Atlas Predicts NH 2016: Who did the best, who did the worst?

[Ronnie]

Lol, I crashed and burned this time.  Oh well, at least I did okay in Iowa.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If y'all get a chance, a graph of Iowa vs. NH error would be intriguing as it would show who just got lucky by under/overestimating their favorite candidate consistently, who is actually good at predicting (in the context of two races of course), and who got Iowa wrong and then put too much stock in those results as race-changing.

[The Free North]

If y'all get a chance, a graph of Iowa vs. NH error would be intriguing as it would show who just got lucky by under/overestimating their favorite candidate consistently, who is actually good at predicting (in the context of two races of course), and who got Iowa wrong and then put too much stock in those results as race-changing.

Eh...2 states is a bit of small sample size. We could do it but I doubt it would reveal anything significant.

[The Other Castro]

I didn't think I'd actually end up underestimating Sanders again, but I'm pleased either way. The Republican numbers have not been great to me :/

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Lol, I crashed and burned this time.  Oh well, at least I did okay in Iowa.

Same here. First in Iowa... 55th in New Hampshire.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I was really out of the ballpark this time.

Thank you for doing this!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If y'all get a chance, a graph of Iowa vs. NH error would be intriguing as it would show who just got lucky by under/overestimating their favorite candidate consistently, who is actually good at predicting (in the context of two races of course), and who got Iowa wrong and then put too much stock in those results as race-changing.

Eh...2 states is a bit of small sample size. We could do it but I doubt it would reveal anything significant.

Obviously. No one can predict well with any degree of significance! This is for bragging rights which is even more important

[The Free North]

If y'all get a chance, a graph of Iowa vs. NH error would be intriguing as it would show who just got lucky by under/overestimating their favorite candidate consistently, who is actually good at predicting (in the context of two races of course), and who got Iowa wrong and then put too much stock in those results as race-changing.

Eh...2 states is a bit of small sample size. We could do it but I doubt it would reveal anything significant.

Obviously. No one can predict well with any degree of significance! This is for bragging rights which is even more important

Oh dont worry, there will be ample stats provided for bragging rights

[DanPrazeres]

I did well in Dems prediction, saved my round. Will it have overall separated rankings for the two parties?

[The Free North]

I did well in Dems prediction, saved my round. Will it have overall separated rankings for the two parties?

I am finishing up the combined stats for the first two contests and I will include a Dem/Rep total so you can see how you're doing in each instance.

[DanPrazeres]

I did well in Dems prediction, saved my round. Will it have overall separated rankings for the two parties?

I am finishing up the combined stats for the first two contests and I will include a Dem/Rep total so you can see how you're doing in each instance.

Thanks

[Niemeyerite]

Fun fact: if I had posted my prediction for IA here, I'd have gotten the 1st place on the Dem. side too, as my prediction was 50 Clinton 49.5 Sanders

Thank you, Maxwell!! And thanks to everyone who has congratulated me (no one yet)!

[The Free North]

Fun fact: if I had posted my prediction for IA here, I'd have gotten the 1st place on the Dem. side too, as my prediction was 50 Clinton 49.5 Sanders

Thank you, Maxwell!! And thanks to everyone who has congratulated me (no one yet)!

Where did you post your IA prediction?

[Niemeyerite]

Fun fact: if I had posted my prediction for IA here, I'd have gotten the 1st place on the Dem. side too, as my prediction was 50 Clinton 49.5 Sanders

Thank you, Maxwell!! And thanks to everyone who has congratulated me (no one yet)!

Where did you post your IA prediction?

I didn't! But I have WhatsApps which prove that was my prediction hahaha...

[PaperKooper]

Lol, 4th in Iowa to 55th in New Hampshire. 

[The Free North]

Fun fact: if I had posted my prediction for IA here, I'd have gotten the 1st place on the Dem. side too, as my prediction was 50 Clinton 49.5 Sanders

Thank you, Maxwell!! And thanks to everyone who has congratulated me (no one yet)!

Where did you post your IA prediction?

I didn't! But I have WhatsApps which prove that was my prediction hahaha...

If you made predictions before for both Republicans and Democrats, you can PM me your picks and i'll include them if they were not included before.

