numbers for Hillary Clinton to have carriage. If she doesn't move on the policy ideas which has a more favorable appeal for supporting Bernie Sanders, then other demographics (including African-Americans and Hispanics) will reduce their margins support for Hillary and shift in the direction of Bernie.

The 18 to 29, as well as the 30 to 44, voting-age groups are wanting a lot more out of this Democratic Party (meaning, going left) for what some of their candidates tend to offer in ideas for leadership.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

[IceSpear]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

Great news for Hillary. In IA she won registered Dems by double digits, and in NH they were deadlocked. This would normally be enough to make it safe for her, but since it's a damn unpredictable caucus, plus Bernie is gonna have the momentum going into it, he still has a chance there.

[Mr. Morden]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.

No, according to Wikipedia you have to already be registered by the day of the caucuses, there is no same-day registration.

[Sir Mohamed]

I still think that Rubio will be the nominee. He’ll win NV, while Cruz likely takes SC. Hillary is going to win both handily.

[Mr. Morden]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.

No, according to Wikipedia you have to already be registered by the day of the caucuses, there is no same-day registration.

Sorry, can you clarify where on Wikipedia it says that?  And do you mean that you have to be registered before caucus day both as a voter and as a member of the party?  And if so, what is the deadline for both?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.

No, according to Wikipedia you have to already be registered by the day of the caucuses, there is no same-day registration.

Sorry, can you clarify where on Wikipedia it says that?  And do you mean that you have to be registered before caucus day both as a voter and as a member of the party?  And if so, what is the deadline for both?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_caucuses#Democratic_Party_process

That's how I understand it. If the process is identical to Iowa then I don't understand why it's called a close caucus and not semi-open.

[pikachu]

I still think that Rubio will be the nominee. He’ll win NV, while Cruz likely takes SC. Hillary is going to win both handily.

What appeal does Rubio have in Nevada? He'll be coming off of a likely third place or lower showing in South Carolina, and then, somehow, three days later has to win in one of the most conservative electorates in the country against a guy (Cruz in this scenario) who just won South Carolina, and has beaten Rubio in all of the prior contests.

[MaxQue]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.

No, according to Wikipedia you have to already be registered by the day of the caucuses, there is no same-day registration.

Sorry, can you clarify where on Wikipedia it says that?  And do you mean that you have to be registered before caucus day both as a voter and as a member of the party?  And if so, what is the deadline for both?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_caucuses#Democratic_Party_process

That's how I understand it. If the process is identical to Iowa then I don't understand why it's called a close caucus and not semi-open.

NV Dems website is clear

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton & Trump, Cruz has a shot in NV

[MaxQue]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.

No, according to Wikipedia you have to already be registered by the day of the caucuses, there is no same-day registration.

Sorry, can you clarify where on Wikipedia it says that?  And do you mean that you have to be registered before caucus day both as a voter and as a member of the party?  And if so, what is the deadline for both?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_caucuses#Democratic_Party_process

That's how I understand it. If the process is identical to Iowa then I don't understand why it's called a close caucus and not semi-open.

NV Dems website is clear:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's called closed because you must register as a Democrat to take part. Don't think Iowa people have to register with the party to take part, there in no formal ID control in fact.

[Sir Mohamed]

I still think that Rubio will be the nominee. He’ll win NV, while Cruz likely takes SC. Hillary is going to win both handily.

What appeal does Rubio have in Nevada? He'll be coming off of a likely third place or lower showing in South Carolina, and then, somehow, three days later has to win in one of the most conservative electorates in the country against a guy (Cruz in this scenario) who just won South Carolina, and has beaten Rubio in all of the prior contests.

He’s latino and has more appeal to that group than Cruz. I seriously doubt that the Trumpster will win there since he insulted Hispanics so badly. I think he’ll end up third in NV, behind Cruz and Rubio (or even behind Jeb or Kasich; depends on how they perform in SC). There have only been few polls in NV, and the caucus system is difficult to poll anyway.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Important caveat: Nevada is a closed caucus for both parties.
You have to be already a registered member of the party you want to caucus for.

But I don't think there's a time limit on when you register though.  AFAIK, you can register for the party in question on the day of the caucus.

