I have this nightmare

[Torie]

To wit, that the Pub Party evolves into two new wings:  

1) the demagoguing, populist/protectionist wing, and

2) the intolerant, uncaring (e.g., Cruz refused to answer the question about medical care for the impecunious uninsured in this country, suggesting that he just didn’t care), angry religious hard line conservative wing. I switched my registration last year, due to local reasons. Now it appears that may be morphing into more national reasons as well.

How realistic is this? Should I just take another toke and chill, or is this what is in our future? And then of course the Dem party is on an adventure of its own (time to try out the Greece economic model, to oversimplify matters). Where does that leave those of us who have absolutely no use for any of the above?

[yankeesfan]

It leaves you with Michael Bloomberg

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The GOP is lost, and it's morphing more into a nationalist populist party than what it was. The traditional republicans are now in the huge minority and I don't see them coming back. I'm about to the point of giving up myself.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

You act as if that hasn't already happened.

[Torie]

The GOP is lost, and it's morphing more into a nationalist populist party than what it was. The traditional republicans are now in the huge minority and I don't see them coming back. I'm about to the point of giving up myself.

Where do we go? That's the tough part.

[The Free North]

It leaves you with Michael Bloomberg

I'm with Mike!

[Antonio the Sixth]

You act as if that hasn't already happened.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I have a nightmare that I am waking up for surgery, and as my mind clears the first thing I hear is Dr Ben Carson saying "now where did I put that sponge"

[King]

The answer is Hillary Clinton.  Practical balancer of budgets and public-private solutions.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

(time to try out the Greece economic model, to oversimplify matters).

unless you try a unified currency with every other country on the American continent, then replace your entire political and bureacratic establishment with one based on nepotism and fraud; and then stop collecting almost all revenue to rely on cheap foreign credit instead; I think you're safe from the fate of Greece.

[Torie]

(time to try out the Greece economic model, to oversimplify matters).

unless you try a unified currency with every other country on the American continent, then replace your entire political and bureacratic establishment with one based on nepotism and fraud; and then stop collecting almost all revenue to rely on cheap foreign credit instead; I think you're safe from the fate of Greece.

Yeah, that was shorthand for something that just wouldn't work out too well on the economic, fiscal front.

[Torie]

The answer is Hillary Clinton.  Practical balancer of budgets and public-private solutions.

I was thinking longer term than the immediate election. Anyway, you are assuming Hillary will win the nomination. Assume away. My gut tells me she will not. Bernie is just getting better and better on the stump, and as a human being, he is so far ahead of the pack in both parties that they are not even in sight.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The GOP is lost, and it's morphing more into a nationalist populist party than what it was. The traditional republicans are now in the huge minority and I don't see them coming back. I'm about to the point of giving up myself.

Where do we go? That's the tough part.

The establishment Dems look a great deal like Rockefeller Republicans, from my perch way out here on the left.

[rob in cal]

   Torie, one thing to consider is the congressional GOP leadership.  Do they really fall into the two camps you mention?  Is Steve King the Speaker, is Jeff Sessions the leader of the Senate? Indeed, if Steve King had actually challenged Paul Ryan for speaker he would have been handily defeated I'm sure.
   Look at the GOP congressional stance on immigration, a key indicator of strength of the populist/nationalist side.  Its not like Speaker Ryan is about to introduced anything like a reduction in immigration/birthright citizenship reform etc.  If anything Paul Ryan is an advocate of expanding immigration and expanding the pool of future Democrat leaning voters.

[Lief 🗽]

The GOP is lost, and it's morphing more into a nationalist populist party than what it was. The traditional republicans are now in the huge minority and I don't see them coming back. I'm about to the point of giving up myself.

Where do we go? That's the tough part.

You join us in the Democratic Party to try and prevent the lunatic mob from seizing control here too.

[pho]

Centrists will continue to exist in large numbers regardless of how disenfranchised they are from the major parties. Register independent and await the revolt.

OTOH, Clinton is still the presumptive nominee until Sanders can prove that he can win in closed primaries with large amounts of non-white voters. I wouldn't freak out just yet.

[SillyAmerican]

Here's the elephant in the room: Donald Trump (and Rand Paul) shouldn't run as a Republican, and Bernie Sanders shouldn't run as a Democrat. Why do they have to run within the party system? Simple answer: money. Honestly, one of the most interesting things happening this cycle is that traditional party politics is being turned on its head. Both parties are feeling it. This election may ultimately be decided by the independent/unaffiliated voters, which will really cause the pundits grief.

[BM]

The best part is that when Trump is clobbered by President Hillary Clinton this fall, the GOP voters will blame it on him not being an authentic conservative.

And then turn to Ted Cruz in 2020

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Centrists will continue to exist in large numbers regardless of how disenfranchised they are from the major parties. Register independent and await the revolt.

OTOH, Clinton is still the presumptive nominee until Sanders can prove that he can win in closed primaries with large amounts of non-white voters. I wouldn't freak out just yet.

What about hard-line ideological conservatives?  Where am I to go?

[Torie]

The answer is Hillary Clinton.  Practical balancer of budgets and public-private solutions.

I was thinking longer term than the immediate election. Anyway, you are assuming Hillary will win the nomination. Assume away. My gut tells me she will not. Bernie is just getting better and better on the stump, and as a human being, he is so far ahead of the pack in both parties that they are not even in sight.

Bernie will need ~2/3rds of all pledged delegates to actually win the nomination.  Otherwise, the superdelegates, who don't want to endanger their 1964 Part 2 60/40 win against Trump/Cruz will go near unanimously for Hillary.  They are currently roughly tied in pledged delegates, and that's before a single Clinton base state has voted.  Bernie is being overhyped.  Don't fall for it. 