[pho]

Lol I suck.

[Niemeyerite]

Fun fact: if I had posted my prediction for IA here, I'd have gotten the 1st place on the Dem. side too, as my prediction was 50 Clinton 49.5 Sanders

Thank you, Maxwell!! And thanks to everyone who has congratulated me (no one yet)!

Where did you post your IA prediction?

I didn't! But I have WhatsApps which prove that was my prediction hahaha...

If you made predictions before for both Republicans and Democrats, you can PM me your picks and i'll include them if they were not included before.

OK, thank you! The problem is that in the GOP race in IA I only predicted %s for Trump (30), Cruz (23), Rubio (20) and Carson ( 8 )...

[The Free North]

Fun fact: if I had posted my prediction for IA here, I'd have gotten the 1st place on the Dem. side too, as my prediction was 50 Clinton 49.5 Sanders

Thank you, Maxwell!! And thanks to everyone who has congratulated me (no one yet)!

Where did you post your IA prediction?

I didn't! But I have WhatsApps which prove that was my prediction hahaha...

If you made predictions before for both Republicans and Democrats, you can PM me your picks and i'll include them if they were not included before.

OK, thank you! The problem is that in the GOP race in IA I only predicted %s for Trump (30), Cruz (23), Rubio (20) and Carson ( 8 )...

Oh thats a bit problematic lol. Just keep submitting picks in the next primaries and IA wont matter to much.

[mencken]

I will take 8th GOP/9th overall as a victory.

Just out of curiosity, what would be the percent error of the average of all predictions?

[The Free North]

I will take 8th GOP/9th overall as a victory.

Just out of curiosity, what would be the percent error of the average of all predictions?

I'm assuming you mean aggregating all of our predictions and then finding the error between our averages and the actual results.


Avg Rep Prediction   
Trump   28.0%
Rubio   14.5%
Cruz   13.2%
Kasich   16.4%
¿Jeb?   12.0%
Christie   9.0%
Fiorina   3.4%
Carson   2.8%
Gilmore   0.1%
   
Avg Dem Prediction   
Sanders   56%
Clinton   44%




Error on the Republican side: 17.4%
Error on the Dem side: 10.%

[The Free North]

53 people submitted full picks for both Iowa and New Hampshire. I have grouped them together in the  following standings. People who submitted picks for only 1 contest or incomplete picks will be put in a separate division to be released later. For the sake of rankings, I calculated the average error between the contests thus far for the Republican and Democrat primaries and then summed the two into a 'Total' ranking.


For the division with full picks, our current leader is TENDER BRANSON after 2 rounds of voting!

As usual open the image in a new tab to see a zoomed in picture.

[Crumpets]

Surprised I got third for the Republicans, since I'm pretty sure my top three were Trump-Cruz-Rubio.

Also, I'm not sure how you're calculating these scores or I'd do it myself, but someone should include Nate Silver's guesses in here to show how far superior we all are to him.

EDIT: His predictions were:
Republicans (polls plus)   
Trump   29.5%
Rubio   15.3%
Cruz   12.8%
Kasich   13.7%
Jeb     12.0%
Christie   6.5%
Fiorina   5.2%
Carson   3.7%
Gilmore   0.0%
   
Democrats (polls plus)   
Sanders   57.2%
Clinton   39.9%

[The Free North]

Surprised I got third for the Republicans, since I'm pretty sure my top three were Trump-Cruz-Rubio.

Also, I'm not sure how you're calculating these scores or I'd do it myself, but someone should include Nate Silver's guesses in here to show how far superior we all are to him.

EDIT: His predictions were:
Republicans (polls plus)   
Trump   29.5%
Rubio   15.3%
Cruz   12.8%
Kasich   13.7%
Jeb     12.0%
Christie   6.5%
Fiorina   5.2%
Carson   3.7%
Gilmore   0.0%
   
Democrats (polls plus)   
Sanders   57.2%
Clinton   39.9%

He actually did better than the Atlas average for NH.

[Shadows]

Predicted a Sanders win 18-22% margin (depending on turnout).

With a 22% victory, I stand vindicated.

Also predicted Iowa will be a toss-up.

Close to 2 wins out of 2