No, according to Wikipedia you have to already be registered by the day of the caucuses, there is no same-day registration.

Sorry, can you clarify where on Wikipedia it says that?  And do you mean that you have to be registered before caucus day both as a voter and as a member of the party?  And if so, what is the deadline for both?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_caucuses#Democratic_Party_process

That's how I understand it. If the process is identical to Iowa then I don't understand why it's called a close caucus and not semi-open.

NV Dems website is clear:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's called closed because you must register as a Democrat to take part. Don't think Iowa people have to register with the party to take part, there in no formal ID control in fact.

Yeah, I think you can register to vote on the caucus election day. They don't have same day registration for state run elections, but a party run caucus is free to be less restrictive.

[Mr. Morden]

I still think that Rubio will be the nominee. He’ll win NV, while Cruz likely takes SC. Hillary is going to win both handily.

What appeal does Rubio have in Nevada? He'll be coming off of a likely third place or lower showing in South Carolina, and then, somehow, three days later has to win in one of the most conservative electorates in the country against a guy (Cruz in this scenario) who just won South Carolina, and has beaten Rubio in all of the prior contests.

He’s latino and has more appeal to that group than Cruz. I seriously doubt that the Trumpster will win there since he insulted Hispanics so badly. I think he’ll end up third in NV, behind Cruz and Rubio (or even behind Jeb or Kasich; depends on how they perform in SC). There have only been few polls in NV, and the caucus system is difficult to poll anyway.

Only 5% of Nevada GOP caucusgoers were Latino back in 2012, according to the entrance poll.  Sure, that's not nothing.  But it's hardly a make or break demographic.

[Mr. Morden]

So, yeah, for the Democratic caucus, you can register on caucus day.  For the Republican caucus, however, you have to register as a Republican by Feb. 13th (this coming Saturday) in order to participate:

http://www.nevadagopcaucus.org/important-dates.html

Jon Ralston has a primer on the state of play in both parties:

http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/02/09/ralston-reports-up-next-diverse-unpredictable-nevada/80088800/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Sir Mohamed]

I still think that Rubio will be the nominee. He’ll win NV, while Cruz likely takes SC. Hillary is going to win both handily.

What appeal does Rubio have in Nevada? He'll be coming off of a likely third place or lower showing in South Carolina, and then, somehow, three days later has to win in one of the most conservative electorates in the country against a guy (Cruz in this scenario) who just won South Carolina, and has beaten Rubio in all of the prior contests.

He’s latino and has more appeal to that group than Cruz. I seriously doubt that the Trumpster will win there since he insulted Hispanics so badly. I think he’ll end up third in NV, behind Cruz and Rubio (or even behind Jeb or Kasich; depends on how they perform in SC). There have only been few polls in NV, and the caucus system is difficult to poll anyway.

Only 5% of Nevada GOP caucusgoers were Latino back in 2012, according to the entrance poll.  Sure, that's not nothing.  But it's hardly a make or break demographic.

Ok, that's a point. I expected it was higher since NV has a substantial latino population. But still not sure the Trumpster has a chance to win there.

[Why]

Clinton and TRUMP will win both

[President Johnson]

Clinton and TRUMP will win both

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I still think that Rubio will be the nominee. He’ll win NV, while Cruz likely takes SC. Hillary is going to win both handily.

What appeal does Rubio have in Nevada? He'll be coming off of a likely third place or lower showing in South Carolina, and then, somehow, three days later has to win in one of the most conservative electorates in the country against a guy (Cruz in this scenario) who just won South Carolina, and has beaten Rubio in all of the prior contests.

He’s latino and has more appeal to that group than Cruz. I seriously doubt that the Trumpster will win there since he insulted Hispanics so badly. I think he’ll end up third in NV, behind Cruz and Rubio (or even behind Jeb or Kasich; depends on how they perform in SC). There have only been few polls in NV, and the caucus system is difficult to poll anyway.

Only 5% of Nevada GOP caucusgoers were Latino back in 2012, according to the entrance poll.  Sure, that's not nothing.  But it's hardly a make or break demographic.

Ok, that's a point. I expected it was higher since NV has a substantial latino population. But still not sure the Trumpster has a chance to win there.

Trump will struggle with heavily-Mormon electorates like the Nevada GOP