I understand that now. However, if Bernie wins a clear majority of the delegates, and is still denied the nomination, Hillary will be even more wounded than she is now, and I would think some Sanders supporters would not vote for her in the General. It could potentially tear the Democratic Party apart. It would be better off, just sucking it up I would think, and let Bernie get the nomination, even if he is destined to lose, ala McGovern in 1972. So it might not be quite a hopeless for Bernie as the numbers suggest.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The answer is Hillary Clinton.  Practical balancer of budgets and public-private solutions.

I was thinking longer term than the immediate election. Anyway, you are assuming Hillary will win the nomination. Assume away. My gut tells me she will not. Bernie is just getting better and better on the stump, and as a human being, he is so far ahead of the pack in both parties that they are not even in sight.

Bernie will need ~2/3rds of all pledged delegates to actually win the nomination.  Otherwise, the superdelegates, who don't want to endanger their 1964 Part 2 60/40 win against Trump/Cruz will go near unanimously for Hillary.  They are currently roughly tied in pledged delegates, and that's before a single Clinton base state has voted.  Bernie is being overhyped.  Don't fall for it. 

I understand that now. However, if Bernie wins a clear majority of the delegates, and is still denied the nomination, Hillary will be even more wounded than she is now, and I would think some Sanders supporters would not vote for her in the General. It could potentially tear the Democratic Party apart. It would be better off, just sucking it up I would think, and let Bernie get the nomination, even if he is destined to lose, ala McGovern in 1972. So it might not be quite a hopeless for Bernie as the numbers suggest.

One other factor to consider is the economy, which is unstable at best. If there is a crash before November, Hillary is likely toast against any likely Republican nominee. Sanders would still have a strong (possibly improved) shot in such a scenario.

[Broken System]

I have this nightmare that all politicians will become dirty liars who only seek power, fulfilling personal goals, and fulfilling the goals of big donors. Oh wait, that is already how it works and we are all screwed anyway.

[pho]

Centrists will continue to exist in large numbers regardless of how disenfranchised they are from the major parties. Register independent and await the revolt.

OTOH, Clinton is still the presumptive nominee until Sanders can prove that he can win in closed primaries with large amounts of non-white voters. I wouldn't freak out just yet.

What about hard-line ideological conservatives?  Where am I to go?

The GOP will always love (and need) you, the ongoing fling with populism will be short lived. I suppose you can take comfort in the fact that Cruz is still competitive. If Ted Cruz isn't hard line enough for your tastes, I don't know what to tell you.

[Nyvin]

The answer is Hillary Clinton.  Practical balancer of budgets and public-private solutions.

I was thinking longer term than the immediate election. Anyway, you are assuming Hillary will win the nomination. Assume away. My gut tells me she will not. Bernie is just getting better and better on the stump, and as a human being, he is so far ahead of the pack in both parties that they are not even in sight.

Bernie will need ~2/3rds of all pledged delegates to actually win the nomination.  Otherwise, the superdelegates, who don't want to endanger their 1964 Part 2 60/40 win against Trump/Cruz will go near unanimously for Hillary.  They are currently roughly tied in pledged delegates, and that's before a single Clinton base state has voted.  Bernie is being overhyped.  Don't fall for it. 

I understand that now. However, if Bernie wins a clear majority of the delegates, and is still denied the nomination, Hillary will be even more wounded than she is now, and I would think some Sanders supporters would not vote for her in the General. It could potentially tear the Democratic Party apart. It would be better off, just sucking it up I would think, and let Bernie get the nomination, even if he is destined to lose, ala McGovern in 1972. So it might not be quite a hopeless for Bernie as the numbers suggest.

Hillary isn't wounded at all.  Everyone knew New Hampshire and Iowa are about as good as it gets for Bernie.   As soon as you enter the non-white liberal states he's going to fall flat and Hillary will soar.   It's just total luck that Bernie got two of his best states to run in first.   

In exit polls in NH 64% of Sander's voters would be happy with Hillary as the Dem nominee...on the Republican side only 48% of Republican voters would be happy with Trump as the nominee.   I think for Cruz the number is even lower.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The answer is Hillary Clinton.  Practical balancer of budgets and public-private solutions.

I was thinking longer term than the immediate election. Anyway, you are assuming Hillary will win the nomination. Assume away. My gut tells me she will not. Bernie is just getting better and better on the stump, and as a human being, he is so far ahead of the pack in both parties that they are not even in sight.

Bernie will need ~2/3rds of all pledged delegates to actually win the nomination.  Otherwise, the superdelegates, who don't want to endanger their 1964 Part 2 60/40 win against Trump/Cruz will go near unanimously for Hillary.  They are currently roughly tied in pledged delegates, and that's before a single Clinton base state has voted.  Bernie is being overhyped.  Don't fall for it. 

I understand that now. However, if Bernie wins a clear majority of the delegates, and is still denied the nomination, Hillary will be even more wounded than she is now, and I would think some Sanders supporters would not vote for her in the General. It could potentially tear the Democratic Party apart. It would be better off, just sucking it up I would think, and let Bernie get the nomination, even if he is destined to lose, ala McGovern in 1972. So it might not be quite a hopeless for Bernie as the numbers suggest.

Hillary isn't wounded at all.  Everyone knew New Hampshire and Iowa are about as good as it gets for Bernie.   As soon as you enter the non-white liberal states he's going to fall flat and Hillary will soar.   It's just total luck that Bernie got two of his best states to run in first.   

In exit polls in NH 64% of Sander's voters would be happy with Hillary as the Dem nominee...on the Republican side only 48% of Republican voters would be happy with Trump as the nominee.   I think for Cruz the number is even lower.

The trouble is that a strong performance in the first two states gives the media the ammo it needs to manufacture a close race everywhere else.