In 2004, Kerry beat Dean by nearly 50% (64.5% to 17.2%); Edwards got 10% and Kucinich got 7%. In 2008, Clinton beat Obama by about 5%; Edwards got slightly under 4%. We have county results for 2008, but not 2004.
Demographically speaking, there are much larger Hispanic (about 25% of the total population in 2010) and Black (slightly under 10%) populations than the first two states. Nevada also has one of the youngest populations of any state.
The last decent (non-Overtime or Gravis) poll was from October; it showed Hillary at 50% to Sanders' 34% (Biden had 12%), so barring any new polls, there's basically no polling. (Looking at the WaPo article, Clinton goes up to 58% to 36% in a Bidenless race).
Here's a Washington Post piece about the race in Nevada.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/09/things-could-get-worse-before-they-get-better-for-clinton-post-new-hampshire/The article says that Hispanics make up a far lower amount of Democratic caucus goers than their overall numbers would initially suggest. A PPP poll showed that Sanders was doing far better among Hispanics that Blacks (Clinton leads by only 12% as opposed to 74%).
Young voters could easily propel Sanders to victory or minorities could do the same for Clinton.
It's 10 days from the Nevada Democratic Caucus. What else do we know and how can we use that to draw decent predictions?
P.S.: County maps are always appreciated if you're feeling especially brave.
