In New Hampshire, there were more votes in the Republican primary
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  In New Hampshire, there were more votes in the Republican primary
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Author Topic: In New Hampshire, there were more votes in the Republican primary  (Read 552 times)
buritobr
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« on: February 10, 2016, 05:55:33 AM »

The total votes of the Republican primary was bigger than the total votes of the Democratic primary. New Hampshire is a battleground state. Is there a correlation with the national election? Can we use the total number of votes of each party primary in order to make forecasts for November?

In 2008, there were more votes in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire than there were in the Republican primary. Obama had a comfortable margin against McCain.
In 2008, the R primary in Utah had more votes than the D primary. The difference was big. The D primary in Rhode Island had more votes than the R primary.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2016, 05:59:43 AM »

Correlation /=/ causation.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2016, 06:23:37 AM »
« Edited: February 10, 2016, 06:48:11 AM by Eraserhead »

There were also several viable candidates running in the Republican race instead of just two. Plus Sanders still got a hell of a lot more votes than any of the Republicans did.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2016, 06:35:53 AM »

Lol, that's not how it works.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2016, 07:00:08 AM »

Here are the states that voted on or before Super Tuesday in 2008 (when McCain formally secured enough delegates for the nomination), shaded by which party had more voters in its primary:



MI & FL were special cases (disqualified DNC delegates); no battlegrounds out of place otherwise. However, there were multiple examples where Democrats vastly over-performed in terms of turnout in states where they had no business being in the majority (not to be confused with Dixiecrat state/local primaries).

There's little to no connection between having the higher turnout in a primary and winning the general. The Republicans are excited like the Democrats were in 2008 after eight years of rule by the other party. Democrats, on the other hand, have been told to expect a coronation for the better part of a decade. It's not shocking at all to see Republican turnout thus far be higher in states where there are (roughly) equal numbers of Ds and Rs.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2016, 08:02:20 AM »

Here are the states that voted on or before Super Tuesday in 2008 (when McCain formally secured enough delegates for the nomination), shaded by which party had more voters in its primary:



MI & FL were special cases (disqualified DNC delegates); no battlegrounds out of place otherwise. However, there were multiple examples where Democrats vastly over-performed in terms of turnout in states where they had no business being in the majority (not to be confused with Dixiecrat state/local primaries).

There's little to no connection between having the higher turnout in a primary and winning the general. The Republicans are excited like the Democrats were in 2008 after eight years of rule by the other party. Democrats, on the other hand, have been told to expect a coronation for the better part of a decade. It's not shocking at all to see Republican turnout thus far be higher in states where there are (roughly) equal numbers of Ds and Rs.
Are you sure about Illinois? I thought Democrats shattered turnout records that year.

Anyway, the New Hampshire primary was contested for Republicans (at least for second) while Dems had a blowout. I'd have to guess that an overwhelming majority of independents went with the GOP ballot this time.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2016, 08:05:22 AM »

But I thought Bernie said he's going to increase turnout like crazy and sweep in an impenetrable Senate majority?
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2016, 08:08:08 AM »

But I thought Bernie said he's going to increase turnout like crazy and sweep in an impenetrable Senate majority?

He still creamed Shillary by 22 points.
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Shadows
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« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2016, 09:16:28 AM »

But I thought Bernie said he's going to increase turnout like crazy and sweep in an impenetrable Senate majority?

He did, huge turnout & got 76 or 79% of independents. He is doing amazing with independents which is why he is winning 15-20% against any GOP candidate.

And GOP was a circus, everyone wants to participate. There must be so many people who vote just to vote anti-Trump!
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The Free North
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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2016, 09:40:41 AM »

But I thought Bernie said he's going to increase turnout like crazy and sweep in an impenetrable Senate majority?

He still creamed Shillary by 22 points.

On worse turnout than 2008. 'Political Revolution'
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